Best posts made by The_Good_Captain

@SuperbattleshipYamato I don’t think you’d need to make two modules. I say just use the updated art. Set it apart from the other variants on TripleA. You’ve earned your spurs. I enjoy reading your comments and your updated work.

@VictoryFirst said in D-Day (VF test game) TGC (Allies) v SBY (German):

@The_Good_Captain Thank you. Lol you mean “artillery” or “art”? Just use the updated artillery?

I would use the new depictions of units. It will make D-Day a bit more unique as it deserves to be imo.

@SuperbattleshipYamato

@VictoryFirst has really outdone himself with this one. Very clean! no need to post the fighter turn anymore or roll for AA or bombers etc. NICE

A1 Combat.tsvg

@DoManMacgee said in TGC (Germany) vs Kwaspek and DoMan (Allies) - Europe Game 2:

@The_Good_Captain To give more context:

You lost an INF attacking Belo, didn’t attack Russia (2 INF) and sent a Tank to attack Archangel. Put that all together + the fact that we had 57% Odds + the fact that your air was out of position to actually punish a failure + the fact that the US/UK guys in Leningrad could have tried cleaning up if it was a near-loss and the original plan was to “try 1 round of combat and see what happens”.

I was just going to back up to Moscow if the first round of dice went badly but after 1 round of combat our odds jumped to 82% so I just rolled on at that point.

My/Our question to you Re: this game is why you pulled everything out of ME early only to about-face and go back into ME later in the game. We were anticipating a ~60% odds attack for Germany Vs. Moscow at one point earlier in the game, which made us bend over backwards to rush everything into position to keep the odds to just 60% your-favor (instead of something decisive like 85+). Yet, to our surprise, the attack never came, and you pivoted into an econ-game despite having pulled pieces out of the ME previously.

Because I already played the 60% game. Been there done that several times now -nothing new to learn there. I’ve also flipped the board economy in Germany’s favor before and forced concession without a fight in Moscow. Since the goal is to cut videos about best practices, the intent was to experiment with a mid-game attempt on the economy (again - given that I’ve already seen the script you just mentioned).

@DoManMacgee @kwaspek104

this is not a wrap. this is not over. Kasper go ahead and see if you can take berlin and win the game for allies. you have over 30% chance to take the game back

@DoManMacgee @kwaspek104 correction more like 10% if that

@DoManMacgee

Well, if you remember why you wanted to trade bombers for transports or risk the air attack on @kwaspek104 transports in the previous game, then I feel I’m pushing at an open door.

But I can articulate it further: Given that we are sitting on only a 21% chance to win as the Allies, it makes sense to place a bet in which 75% of the time, we destroy these three pieces in exchange for a single unit that is otherwise useless on defense and thereby gain an additional 20% chance to win. There is even a further argument that @kwaspek104 should have ensured this outcome by launching his bomber at those units in order to ensure fighter survival. But we would like to take the house odds at this point.

@DoManMacgee in a far too submissive position, 27% is not good enough and there were inefficiencies on our part. go again?

@VictoryFirst said in VictoryFirst (Germany) vs. The_Good_Captain (Allies) | Original Europe, Game 4:

@The_Good_Captain

Thank you for pointing that out. I was mindlessly pressing space bar in all those battles and didn’t realize you had the option to save a DD over a BB, I will keep that in mind in the future.

Thank you very much for your openness and honesty. That fighter will help soothe the pain from the North Sea battle 😀

Yeah, for the purpose of solving these games and uncovering what works best, the “ha ha, gotcha!” is not helpful. Happy to oblige. I’ll have this turn out today. Playing as the Allies in this game is incredibly complex I’m discovering.

@VictoryFirst @DoManMacgee @kwaspek104 does anyone know how to lift curses?

