Posts made by weddingsinger

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Revised LHTR, version: 1.4.1

Game History

Round: 1

Research Technology - Russians

Purchase Units - Russians
            Russians buy 8 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Russians
            3 infantry moved from Russia to West Russia
            1 armour moved from Archangel to West Russia
            2 infantry moved from Archangel to West Russia
            1 artillery moved from Russia to West Russia
            1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Caucasus to Ukraine S.S.R.
            1 fighter moved from Karelia S.S.R. to Ukraine S.S.R.
            1 fighter moved from Russia to Ukraine S.S.R.
            2 armour moved from Russia to West Russia
            1 armour moved from Caucasus to Ukraine S.S.R.

Combat - Russians
            Battle in Ukraine S.S.R.
                Russians attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 2 fighters and 3 infantry
                Germans defend with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 3 infantry
                    Russians roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery, 2 fighters and 3 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 :  3/7 hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 3 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 :  3/6 hits
                    3 infantry owned by the Russians and 3 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                    Russians roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 2 fighters in Ukraine S.S.R., round 3 :  0/4 hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 fighter in Ukraine S.S.R., round 3 :  0/3 hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 2 fighters in Ukraine S.S.R., round 4 :  3/4 hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 fighter in Ukraine S.S.R., round 4 :  3/3 hits
                    1 fighter owned by the Russians, 1 armour owned by the Russians, 1 artillery owned by the Germans, 1 artillery owned by the Russians, 1 fighter owned by the Germans and 1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                Russians win with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                Casualties for Germans: 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 3 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 3 infantry
            Battle in West Russia
                Russians attack with 3 armour, 1 artillery and 5 infantry
                Germans defend with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry
                    Russians roll dice for 3 armour, 1 artillery and 5 infantry in West Russia, round 2 :  3/9 hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry in West Russia, round 2 :  2/5 hits
                    2 infantry owned by the Russians and 3 infantry owned by the Germans lost in West Russia
                    Russians roll dice for 3 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry in West Russia, round 3 :  4/7 hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 1 artillery in West Russia, round 3 :  1/2 hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians, 1 artillery owned by the Germans and 1 armour owned by the Germans lost in West Russia
                Russians win, taking West Russia from Germans with 3 armour, 1 artillery and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 9
                Casualties for Germans: 1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 3 infantry

Non Combat Move - Russians
            1 infantry moved from Archangel to West Russia
            2 infantry moved from Kazakh S.S.R. to Caucasus
            2 infantry moved from Novosibirsk to Russia
            2 infantry moved from Evenki National Okrug to Russia
            2 infantry moved from Soviet Far East to Buryatia S.S.R.
            1 infantry moved from Yakut S.S.R. to Buryatia S.S.R.
            1 infantry moved from Yakut S.S.R. to Novosibirsk
            1 submarine moved from 4 Sea Zone to 2 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Caucasus

Place Units - Russians
            4 infantry placed in Caucasus
            4 infantry placed in Russia

Turn Complete - Russians
            Russians collect 26 PUs; end with 26 PUs

Territory Summary for Russians :

Novosibirsk : 1 infantry
    Karelia S.S.R. : 3 infantry
    Caucasus : 1 aaGun, 1 factory, 1 fighter and 6 infantry
    West Russia : 1 flag, 3 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry
    Buryatia S.S.R. : 5 infantry
    Russia : 1 aaGun, 1 factory and 8 infantry
    2 Sea Zone : 1 submarine

triplea_41404.0_Rus1.tsvg

@max334:

I am looking for anyone interested in Global. Can anyone hear me?

I’m interested.  I’ve never played by forum before, but I’ve played 10 or so games of Global 2nd edition in 2017, locally.  Same opponents, though, and they usually have me be Axis.

I’ll play either side.  I’ve never done bids or house rules.

Convoy UK back to the stone age.

A G1 buy with the carrier and, hopefully, a sub, cruiser, and your battleship parked in SZ 109 (up to 8 ipc) on G2 ought to teach him a lesson as any canon fodder subs you stick there, SZ 106 (Canada 3 ipc) and SZ 98 (Egypt 3 ipc) will hold up pretty well.

Italy should only need one sub for Cairo/Jordan.  You can take Egypt over on I3 or I4, so I don’t think its worth spending on another sub.  Japan can send subs to India to park there.  Once they’re down to under 10 ipc, losing another 2-5 a turn will be brutal.

Odds difference of scoring a hit:
at 1    /    at 2
16.6%        33%

With 2 rolls
31%            44%

with 3 rolls
43%            70%

I get it, Wild Bill.

For me, the IC on J1 is usually mop up for China.  I especially like capturing northern China because Japanese bombers can start hitting Moscow J5 from Kansu, if it all goes well.

