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How much are Kamikazes "worth" in terms of IPC value?

Axis & Allies Global 1940
• • • AlphaKappa

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TL;DR: I think Kamikaze tokens are worth about 5 IPCs each.

@AlphaKappa I would defer to people with more experience, but Kamikazes have two concrete or ‘hard’ purposes and at least one ‘soft’ purpose.

1. [Hard] Sink valuable ships
With their target select feature, Kamikazes can hit large ships directly and ignore cannon fodder like destroyers and subs. (or maybe to sinks a couple key destroyers to allow subs to dodge planes and surprise strike a now-exposed fleet). Calculating the value here could be as simple as figuring out the expected damage per Kamikaze roll with an equation like $Kavg = %h x $Tavg, where %h = 1/3 (Kamikazes hit on a 2) and the $Tavg = ~10 (which is half a Battleship, and also is the average between half a Carrier (8) and a whole Cruiser (12). So with those numbers, the average vlaue of a Kamikaze is 3 1/3 IPC. Of course, you’d actually want assurance you’re going to sink those targets and not simply allocate one Kamikaze per needed hit. This pushes the value of Kamikazes down considerably, since you can’t wait to see if they were effective before sending out the next wave. The laws of RNG say that you’re bound to overallocate in some cases and underallocate in others. Finally, this assumes that these targets would even present themselves in the relevant Sea Zones. However, this objection can be resolved by qualifying the question to be: How much is a Kamikaze worth assuming that valid uses present themselves? I would gloss, then, that for this purpose ship-sinking Kamikaze tokens are worth between 2-3 IPC each.
2. [Hard] Prevent Bombardment during Amphibious Landings
A single Kamikaze token can prevent all naval bombardment from a given SZ during amphibious invasion. Figuring the value in this use case is speculative and situational, but we can try with some big assumptions:
– Lets assume that the targets for bombardment are always infantry units, so a successful bombard hit is going to cost Japan 3 IPCs.
– Most amphibious invasions land either a single unit or else 4+; so lets broadly assume that the average number of bombard shots is 3, and that those shots are going to be taken by 2 battleships and 1 Cruiser. With these assumptions and the simplest setup, we can roughly guess that A kamikaze token used this way is worth $Kavg = Bh x $Tb, where BHavg = 1 5/6 (the average prevented bombardment hits = 0.66 + 0.66 + 0.5) and $Tb = 3 IPC (the cost of each prevented infantry hit), for a total of 5.5 IPCs. The real impact of the Kamikaze in the case, however, would be how much extra the attacking player has to bring to account for the lost bombardment. In this case, that’s probably close to the expected damage that those three saved infantry are going to inflict on his landing force, which for a single round of combat is about 3 IPC (0.33 hit chance/inf x 3 infantry). So our true impact number is somewhere between 3 and 5.5 IPCs. But finally, the spent Kamikaze token might actually hit something! If we go after a cruiser, say, then using the equation from 1. above gives an additional average value of 4 IPC (12 IPC cruiser sunk x 1/3 of the time). This would give the average bombardment-preventing Kamikaze token a conservative value of 4 + 3 = 7 IPC, varying wildly by situation.
3. [Soft] Deter Naval Incursions
With at least the potential to sink 6 escort ships in one go, Kamikazes have a fun ‘soft’ threat value in the game. It’s unlikely to come off that way, of course, but it’s possible that one single massive Kamikaze strike could net the Japanese player an incredible 72 IPC of impact or 12 IPC per token. This would be enough to swing a majority of endgame naval confrontations, and has to at least be accounted for by the US player if mounting a KJF. If I were the US and wanted to conservatively plan around a massive endgame kamikaze strike, I would plan to take fully three hits and so overbudget for that attack by at least 36 IPC. So for the purpose of deterring an endgame naval incursion, I would give Kamikaze tokens a value of 6 IPC each.
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Global 1942 Test Games (Daaras, Mikawa, Stu)

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L25 PTV ArtofWar (X+10) v mikawagunichi (L)

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TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: French round 7
TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: WW2 Path to Victory