Game History

Round: 1

    Purchase Units - Russians
        Russians buy 8 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Russians
        3 infantry moved from Belorussia to East Poland
        1 artillery moved from Belorussia to East Poland
        1 armour moved from Moscow to East Poland
        1 fighter moved from Moscow to East Poland
        1 armour moved from Turkestan to Ukraine S.S.R.
        3 infantry moved from Caucasus to Ukraine S.S.R.
        1 infantry moved from Stalingrad to Ukraine S.S.R.
        1 bomber moved from Moscow to Ukraine S.S.R.
        1 artillery moved from Stalingrad to Ukraine S.S.R.
        1 artillery and 4 infantry moved from Russia to Leningrad
        1 armour moved from Siberia to Leningrad

    Combat - Russians
        Battle in Leningrad
            Russians attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 4 infantry
            Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 1 artillery and 1 factory
                Russians roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 4 infantry in Leningrad, round 2 : 0/6 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 artillery in Leningrad, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Leningrad
                Russians roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Leningrad, round 3 : 2/5 hits, 1.50 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 artillery in Leningrad, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Leningrad
                1 artillery owned by the Germans lost in Leningrad
            Russians win, taking Leningrad from Germans with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -2
            Casualties for Russians: 2 infantry
            Casualties for Germans: 1 artillery
        Battle in East Poland
            Russians attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 3 infantry
            Germans defend with 3 armour and 1 infantry
                Russians roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 3 infantry in East Poland, round 2 : 0/6 hits, 2.00 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 3 armour and 1 infantry in East Poland, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the Russians lost in East Poland
                Russians roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 1 infantry in East Poland, round 3 : 0/4 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 3 armour and 1 infantry in East Poland, round 3 : 2/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 artillery owned by the Russians lost in East Poland
            1 fighter owned by the Russians retreated
            1 armour owned by the Russians retreated to Belorussia
            Germans win with 3 armour and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -13
            Casualties for Russians: 1 artillery and 3 infantry
        Battle in Ukraine S.S.R.
            Russians attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 bomber and 4 infantry
            Germans defend with 2 armour and 3 infantry
                Russians roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 bomber and 4 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 2/7 hits, 2.33 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 2 armour and 3 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 5/5 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                4 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 artillery owned by the Russians lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                Russians roll dice for 1 armour and 1 bomber in Ukraine S.S.R., round 3 : 1/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 2 armour and 1 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 3 : 3/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                1 armour owned by the Russians and 1 bomber owned by the Russians lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
            Germans win with 2 armour remaining. Battle score for attacker is -27
            Casualties for Russians: 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 bomber and 4 infantry
            Casualties for Germans: 3 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Russians
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to Germany: 1 fighter
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
        1 fighter moved from East Poland to Moscow
        1 infantry moved from Belorussia to Leningrad
        4 infantry moved from Karelia to Leningrad
        1 infantry moved from Archangel to Karelia
        1 armour moved from Archangel to Leningrad
        1 aaGun and 2 infantry moved from Archangel to Russia
        1 infantry moved from Iran to Caucasus
        1 armour moved from Caucasus to Turkestan
        1 infantry moved from Moscow to Russia
        1 infantry moved from Stalingrad to Turkestan
        1 aaGun moved from Stalingrad to Turkestan
        1 artillery moved from Siberia to Turkestan
        1 armour moved from Turkestan to Russia
        3 infantry moved from Siberia to Russia
        1 infantry moved from Moscow to Russia
        1 infantry moved from Moscow to Turkestan
        1 infantry moved from Moscow to Russia

    Place Units - Russians
        8 infantry placed in Moscow

    Turn Complete - Russians
        Russians collect 20 PUs; end with 20 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans regular : 8.00
Russians regular : -5.33

@VictoryFirst said in VictoryFirst (Germany) vs. The_Good_Captain (Allies) | Original Europe, Game 4:

Well, this game in my opinion looks deceptively easy but it really isn’t. You have to consider and analyse many moves from your opponent to find what’s best to do. I have been playing some games against myself and the many things you can do with each nation really shines. I think this game is one of my favorite games right now.

Yes, the Allies are the hardest. You have to act very quickly and have a determined game plan, otherwise the Germans will capture Moscow.

