DarthMaximus has it right - I’m looking to create an accurate odds calculator as part of a broader A&A AI project. For now, I’m able to manually predict the coefficients in a term of the numerator (the coefficients are the sum of a series), but I’m unable to reduce that to a straightforward calculation. Frustrating, because it’s the last piece I need. In the interim, I’ve substituted a truth table for the required coefficients, so the AI project forges onward.

The AI has two goals. First, to create a computer opponent that will give you a real fight. Then, a tool for developing new strategies. Really the same tool, just depends on how you want to run it.

Got pretty low specs for this thing. Nothing you can play over the internet, just a freebie you could download and run standalone mano AI mano.

What has a plane landing elsewhere after the battle got to do with figuring odds during the battle?

Anyone done any work on the math underlying A&A?

Odds simulators based on random number generators are OK but less than elegant solutions, and you certainly couldn’t craft a serious computer opponent from one. Rule of thumb stuff like multiply INF times 1/6 plus same for other units is OK too, but what it fails to reveal are the true overall combat results.

You know what I mean. Never mind the cost, what would you rather go into battle with? 2 subs and a battleship, or 2 battleships? The fractions add to 8/6 either way.

Solid math is what I’m looking for here. I’ve completed most of the math for a precise initial odds calculation, but I’m stuck on a final equation for the coefficients in the battle odds numerator. Anyone already been down this road?

I’m frustrated at being stuck this early, because I’m after bigger game ultimately.

The real overall battle odds are affected by this fact: in a battle that goes multiple rounds, the initial odds are changed by the outcome of the first dice roll - you go into dice roll 2 with different odds. Basically, with each round the strong get stronger and the weak get weaker.

The firepower curve is non-linear to boot. The strong get stronger faster than one might expect. That means there’s more or less a breakover point beyond which you’ve committed more resources than absolutely necessary to assure taking an objective. So what’s the least costly force needed to assure victory?

Kind of an important question when you’re spread thin and trying to take multiple objectives.

A different question along the same lines is “What will I need to take this objective at the lowest total cost?”. We’ve all noticed that more units equals fewer casulaties. The minimum force needed to take a goal is not necessarily the one that suffers the fewest casualties.

Could be an important distinction; after all, you may have to hold the ground afterward. And what will that cost? Ever seen Japan take out the Hawaiian navy, only to lose its expeditionary force to the US response? Who really won?

The mix you throw into a battle is a factor too. Some mixes have a surprisingly higher return on investment than others with exactly the same initial attack vs. defense points.

Chess pieces have rough numerical values of relative worth, but no grandmaster-level computer has ever been based on those alone. The same is true of A&A.

Anyway, there’s more, but this should be enough to kick off the topic.

Isn’t an entree something to eat? Maybe the message is you’re full? How would a computer know THAT?

No argument, Don. One of the other guys pointed out to me that mostly what’s talked here is Russia restricted - makes all the difference in the world! I’ve been coming from Russia strikes first, Germs cope as best they can, and it’s all up to the Japs. I will sin no more!

Newbies! Don’t lissen to any more advice from ol’ wehrmacht! That’s a rule iThink… page 16 or something…

Ahh….!
Just when I was starting to think the only good German was a dead German - and they all seem to be good!

Yer right, Germ HAS to tske W.Afrika. I tried your advice… no wunder I’ve had such a hard time down there!
vat a dummkopf I’ve been… ach!

One prob I have understanding this discussion is how you still have the Germ Baltic fleet to factor in on G1. The Russians have never left me one! They always hit with sub, tran & fighter from Karelia.

I know the rulebook stresses that AXIS players must play aggressively from the start to win, but Germany will exhaust itself against Russia quickly if you go all out.

Against Russia, play a defense in depth. They’re certain to take Ukraine the first move (you’ll really miss that fighter!). Pull back, leaving only one infantry in Eastern Europe, so Russkie armor can’t blitz. Don’t worry - you’ll retake EE on G2. Size the attack so you leave the least number of units in EE - this is a strategy of using territory as a buffer zone. Who controls EE and Ukrane will seesaw back and forth for several turns. The most important thing to remember is to hold the Allies at bay on the eastern front at the cheapest cost to you.

Don’t waste time saving Norway. The Russian sub and transport are going to take out your Baltic fleet on the first turn anyway, so you can’t reinforce them. And all 3 Allies pose a threat to Norway. They’re gonna take it. Just get your fighter out of there.

Totally take out the British fleet on G1 (German first turn), except for the Suez sub and the Indian transport.

When I’m playing Germany, the British player never faces the dilemma of what to do with the Syria/Iraq guy. I take out both Egypt and Syria on G1. With the threatened G2 invasion of Persia, Britain’s dilemma is whether to defend India or pull out and throw everything into retaking Egypt.

The question for me is what to do with the Algerian guy? My usual answer is to ignore the tempting easy conquest of French West Africa for 1 IPC and put him into reserve in Frech Equatorial on the G1 non-combat move.

From French Equatorial, he’s got several good options. Repelling a western African invasion (supported by a tank from Egypt and a fighter from Lybia) is one. He also got the option of taking Congo on G2 (and helps deter the Yanks from landing a bomber there on U1), or of reinforcing Egypt or a drive on South Africa.