Game History
Round: 7 Purchase Units - ANZAC ANZAC buy 2 submarines; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; Combat Move - ANZAC 1 marine moved from Queensland to 55 Sea Zone 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Queensland to 55 Sea Zone 1 artillery, 1 cruiser, 1 infantry, 1 marine and 1 transport moved from 55 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 marine moved from 42 Sea Zone to Java 3 fighters moved from Queensland to Java 1 destroyer moved from 47 Sea Zone to 45 Sea Zone Combat - ANZAC Battle in 45 Sea Zone ANZAC attack with 1 destroyer Japanese defend with 1 transport 1 transport owned by the Japanese lost in 45 Sea Zone ANZAC win, taking 45 Sea Zone from Japanese with 1 destroyer remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6 Casualties for Japanese: 1 transport Battle in Java ANZAC attack with 1 artillery, 3 fighters, 1 infantry and 1 marine Japanese defend with 1 bomber and 2 infantry ANZAC roll dice for 1 cruiser in Java, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits ANZAC roll dice for 1 artillery, 3 fighters, 1 infantry and 1 marine in Java, round 2 : 3/6 hits, 2.50 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 1 bomber and 2 infantry in Java, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the ANZAC and 1 artillery owned by the ANZAC lost in Java 2 infantry owned by the Japanese and 1 bomber owned by the Japanese lost in Java ANZAC win, taking Java from Japanese with 3 fighters and 1 marine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 11 Casualties for ANZAC: 1 artillery and 1 infantry Casualties for Japanese: 1 bomber and 2 infantry Non Combat Move - ANZAC 3 fighters moved from Java to 42 Sea Zone 5 submarines moved from 55 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from 64 Sea Zone to 65 Sea Zone Place Units - ANZAC 2 submarines placed in 64 Sea Zone Turn Complete - ANZAC ANZAC collect 13 PUs; end with 14 PUs Objective ANZAC 2 Control Strategic Islands: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 17 PUs Combat Move - French Non Combat Move - French 1 fighter moved from Iceland to Norway Turn Complete - French
Combat Hit Differential Summary :
Japanese regular : 1.17 ANZAC regular : 1.00
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L25 PTV Stucifer (X+12) v Nikola1975 (L)

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TripleA Turn Summary: UK_Pacific round 17
TripleA Turn Summary for game: WW2 Path to Victory

Game History
Round: 17 Purchase Units - Americans Americans buy 3 artilleries, 1 carrier, 2 destroyers, 1 fighter, 4 infantry, 1 submarine, 1 tactical_bomber and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Americans 1 submarine moved from 31 Sea Zone to 50 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 27 Sea Zone to 50 Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Holland Belgium Americans take Holland Belgium from Germans 1 submarine moved from 83 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone Combat - Americans Japanese scrambles 1 units out of 55 Sea Zone to defend against the attack in 50 Sea Zone Battle in 50 Sea Zone Americans attack with 2 submarines Japanese defend with 1 destroyer and 1 fighter Americans roll dice for 2 submarines in 50 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer and 1 fighter in 50 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 1.00 expected hits 1 submarine owned by the Americans lost in 50 Sea Zone Americans roll dice for 1 submarine in 50 Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer and 1 fighter in 50 Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/2 hits, 1.00 expected hits 1 submarine owned by the Americans lost in 50 Sea Zone 1 destroyer owned by the Japanese lost in 50 Sea Zone Japanese win with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is -4 Casualties for Americans: 2 submarines Casualties for Japanese: 1 destroyer Moving scrambled unit from 50 Sea Zone back to originating territory: 55 Sea Zone Non Combat Move - Americans 1 submarine moved from 27 Sea Zone to 48 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 27 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 27 Sea Zone to 65 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 27 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 27 Sea Zone to 31 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 27 Sea Zone to 51 Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from 27 Sea Zone to 31 Sea Zone 1 carrier and 1 destroyer moved from 11 Sea Zone to 27 Sea Zone 1 fighter and 2 submarines moved from 11 Sea Zone to 27 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 27 Sea Zone to 49 Sea Zone 5 artilleries and 11 infantry moved from Normandy Bordeaux to 113 Sea Zone 5 artilleries, 2 carriers, 3 destroyers, 2 fighters, 11 infantry, 2 tactical_bombers and 9 transports moved from 113 Sea Zone to 112 Sea Zone 5 artilleries and 11 infantry moved from 112 Sea Zone to Eire Americans take Eire from Neutral_Allies 2 artilleries and 2 infantry moved from Quebec to 109 Sea Zone 2 artilleries, 2 infantry and 2 transports moved from 109 Sea Zone to 112 Sea Zone 2 artilleries and 2 infantry moved from 112 Sea Zone to Eire 1 transport moved from 112 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone 1 artillery moved from Algeria to Morocco 1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Greece to Bulgaria Place Units - Americans 2 transports placed in 104 Sea Zone 1 artillery and 3 infantry placed in Eastern United States 2 artilleries and 1 infantry placed in Greece 1 fighter placed in Eastern United States Americans undo move 4. 1 tactical_bomber placed in Eastern United States 1 fighter placed in Western United States 1 carrier, 1 destroyer and 1 submarine placed in 11 Sea Zone 1 destroyer placed in 11 Sea Zone Turn Complete - Americans Americans collect 64 PUs; end with 64 PUs Trigger Americans 7 North Africa Beach Head: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 69 PUs Trigger Americans 6 Western Europe Beach Head: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 74 PUs Objective Americans 1 Homeland: Americans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 84 PUs Objective Americans 3 Defense Obligations: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 89 PUs Objective Americans 2 Outer Territories: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 94 PUs Purchase Units - Chinese Trigger Chinese Loses Burma Road: Chinese has their production frontier changed to: productionChinese_Burma_Road_Closed Chinese buy 1 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; Combat Move - Chinese 30 infantry moved from Chahar to Jehol Combat - Chinese Non Combat Move - Chinese Place Units - Chinese 1 infantry placed in Jehol Turn Complete - Chinese Chinese collect 3 PUs; end with 4 PUs Purchase Units - UK_Pacific UK_Pacific buy 1 destroyer; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - British 1 infantry moved from Bulgaria to Yugoslavia 2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Greece to Yugoslavia 1 infantry moved from Anglo-Egyptian Sudan to Egypt 1 destroyer moved from 113 Sea Zone to 112 Sea Zone 1 transport moved from 113 Sea Zone to 112 Sea Zone 2 fighters moved from Southern Persia to Eastern India Combat - British Battle in Yugoslavia British attack with 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber Italians defend with 1 infantry British roll dice for 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Yugoslavia, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1.83 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Yugoslavia, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Italians lost in Yugoslavia British win, taking Yugoslavia from Germans with 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for Italians: 1 infantry Non Combat Move - British 2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Yugoslavia to Bulgaria Place Units - UK_Pacific 1 destroyer placed in 40 Sea Zone Turn Complete - UK_Pacific Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 3 Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 40 Sea Zone. Rolls: 1,3 UK_Pacific collect 4 PUs (3 lost to blockades); end with 4 PUs Some Units in 40 Sea Zone change ownership: 1 destroyer
Combat Hit Differential Summary :
Americans regular : 0.00 Japanese regular : 0.00 Germans regular : -0.33 British regular : 0.17
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L25 PTV #2 ArtofWar (X+12) v Stucifer (L)