Its also helpful if Russia or U.S. start coming down on Korea or Manchuria.

@WILD:

That’s why I advocate a hit and run on Pearl so you don’t put your Imperial fleet in harms way. You Hit Pearl w/1ss, 2dd, 2 ftr’s, 2tac’s, then NCM cruiser, bb, and 2 carriers to to Wake to pick up planes. Again you make sure a dd survives the battle to block out the US San Fran fleet from the counter attack. You have 100% odds in the Pearl attack (93% if they scramble the 2 ftrs). Your Japanese losses are minimal, and J2 you can retreat to Caroline’s. Being on Caroline’s and Malaya on J2 forces the Anz to turtle up, or at least keep their mini fleet away from you, because with out the US backing him up, little brother can’t come out and play. Keeping the US and Anz bottled up in their own harbors gives the Japanese better position IMO, and you can still start taking the other assets like Malaya and DEI because UK hasn’t got much fleet left off India, and what they have generally runs to Egypt or Mid East.

You still build 3 transports J1, and probably 2 minor ICs on J2 (for Asia/Calcutta push). I like to take Malaya J2 (Anz NO), and maybe Borneo depending on what the UK has defending Malaya. The rest of the DEI falls on J3, and you have the other half of the Japanese fleet to protect them, plus your Caroline’s fleet can also get to Java if you need it to.

I like your variation and I think I’ll try that tomorrow.

Is there a reason you don’t take Borneo J1?  Nothing can hit it if you sink the UK battleship.  I’m usually J1: Philippines and Borneo; J2 Malaya; J3 other 3 money islands (though sometimes I flip that and get the money on J2 but I really like a factory on Malaya)

I also prefer a MiC on J1 so I can get mainland tanks on J2.

@Omega1759:

@weddingsinger:

It does include both the fighter and bomber on the U.S.’ Europe side of the map.

The issue is… it looks good for the U.S.  My opponent thought so, for sure.  Especially since Japan can’t just wound its carriers right away.  They’re forced to lose planes.

But so what about being ‘out of position’?  For what?  I asked this up thread… what do you usually use that fleet for?  If I move, I get convoyed and lose Korea to the U.S. on US3.  So, then I have to stay in SZ6 anyway…

Taking DEI, the Philippines, protect transports and forcing India to turtle. The fleet doesn’t need to occupy SZ6, it just needs to dead zone it.

I do all those things with all the other ships Japan has, SZ19, etc.  What is dead zone’ing it?

It does include both the fighter and bomber on the U.S.’ Europe side of the map.

The issue is… it looks good for the U.S.  My opponent thought so, for sure.  Especially since Japan can’t just wound its carriers right away.  They’re forced to lose planes.

But so what about being ‘out of position’?  For what?  I asked this up thread… what do you usually use that fleet for?  If I move, I get convoyed and lose Korea to the U.S. on US3.  So, then I have to stay in SZ6 anyway…

@Omega1759:

Haven’t looked at this in a while, but if you skip the scramble and counterattack with everything, that doesn’t look good for Japan (my broad recollection).

That’s the scenario I ran today 10+ times.  The U.S. only survives about 1/3 the time using everything it can against Japan’s SZ6 fleet with the destroyer from Caroline Islands included.  However, checking, it looks like Japan had all its units, and had not lost anything in the original attack, so maybe IF they take a hit in the original attack on Hawaii fleet, they should lose a plane, not the sub, because they can replace the plane on the non-combat move.

Update:

So I’ve run the U.S. counter attack in Triple A game 10 times, and done this in real life once, using 2 Japanese carriers and adding a destroyer from the Caroline Islands.

Only 3 in 10 tries did the U.S. win (with 1-3 hits alive).  Usually Japan had 3 hits left, so a wounded battleship, a carrier, possibly even a cruiser seems the likely outcome, leading to ANZAC’s optional attack with a cruiser and 3 fighters.

Peak variance: Japan’s best was 5 surviving hits; U.S. had 3.

@Maxiheimer:

If I do a J1 I don’t bring my carriers to Hawaii, I only bring just enough to wipe out the fleet. I place them at midway along with the rest of the fleet from sz6 and take midway with a transport. This way if US decides to attack I can land with my planes on midway. If US attack I will probably lose my carriers but replacing them is a lot cheaper when the planes are still there. Another upside is that ANZAC cannot reach them.

I never try to take Hawaii J2 since I think its a lost cause and Japan is never able to hold it without diverting all its resource to it

Thanks for this idea.  When I thought about J2 Hawaii, it wasn’t about keeping it, just figuring out ways to make the U.S. lose money, so I like your way better, I think.

