Posts made by Spendo02

I prefer to wait until J4 to attack USA.
I put a Naval Base in Formosa so that I can force India-UK to reconsider supporting Africa with fighters.
Naval Base allows me to travel to Caroline Islands at the end of J3 for potential attacks on Anzac or Hawaii.  It also forces India-UK to play a blocker between India and SZ36 or face transports loaded with infantry confronting Calcutta on J3/J4.  I WANT this to happen because I’m moving J3 to Caroline Islands with my fleet and any purchases at defending Calcutta are another turn India-UK isn’t trying to take Yunnan.

I don’t let US enter the war until the absolute last second as I need the IPC bonus for Japan collecting those 30 IPC over the 3 rounds.

I crush Hawaii on J4 with the full contingent of my fleet and doing my best to take Hawaii.  J4 I usually buy as many destroyers as I can get because the typical US move if they lost Hawaii is to buy as many subs as possible and chase my fleet out of there.  Being able to reinforce them with 4+ destroyers makes it daunting to try to retake with a sub purchase on US4.

I go straight after China and ignore Russia(Russia’s first move should really be to attack Japan and stop the push in China.  Their loss is only 12 IPC of units that really don’t do much unless Japan has already taken the Burma Road and held it.).  I don’t stop attacking and am willing to lose fighters to take Burma on J4.  J5 is too long to try to take Burma, but you’re playing the delay tactic of keeping UK out of Yunnan as long as possible.

If USA isn’t focused on a full Pacific purchase on US3 from a potential assault on Eastern US, I keep the pressure on from Japan on J4 and move after Western US.  Losses aside, the USA has to choose which side to defend and one side’s doing to lose.  With DC in the East and getting the heavier defense, it makes sense for Japan to all out attack the West after taking Hawaii.  If US goes full Pacific, I sit tight in Hawaii for 2-3 turns, trying to reinforce Hawaii with transports and infantry.  Holding Hawaii and forcing US purchases aimed at re-taking Hawaii buy even more time for Germany to handle the UK/Russia in Europe.  Each turn the US isn’t threatening a European invasion is another turn the Axis are winning.  Especially if G4 doesn’t actually attack Eastern US and continues with Sealion from SZ91 a turn later and with an Italian softening of UK forces in SZ109.

Its a huge risk.  Moving the G3 Sealion to SZ91 gives the US 52 IPC to spend in SZ101 which most likely will be 2 BB + 1 Fighter.  It can probably move 2 Fighters to Eastern US from the Pacific SZ to Scramble.  Assuming at least 1 AC was placed in SZ101 in the first 2 US turns, your looking at breaking through 1 AC + 2 Fighters, 2 BB, 1 Cruiser, 2 Fighters to Scramble.

The Italian Fleet in a best case scenario will be able to land everything but its starting Transport and Destroyer plus 1 Sub.  The US will still be able to absorb 3 hits before losing any ships and its first round counter included 4d6 for Fighters against all 3 non-subs plus 2d6 for the BB.  Italy is going to need a high luck roll to sink much on the first round of combat, although it may be able to sacrifice its subs to sink the Cruiser on a round 2 attack and if real lucky cripple one of the two BB or the AC.

Basically the Sealion is going to have to do the heavy lifting to get through all of that on a G4 attack at SZ101.  Any later round attacks aren’t reasonable as the US’s income and unit placement changes drastically.

It is tempting, however, to see that the Eastern US likely will have 1 Inf, 3 Mech, 1 Art, 1 Tank as its only ground units in Eastern US.  Against that, you really only need 5 Transports to be 95% certain of a victory  (1 Inf, 1 Art in each).  4 Transports is 83% Certain and 3 transports = failed Amphib in my book at 37% certain.  Assuming the US places no land units on US1 through 3, you can probably adjust your Sealion accordingly for more offensive sea units to break through SZ101 and land the Amphib.

The other significant advantage is that by posing this threat to Eastern US, is that the US won’t be moving a carrier and 2 fighters onto Hawaii for the J4 attack there.  In fact, it may entirely withdraw to the Western US from Hawaii which is very advantageous to the Japanese fight in the Pacific due to the advantages of a defending fleet versus an attacking fleet at Hawaii while being able to project onto the Western US after taking Hawaii.

