Best posts made by Stucifer

The AA dice came back to collect 🎲🎲

@crockett36 I think grabbing S France round 1 for at least the option of helping secure the Med is very appealing with this setup due to the very specific bid parameters. No extra UK boats in the Mediterranean is a very different situation from typical OOB or BM bids

@surfer
The restrictions only apply to carrier and land scrambles. Airbases can still scramble to any adjacent sea zone regardless of whether there are units there or not.

@crockett36 no rush - Congrats!

Wow those were some rough dice for the Brits!

A surprising number of low-probability outcomes this round!

German sub lives to dive another day, and wow! UK with a clean sweep on all of its engagements. But I’m playing with fire in Burma.

I’m out of town for the next six days, might have time to post on my games but might not. 😅

@surfer @ArtofWar1947 @crockett36 @Argothair @dawgoneit @nikola1975

As you have both said, I think it comes down to how much Germany has to pull from the Russian front to make it happen. Obviously losing London is worse, it’s a huge loss in income for the Allies. But it does stretch Germany’s strategic goals heavily in three different directions.

I think Germany has 3 goals once they capture London:

1. Hold London from being liberated,

2. Push for Leningrad for the extra NO money

• You have all those transports anyway, can also send a few to the Med for the next objective if you have Gib,

3. Give enough support to Italy so they can achieve the bulk of their NOs

#1 and #3 are much easier if Axis holds Gibraltar.

Focusing on a Gib strategy vs a London strategy costs Germany a lot fewer ground units for the Eastern front, and money spent on transports can be spent on combat units. Can usually convoy away some UK IPCs on top of that. Buy an extra strat if you lose one, pounding London major into submission is 👌👌

A small surface fleet around London, maybe a few ships in the Med (+ building subs in 95 asap) with planes in S Italy or Malta gives you a lot of deterrence against a combined fleet move to 93 or UK buildup in 100. I’ve seen a lot of allied fleets sunk there.

Axis NOs threatened by Allies at Gib:
Germany - Atlantic Wall, Swedish Steel, Control of Balkans (11)
Italy - Mare Nostrum, North Africa, Control The Mediterranean & Roman Empire (18)

Allied NOs potentiated by holding Gib:
USA - French coastal NO, North Africa (10-15) Rome (difficult)
UK - Original territories, No Subs, Mediterranean Convoy, Southern Europe Beachhead (12)

In most games you probably see a 25-point contribution towards Axis income parity from these NOs, plus the requisite territories
USA - North Africa (5) +3 territories
UK - Original, Subs, Mediterranean (9)
Italy - Roman Empire (5) + North Africa

@surfer Navy Ordnance decided to try and use the rest of the Mark 14s in stock, RIP

Can my British sub captains do better with some air support?

I’ve won several Allies games where I lost London, but it is very difficult for the axis to hold Gibraltar as well if it’s a round 3/4 Sealion. They usually haven’t spent enough money on fleet to do both unless all Italy did was take Gibraltar and load it up with a ton of ground units (might be a good strategy to try…)

That means America is coming and it’s angry. You can hold London for a while but obviously this weakens the eastern front which is where a lot more NOs are for both Ger&USSR.

I think Axis strategy of holding it by having a fleet in the Med and a decent ground presence on the Rock is more difficult to deal with as Allies because it still disables a lot of NOs, Italy usually has several turns of high income to build air and fleet, and Germany can focus mostly on planes which helps them push Russia back and at least secure their Leningrad NO (and planes in S Italy and Malta can hit Ukraine, so usually can take that factory as well)

Assumed max defense OOL in 27

I have no words, so

That Japanese cruiser is a tough nut to crack! He’s taken out 2 US subs plus the ANZAC sub + Destroyer now

I think we need to buy one of these for MARTI, maybe the threat will keep him in line…

Yeah that’s been a rough round for you. Gave you some recompense in N Belarus 😁

I will say if I was playing PtV low luck I can’t imagine Axis would get a bid. I would definitely want a bid to play Allies. I believe with a 0 bid you can be at 100% odds for Sealion on G3 with a naval buy G1 (CV, DD, tp) and 11-transport buy G2.

That’s with UK bringing the Gibraltar + Malta fighter back and building 18 infantry + a fighter for London.

@gamerman01 Quickly estimating a 95% is the strength of the ELO system, as @Arthur-Bomber-Harris noted. Even ELO should mean 50/50 win rate, being evenly matched players. A 500-point advantage is ~91% win rate.

Re: The new ELO-based ranking system

@MrRoboto said in The new ELO-based ranking system:

Now the Factor F is important: I set it to 500.
This means, that a player with an Elo rating 500 higher than the opponent is 10x as likely to win the game.

Our ELO system would be more accurate if we had a larger pool of players, as one of the issues that has been pointed out is that there is a very small pool of players.

Smaller sample size, less precise data, larger standard deviation in the results.

The top ELO guys can play against only a few others that give them a big chunk ELO for a win, but those players are also the most likely to give them a loss.

However, this is also true in games like chess, DotA and StarCraft, where the ultra-high ELO/MMR players have to play and win lots of games against lower-tier challengers to move up only 100 points in the rankings.

And for the MMR systems, usually the top world players are in the 7k-8k MMR range, so 100 points is only a 1.5% improvement vs a 5% improvement at 2000 ELO.

Perhaps we could try Global '42 as a team game round robin, using tournament rules? Adapted to forum play, this would basically just be a turn limit.

@mikawagunichi and I are planning to play it this fall at an event and it is also the version of Global that gets played at the GenCon tournament. The meta and strategies for the time-limited, board play tournament games is significantly different from forum play, so may or may not be a good fit for what you’re hoping to achieve.

@gamerman01 Count me in - will be fun!