Mostly, for those against the idea of attacking the Hawaiian fleet, what else are you going to do with Japan’s SZ6 fleet?  Isn’t it a problem?  If I leave SZ6, I get convoyed and lose Korea, for instance.  If I stay, I can’t keep up with the U.S. buys anyway and by US4 I’m too far behind.

For my experience, here is the difference in income:
With J1 DOW     /     with J3 DOW
J1 40 ipc                       40 ipc
J2 58/59 ipc                  43 ipc
J3 63-65 ipc                  58-61 ipc

Japan +15 to 20 ipc; -6 to -19 (depending on losses)
UKP -17 ipc -20 (battleship)
U.S. +46 ipc -58 (fleets at Hawaii and Philippines, fighter at Philippines)

And if the U.S. counters at Hawaii, losses should be even in ipcs, but if you’re lucky, can swing to Japan’s favor by 20-40 ipcs.
So the extra income and time I get to tear down India’s income, build factories for mainland attacks (I do love me some tanks) is great when the U.S. navy can’t show up for 3+ turns.

@Elsass-Lorraine:

If it�s still there, the cruiser off NZ can move 3 spaces using the naval base to the Hawaii sea zone

Ah, yes, I missed that, though my point stands.  If the counter attack required ANZAC to succeed, it means the U.S. lost everything except a few ground forces, 1 cruiser, and 2 transports.  That would be a HUGE win for Japan if you also took out an ANZAC fighter or cruiser (or two).  You still have assets, your income goes up quickly, so you can actually keep up with the U.S.’ rebuild.  I guess it would slow down the Calcutta crush, but it didn’t slow me down on the mainland or the money islands.

@ShadowHAwk:

Russia can be in iraq the turn germany declares war.

May I ask how?  You can’t blitz a neutral and Iraq is blocked by NW Persia.  Shouldn’t it take Russia until DOW+2 to get Iraq?

@ShadowHAwk:

Why would it be suicidal?

If the US sub should Hit, let the IJN BB absorb the hit. All other hits are taken by Japans Ftr’s.
After the Battle is over, reinforce your Fleet w. Ftr’s from Japan.
Problem solved.

The US attack on that fleet will be suicidal but since japan cannot use the carriers as soakers hits will quickly go towards fighters.
After that attack the anzac can finish off the severely depleted japan fleet before it can repair or get away.

Basicaly you move there, the allies can do a 1-2 punch and destroy that fleet

ANZAC ships can’t hit Hawaii on turn 1, just 3 fighters.  I’ll be honest, if the scenario leaves Japan with a BB, destroyer, and sub or cruiser, (at Phillipines) and the only allied assets are ANZAC’s cruiser/destroyer, and maybe a plane, that’s a big win.

But usually I think  J2 you can retreat.  Or, if the the U.S. player is careless, even attack SZ 10 and convoy the U.S.  Fresh fighters for your carriers can still reach there.  Or your retreat can take you straight at ANZAC.  That would be fun, too.

@Caesar:

The reason against it because it delays the Japanese Army from getting to Boreno and the Dutch Islands to get yourself $20 while at the same time giving US an excuse to gain their NO faster thus more money in the long run.

However, the pro about doing this is that you knockout half of the US pacific fleet in one turn and it also allows you to reinforce Hawaii as much as you can to keep it as a victory city. The downfall about this is that US will try to liberate it and thus you will have to cut your fleets into 2 or even 3 sections to fight all the allies.

I still too Borneo on J1, and the rest of the money islands J2, protected by a battleship, destroyer, and possibly still with a sub and cruiser.  Plenty for keeping ANZAC away.

For money, J1 collected 40 ipc,
J2 56+ ipc

US earns an extra 46 ipc (they miss 7 a turn from losing the Philippines) or 40 ipc, of you take Hawaii J2. BUT you destroy 24 ipc at the Phillipines and 34 ipc at Hawaii that you usually couldn’t.

If you bring 2 carriers and he attacks, the loses will be about even.  Bring your 3rd and he really shouldn’t counter at all.

IF you’re a J1 fan, why not attack the U.S. fleet at Hawaii, too?  This last week I decided to try this in a game and it worked great.  As it played out, the U.S. had no naval assets gathered on Hawaii until U.S.3 and 4, but by then, Japan makes 50-60 ipc and can do a much better job of going toe-to-toe with them.  I’m not sure what would happen if U.S.’ west coast had survived and Japan simply sailed away.  Maybe toward ANZAC?

Usually I avoid bringing the U.S. into the war right away because of the massive N.O., but, an aggressive J1 that includes Hawaii let’s you destroy their fleet there and the Phillipines, rather than consolidating.  Depending on your risk, you can sail away in tact, or only bring 2 carriers and see if you can weather his counter.  I got lucky and U.S.1 counter failed.  He lost everything, Japan had a wounded battleship left, leaving the U.S. with literally 2 transports, 1 cruiser, no planes.