If you net the losses in the small attack (presumed Russian counter) into the big attack on Moscow (which assumes nothing else changed):

Its still a 90-93% win for Russia with the same amount of losses.

That means net-net you didn’t change a damn thing by counter attacking and were better off playing turtle unless that counter attack bought you another turn before Germany got to Moscow.

@Gargantua:

DON’T ATTACK with Germany is the bottom line, I can tell you that without running the dice…

What would the odds be of 5 inf 2 fig and 1 tac bomber -vs- 7 inf?

Not too bad…  5 + 6 + 4 = 15  over 8 hits, vs 14 over 7 hits…

Thing is you are losing guys at 1, to his guys at 2  so… first round  looks like this…

2.5 hits vs 2.2 hits…   Assume 2 each

Second round

2.2 vs 1.8   assume 2 and 2…

In your last round…  My guts going to tell me, you’ll have 1 or 2 inf + planes vs your opponents 1 or 2 inf…

So it all really depends on your luck in the first round, and your purpose for the attack…  IE, is it his capital?  Is it an NO?  can you risk planes?  Do you have to keep your INF alive?  etc etc…

79-81% chance to win that fight as the attacker.  You lose around 21 IPCs at the cost of the defender’s 19 IPC.  My guess is somewhere around losing 4 Inf and a Fighter when it is all said and done.  Its uncommon from a land battle to not want to take the territory you are attacking, so you’d have to take that last fighter as a loss in order to take the territory and collect the IPC’s from it.

To be clear, I only asked if you had ever considered it.  Never asked you how to do it as I have my own ideas on it and if its possible.  Don’t know where all the hate just boiled up from as you’ve been cordial in responses to date.

YG,

Thats what I figured you were getting at on the other thread.

You ever consider NOT doing a Sealion on G3 and instead staging it at SZ91 (assuming Axis control Gibraltar) and going straight after USA’s first big payday and hitting USA on G4?  Possibly throwing in the Italian fleet on Italy3?

I liked the “token” concept where you rolled each turn until you obtained a breakthrough.  I wouldn’t mind seeing something like 6 for T1 roll, 4 if you want to roll on T2, 2 if you want to roll on T3 and 1 for a roll every turn after it.

Something like a declining cost because of prior research done.  The biggest benefit is that with research upgrades, it becomes significantly harder to predict moves as the landscape of the game changes when subs can attack at 3 or artillery can support 2 infantry.

Personally I don’t split my forces, I made that mistake before.  3 stacks of red chips under an Infantry makes it hard for Russia to counter each step forward Germany takes.  Splitting it into 2 red chips one way, 1 red chip the other just allows Russia to stage an effective counter against any big fight in either Leningrad, the Ukraine or Stalingrad.  Keeping them together forces Russia to retreat each step of the way or face massive losses trying to counter.

Thats from my experience at least, and I’ve played about 10 games of this version so far.

1 in 4 chance it works.  Its enough for Germany to warrant spending all the IPC to gain the 20-something IPC from the UK, but not high enough that its a toss of a coin on the viability of playing the UK in Europe until liberated.  Something around a dice roll of 2d6 looking for a 2 or less works.

However a lost Sealion should cost Germany immensely to maintain any form of a navy following a failed attempt.
Such as Germany can only produce destroyers and subs following any form of failed land invasion on UK.

IMO a full on German assault (fail or win - this one already does, no?) on UK should advance US the at-war NO IPC at the beginning of the following US turn.

This is similar to what I think would have happened if the UK actually experienced a German invasion on the ground and makes it the equivalent of Hawaii in terms of activating the US earlier than an end of US3.

Not counting the AA guns my calc shows low 90% wins for Russia, less than 1% chance of MAD with around 160 IPC loss for Russia which is most of their infantry.

Note I don’t have a calculator for the AA guns as casualties.

That specific point is the reason I lose games  :?

For some reason I thought fighters could not hit subs, perhaps that was an old house rule or a relic from a prior incarnation of A&A… Or is that a result of the presence of the destroyer?