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TripleA Turn Summary: Russians round 5
TripleA Turn Summary for game: WW2 Path to Victory

Game History
Round: 5 Purchase Units - Russians Russians buy 1 armour, 4 artilleries, 7 infantry and 1 mech_infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Russians 1 infantry moved from Timguska to Yenisey Russians take Yenisey from Japanese 1 mech_infantry moved from Finland to Norway Russians take Norway from Germans 1 infantry moved from Novgorod to Northern Belarus Russians take Northern Belarus from Germans Combat - Russians Non Combat Move - Russians 1 aaGun and 3 armour moved from Finland to Norway 3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Gorky to Russia 1 artillery and 8 infantry moved from Russia to Yaroslavl 1 artillery moved from Novgorod to Yaroslavl 4 infantry moved from Novgorod to Yaroslavl 2 infantry moved from Novgorod to Yaroslavl 1 aaGun moved from Novgorod to Yaroslavl 1 aaGun, 3 artilleries and 15 infantry moved from Novgorod to Smolensk 1 artillery and 6 infantry moved from Timguska to Olgiy 3 infantry moved from Rostov to Ukraine 1 submarine moved from 126 Sea Zone to 128 Sea Zone 1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Gorky to Urals Place Units - Russians 1 artillery and 3 infantry placed in Russia 1 armour and 1 mech_infantry placed in Urals 3 artilleries placed in Ukraine 3 infantry placed in Stalingrad 1 infantry placed in Urals Russians undo move 5. 1 infantry placed in Russia Turn Complete - Russians Russians collect 39 PUs; end with 39 PUs Trigger Russians 7 Great Patriotic War: Russians met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 42 PUs Trigger Russians 2 Persia Lend Lease Lane: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 44 PUs Trigger Russians 1 Lend Lease: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 46 PUs Objective Russians 2 Spread Of Communism: Russians met a national objective for an additional 6 PUs; end with 52 PUs
Combat Hit Differential Summary :

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Axis & Allies Global 1940 House Rules Expansion

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• global 1940 • • The Captain

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The Air Fleet Commander rules have 1 minor change:

This change only concerns the air units that can be part of an Air Fleet.
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North Africa, Ragnell804 (Allies) vs TGC (Axis)

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1914 Balanced, TGC (CP) vs Ragnell804 (Entente)

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