@Gargantua:
For all you math genius’s out there.
If Germany has a 50% chance of winning the Europe board.
and if Japan has a 50% chance of winning the Pacific board.
Doesnt that mean the Axis has a 75% chance of winning any given game of Global?
Is that why bids are 45+ these days?
If you’re logic would hold you could as well argue that:
If Germany has a 50% chance of losing the Europe board.
and if Japan has a 50% chance of losing the Pacific board.
Doesnt that mean the Axis has a 75% chance of losing any given game of Global?
Or
If Allies has a 50% chance of winning the Europe board.
and if Allies has a 50% chance of winning the Pacific board.
Doesnt that mean the Allies has a 75% chance of winning any given game of Global?
With the assumption that gaems never end in a draw all the above if statements describe the exact same situation. So something is wrong here, right? And Kreuzfeld already mentioned the fact these events are NOT statistical independent.
A short explanation:
If Germany is about to win, the changes that Japan is winning as well are really minimal as the US most likely spend most of it’s income in the Pacific. And if Japan is about to win the US most likely went Atlantic heavy.
Regards,
Joost