Room for adjustment then because then 111 could also potentially scramble.  I’ll have to re-look some moves then and get back to you tomorrow.

However how would multiple opportunities to scramble work out between SBR and Sea Battles?  Have to choose only 1?

Can’t you do both?

SZ112: 1 Cruiser (UK), 1 Cruiser (FR)
Battleship (113)
Cruiser (113)
Fighter (Slovakia)
TacB (Poland)

99% Win

SZ 109: 1 Destroyer, 1 Transport
Sub (SZ108)
Sub (SZ103)

88% Win

SZ 106: 1 Destroyer, 1 Transport
Sub (SZ117)
Sub (SZ118)

88% Win

SZ 111: 1 Battleship, 1 Destroyer
Sub (SZ124)
Fighter (Norway)
Fighter (Holland)
TacB (Germany)

92% Win

2 StratB (Germany) on MIC
2 TacB (W.Germany) on AB
2 Fighter Escort (W.Germany)

Only real change to this is you have less fighters as escorts and you go after just the AB/NB.  I’m still undecided which is more valuable to target.  NB if you don’t take out that battleship in SZ111 or that transport in SZ109.  AB if you get them all.

I wasn’t really looking at the broad picture, but a specific and extreme display of what SRB does.  I saw SRB completely shut down Germany, and quickly.

Destroyer in the Gib Straights negates the ability for enemy subs to cross undetected, no?

CJ:

I agree the naval conflicts will be in question.  The subs are a preparatory purchase for the impending naval battle on G3/G4.  I had also considered purchasing a carrier and playing turtle with G1 but I didn’t look at numbers and odds.  I purely looked at it from a crush the MIC on G1 as seen below.  Also to note, the SRB says nothing about AA guns firing in the sequence as the complexes all have their own “built-in” AA guns.  This is what makes this a viable strategy.

Escorts (9d6) = 35 / 28 / 13
Interceptors (3d6) = 35 / 7 / 0.5

Germany loses 1 Escort (Fighter)
UK loses 2 Interceptors (2 Fighters)

MIC / AB (2d6) = 28 / 3
NB (1d6) = 17

Germany Loses 1 TacB

MIC takes on average 11 Tokens
NB/AB takes on average 3.5 or 6 Tokens on AB depending on what gets hit
This is assuming the hit was not on the MIC fire

Cumulative Complex odds (5d6) = 40 / 16 / 3 / 0.3 / 0.01

This further cements the loss of one of the SRB planes

UK puts on 6 Infantry at a cost of 25 IPC versus 9 Infantry at a cost of 27 IPC
AB/NB disabled

Italy SRB

Interceptor (1d6) = 17

Complex (1d6) = 16

MIC SRB = 2 + 3.5 = 5.5 more tokens

G2 SRB

No Escorts, no Interceptors (Attack UK Navy?)

MIC (4d6) = 38 / 11 / 1 / 0.7

Germany loses 1 StratB

UK MIC has 5.5 tokens on it from a potential Italian SRB + 6/8 guaranteed from 3/4 StratB + on average 10.5 - 14 more from the die rolls = in excess of 20 tokens
AB and NB still not functioning

UK has to spend 11 IPC to purchase first unit on UK2.  I forget what UK2 generally ends up with for IPC, but I don’t think its much more than low 20’s for IPC’s?  That means its best purchase is what 3-4 more infantry or a very expensive capital ship for the impending naval battle on G3?

Also realize G2 purchase is most likely the navy required to decimate UK on G3.  G2 has 70 or so IPC to spend so you can block in 2-3 Battleships and if you turtled that puts you at 3-4 Battleships the 3 Subs from G1, not to mention the UK battleships may not be repairing from initial sub attacks (I’d pick one of the fleets and send all my subs after it on G1) So you may be able to pick some of the fleet off with an initial wave of fighters on G2 or any remaining subs kicking around from G1.  Most of this is just me thinking outloud because I have yet to look at the situation Germany faces (and you may be able to just send 2 escorts instead of 4 to eliminate 2 of the fleets in the Atlantic)

So with the new SBR, I thought about G1’s first move being to decimate the MIC in the UK

Germany can fly the following in for a run on the Complexes:

2 StratB (Leave Germany, Land Holland) on the MIC
2 TacB (Leave W.Germany, Land Holland) on the AB
1 TacB (Leave W.Germany, Land Holland) on the NB
1 Escort Fighter (Leave Holland, Land Holland)
2 Escort Fighter (Leave W.Germany, Land Holland)
1 Escort Fighter (Leave Norway, Land Holland)

UK Scramble 2 Fighters (UK)
France Scramble 1 Fighter (UK)

All Aircraft roll @1:
Germany takes out 1, possibly 2 interceptors?
UK/France takes out 1 Escort?