What I did was only 2 carriers to Hawaii, Caroline Islands carrier went to the Phillipines…
Attacks include
SZ 37: the British battleship (20 ipc) with Japan’s cruiser and either two bombers, or a bomber and a fighter
SZ 35: the Philippines, U.S. sub and destroyer (14 ipc total) with SZ 19’s 1 Submarine, 1 Battleship, 1 Destroyer
SZ 26: Hawaii, US.’ 1 Submarine, 1 Destroyer, 1 Cruiser, 1 Transport (34 ipc total) with SZ 6’s sub, 2 destroyers, 2 carriers, cruiser, battleship AND SZ 33’s destroyer (and possibly carrier)

Land attacks include Philippines, Hong Kong, Borneo, and the usual China territories.

I also changed the planes on SZ6s carriers to all regular fighters for the defense boost.
J1 ended with Japan at 40ipc, India at 10 ipc

The ideas I’m struggling with…

• should Japan send its SZ6 transport to take the Aleutians and knock down another U.S. N.O.?  IF the U.S. counter attacks your Hawaii fleet, it will need everything including the bomber and fighter on the Europe side of the board.  If it opts to send anything after your transport, that’s better for Japan, right?  But I usually send 2 transports to the Philippines and 1 to Borneo.  Or is it worth it to take Midway or something?

• and can Japan afford to send its 3rd carrier, in the Carolines, to Hawaii instead of going to the Philippines?  I think that’s pretty risky for the Philippines attack, which is then J1 2 inf, 1 art, 1 tank against 2 inf and a fighter.

I’m thinking the best move is to use all 3 transports for Japan like usual, which for me is Phillipines and Borneo, so J2 you can take the money islands, and your J1 buy includes a transport that on J2 will take Hawaii.

It does, thank you!

The sub scenario is what kicked off this pursuit for me.  Specifically, at the opening of Global 1940, What are the odds of two German subs getting a single hit on Britain’s cruiser.

I mean, its easy enough to figure out how many hits total you might get, on average, from a stack of infantry, but there are plenty of smaller strikes of trying to take down one or two units I was trying to figure out my odds for.

I play 1940 and I’m fond of at least containing various powers, especially China and India, so they can’t be a problem.  Those two examples in particular require relatively little effort at the start to put them on their heels.  If you get the Burma road, China is generally down to a stack of infantry and a fighter stuck in a corner.  Good enough for me.

I’m also fond of bombing Moscow with Japan, so I like getting China’s northern territories quickly

Well, I happened to find it with a LOT more digging… so I thought I’d share.

Apparently its easier to do it based on missing.  So…

Example is for, let’s say, submarines attacking…

Take your odds of one dice missing (2/3rd chance you WON’T get a 1 or a 2)

Then you take 2/3 to the Nth power, N being however many rolls you get, so…

Attacking with two subs gets you 2/3 to the 2nd power, or 5/9th chance you’ll miss OR, more helpful…
two attacking subs have a 44.4% chance of hitting once and an 11.1% chance of both hitting.

If you got 3 rolls, its 2/3 times 2/3 times 2/3rd, or 8/27th chance of missing or…
a 70.4% chance of hitting once.

Link to the solution in case I need it again https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/2087463/multiple-dice-rolling-probabilities?rq=1

Does anyone know how to calculate probability for multiple dice rolls?

For instance, two different rolls for an attacking sub, is it still 33% chance of a hit (still 4 out of 12 chances), 66% (two chances of 33%), or 44% (the original third plus a slightly chance of both hitting, for example).

My Google-Fu has led me to all kinds of not helpful pages (they want sum totals, like playing craps or something) and I haven’t done this kind of math in decades.

@Gargantua:

Because Russia faces the “accordion” and the “Can Opener”  it’s only real oppurtunites are on it’s turn of attack; or atleast, forcing the enemy to be weary of such attacks.

When building defensively only,  the germans don’t have to worry about making missteps or mistakes,  they are never caught on them.  When you change the game up, with russian offense,  suddenly the balance is very delicate.

How about fighters instead of tanks?  I usually am Axis, so I haven’t worked out much about Russia myself, but am curious about things like fighters, which can both be used for counter attacks without ending up at risk themselves, and scrambled in SZ 115 and maybe keep Russia’s fleet, or at least force Germany to spend more on navy than it wants.  And, as a bonus, help counter the bombings.

But maybe I just think that would be so useful because it would play well against my Germany strategies, which include constant bombings of Russian factories, amphibious assaults of Leningrad with my Sea Lion assets.

I’m also curious about Russia being aggressive into Finland/Norway.  I’m thinking next time I’m the Allies, I’ll put pressure on Germany’s navy because, among other things, it means Scandanavia is lost to them easily.