@kwaspek104 ^ you will appreciate this comment. Of course I agree 100% - and I was a “nonbeliever”.

@VictoryFirst this game started out with Germany -3.17 pieces. They are +9.42 pieces. Yes, that is a scrapbook moment. All the Russian battles were 94% or better and still there was a 13 point swing. Shocking.

@VictoryFirst

Game History

Round: 6

    Purchase Units - British
        British buy 3 artilleries and 3 infantry; Remaining resources: 7 PUs; 

    Combat Move - British
        3 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from United Kingdom to English Channel Sea Zone
        3 artilleries, 1 destroyer, 3 infantry and 3 transports moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
        3 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Germany
        1 armour, 1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany
        1 armour and 1 infantry moved from Turkestan to Moscow

    Combat - British
        Battle in Moscow
            British attack with 1 armour and 1 infantry
            Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 8 armour and 1 factory
                British roll dice for 1 armour and 1 infantry in Moscow, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 8 armour in Moscow, round 2 : 3/8 hits, 2.67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the British and 1 armour owned by the British lost in Moscow
            Germans win with 8 armour remaining. Battle score for attacker is -8
            Casualties for British: 1 armour and 1 infantry
        Battle in Germany
            British attack with 1 armour, 4 artilleries and 8 infantry
            Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 7 armour, 1 artillery, 1 factory and 21 infantry
                British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Germany, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 armour, 4 artilleries and 8 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 3/13 hits, 3.83 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 7 armour, 1 artillery and 21 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 10/29 hits, 9.67 expected hits
                2 artilleries owned by the British and 8 infantry owned by the British lost in Germany
                3 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany
                British roll dice for 1 armour and 2 artilleries in Germany, round 3 : 2/3 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 7 armour, 1 artillery and 18 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 4/26 hits, 8.67 expected hits
                2 artilleries owned by the British and 1 armour owned by the British lost in Germany
                2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany
            Germans win with 7 armour, 1 artillery and 16 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -30
            Casualties for British: 1 armour, 4 artilleries and 8 infantry
            Casualties for Germans: 5 infantry

    Non Combat Move - British

    Place Units - British
        3 artilleries and 3 infantry placed in United Kingdom

    Turn Complete - British
        British collect 28 PUs; end with 35 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans regular : -4.00
British regular : -1.00

end of game.tsvg good game, flips sides? I will copy your Germany - see if you can defeat it.

@kwaspek104 @DoManMacgee

Game History

Round: 5

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 15 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Russians from Turkestan: 1 aaGun
        EDIT: Adding units owned by Russians to Caucasus: 1 aaGun
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
        2 infantry moved from Eastern France to France
        2 infantry moved from Germany to Netherlands-Belgium
        1 fighter moved from Germany to France
        2 fighters moved from East Poland to Ukraine S.S.R.
        1 fighter moved from East Poland to Netherlands-Belgium
        2 infantry moved from East Poland to Ukraine S.S.R.
        20 armour, 10 artilleries and 49 infantry moved from East Poland to Belorussia

