Russia could leave as many as 19 inf in Karelia if they leave Caucasus weakly defended. If Russia does this, what exactly will Germany do? What should they attack with into either/ both the Caucasus and Karelia on G1? When Germany attacks with these forces, what is the most likely outcome of the battle/s? What can the Allies counter-attack with?
Now let’s assume Russia leaves a modest 15 inf in Karelia and a few inf in Caucasus. For simplcity, let’s assume Russia didn’t attack anything on R1 so Ukraine still has their starting force. What exactly do you think Germany should do for an attack? What is the most likely outcome of the battle/s? What can the Allies counter-attack with?
I’ve run what I believe is every plausible scenario and I don’t see a lack of fighters in Karelia as a significant disadvantage for the Allies in the long run. At the end of turn 1 the Allies may look like they are in trouble since they may have lost Karelia and Egypt, but this is a facade. With this fighter movement, in order for Germany to take either or both of these countries on G1 they must have taken them so weakly that the respective German front will be brought down to a halt in a couple of turns.
I would like to add that the Luftwaffe is stretched thin as it is on G1 without this Russian fighter movement. This fighter movement makes it much worse. What should Germany do with 4 or 5 fighters and 1 bomber on G1 with this Russian fighter movement? Let’s assume 2 scenarios; playing either with 1 or 2 hit battleships. I don’t see the Luftwaffe striking hard enough at all the UK navy and Egypt and Karelia. Germany is likely to lose on at least one of those fronts or take all 3 so weakly that any Allied counter-attack will likely spell doom for the Germans.