    Combat - Germans
        Battle in France
            Germans attack with 1 fighter and 2 infantry
            Americans defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 infantry in France, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 infantry in France, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in France
                Germans roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 infantry in France, round 3 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 infantry in France, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in France
                1 infantry owned by the Americans lost in France
            Germans win with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is -3
            Casualties for Germans: 2 infantry
            Casualties for Americans: 1 infantry
        Battle in Ukraine S.S.R.
            Germans attack with 2 fighters and 2 infantry
            Russians defend with 2 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 2 fighters and 2 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 2 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                Germans roll dice for 2 fighters in Ukraine S.S.R., round 3 : 0/2 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 fighter owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                Germans roll dice for 1 fighter in Ukraine S.S.R., round 4 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
            Germans win with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is -12
            Casualties for Germans: 1 fighter and 2 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 2 infantry
        Battle in Belorussia
            Germans attack with 20 armour, 10 artilleries and 49 infantry
            Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 20 armour, 10 artilleries and 49 infantry in Belorussia, round 2 : 23/79 hits, 23.17 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Belorussia, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Belorussia
            Germans win, taking Belorussia from Russians with 20 armour, 10 artilleries and 49 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
        Battle in Netherlands-Belgium
            Germans attack with 1 fighter and 2 infantry
            Americans defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Netherlands-Belgium, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 infantry in Netherlands-Belgium, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Netherlands-Belgium
                Germans roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Netherlands-Belgium, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 infantry in Netherlands-Belgium, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Netherlands-Belgium, round 4 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 infantry in Netherlands-Belgium, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Netherlands-Belgium, round 5 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 infantry in Netherlands-Belgium, round 5 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Netherlands-Belgium, round 6 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 infantry in Netherlands-Belgium, round 6 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Netherlands-Belgium
                Germans roll dice for 1 fighter in Netherlands-Belgium, round 7 : 0/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 infantry in Netherlands-Belgium, round 7 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 fighter in Netherlands-Belgium, round 8 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 infantry in Netherlands-Belgium, round 8 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 fighter owned by the Germans lost in Netherlands-Belgium
                1 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Netherlands-Belgium
            Americans win with no units remaining. Battle score for attacker is -15
            Casualties for Germans: 1 fighter and 2 infantry
            Casualties for Americans: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        1 fighter moved from France to Germany
        1 aaGun moved from East Poland to Belorussia
        1 fighter moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Germany
        2 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Tyrrhenian Sea Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from Tyrrhenian Sea Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from Sicilian Sea Sea Zone to Libya
        1 armour and 1 artillery moved from Tunisia to Libya
        1 bomber moved from Libya to Germany
        3 infantry moved from Syria to Trans-Jordan
        1 infantry moved from Palestine to Trans-Jordan

    Place Units - Germans
        15 infantry placed in Germany

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Germans collect 37 PUs; end with 38 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans regular : 2.00
Russians regular : 1.33
Germans regular : -5.00

G5.tsvg i concede, gg

@VictoryFirst @kwaspek104

To be more accurate, this was (a whopping) 12.5 points in Russia’s favor. One thing that helps to not get carried away by MARTI and the limitations of low luck calculations is to compare raw end results surviving units to what the battle calculator said would survive. In this case, the battle was 99.9% in favor of Germany so we are more interested piece count at the END of the battle (highlighted above).

1914 does not suffer from issues of low luck calculations for two reasons: First, everything but defending tanks hit at 2, 3 or 4 and second, land battles are a single round of combat each turn. This means that low luck and real luck will be very similar in that game.

In this particular case, there was near perfect certainty that Russia was doomed no matter the outcome. The ‘fireworks’ of extra casualties for the Germans wouldn’t have any consequence on the game. Still neat though and quite a swing!

@kwaspek104 100%. This game was over somewhere before this battle…

the first three turns were friendly to the Germans as regards dice and then flipped in the later game. The Germans also repelled two attacks on two consecutive turns (turns 2 and 3) in Baltic States and Leningrad respectively.

I feel this was mitigated to an unknown extend when a similar fate occurred to the Germans two turns later. At any rate, the moscow fight opened on G8 at 80% German if they suffered no AA hits and 70% German if they suffered a single AA hit.

Berlin was still hovering around 0-1%. The fight that appears to matter is Moscow. Berlin can be managed to a “fair thee well” - or maybe it can be balanced better? not sure. For now the game appears to favor the axis to the tune of 70%ish? Need a game or two with warm dice in the first three turns as the allies to be sure.

@VictoryFirst I will have our game started in the next 24 hours

@VictoryFirst @kwaspek104

I feel that a terrible opener for Germany in the Atlantic is worse than a terrible opener for Germany on the east front because this means the western allies are one or even two turns ahead of where they should be. this translates to a much larger western army or armies available to save Russia or kill Germany (Whatever looks more effective). In effect you don’t only have IPC’s that are better spent as the western allies against Germany, but you have them a lot sooner than they otherwise should be.

@DoManMacgee @kwaspek104

the outcome in Baltic states by itself was +4.35 UK…