Bombing Run Commences:

MIC rolls 2 die @1
AB rolls 2 die @1
NB rolls 1 die @1

I’d give it good odds for at least one hit.  Lets say its on the NB roll, so scratch the TacB and the roll on the NB.

So now you have some problems for the UK, lets look at the StratB rolls against the MIC:

Guaranteed 4 hits against the MIC (+2 on die rolls).  Snake-Eyes gives +2 more for a total 6 counters on the UK MIC (Worst case scenario for G1).  Average sum of die roll in probability numbers is 7.  So 7 + guaranteed 4 means UK MIC has 11 counters on it and zero unit placement without paying to place.

TacB against the AB gives you just the probability of a die sum of 7.  At best, thats snake-eyes for the UK but turns the AB off to scramble for a G2/3 attack at sea without the UK spending at a minimum of 2 IPC and likely 6 IPC.

Net that means:
UK has to spend 2-6 IPC to turn on the AB for scrambles
UK has to spend an extra 2 IPC for the first unit and 1 IPC per extra unit thereafter

At a minium you cost the UK 3 IPC this turn to place 2 units.  As the standard UK purchase is infantry (9 of them), it would go like this:

(Infantry)
Unit 1 cost 5 IPC
Unit 2 cost 4 IPC
Unit 3 cost 4 IPC
Unit 4 cost 4 IPC
Unit 5 cost 4 IPC
Unit 6 cost 4 IPC
Total IPC spent is 25 IPC for 6 units versus 28 IPC for 9 units w/out the SBR.

Of course, you still have Italy that can reach the UK on their first turn as well that will compound the UK’s turn two problem even more as the average is 3.5 on a die roll if the StratB gets through a scramble of 1-2 fighters @1 and the MIC rolling @1.

If the Italian StratB gets through on T1, UK sees another (2 guaranteed plus 3.5 die total) 5 counters put on the MIC, setting it back even more for a G2 SBR.

Now if Germany buys 3 subs on T1 Plus 2 more StratB you can see where this is going to whittle down UK unit placement to basically ZERO by the end of turn 2.  4 StratB’s will flatten the MIC.  8 guaranteed, plus 4 die rolls where the probability is 7 IPC per every 2 die rolled means G2 SBR is looking at 18 hits against the MIC. If Italy gets through on T1, UK MIC is maxed out at 20 counters.  That means it is going to cost 10 IPC to place a single unit and 1 extra IPC following it.  A 13 IPC infantry is VERY appealing for G2 when G2 is going to be spending 70 IPC for a T3 invasion and no help in sight.  Likely G3/G4 is no SBR and full on assault of the UK fleet with Amphib Landing.

Thoughts?

Note: I have not looked at the circumstances surrounding the invasion of France, but I’m guessing it is still possible, but with potential heavier infantry losses?

YG:

I was basing my setups on the graphical templates stickied, not the updated rule set.  That change must have snuck through and clearly changes the entire Mediterranean Contingency for Italy and the UK.

@Young:

In the spirit of blue prints, I wanted to repost my UK1 because it didn’t get much attention in the other thread, due to the controversial US strategy blue print that was in the same post. its an aggressive turn which will depend on the US protecting Calcutta from the south Pacific. Any feed back on this would be great.

United Kingdom #1

Purchase new units (London) = $28

6 infantry
1 fighter

Purchase new units (India) = $17

4 infantry
1 AA gun

Combat movements

Attack SZ#96 with
1 aircraft carrier and tactical bomber from SZ#98 (Egypt)
1 fighter from Gibraltar (aircraft carrier)
1 fighter from Malta (Egypt)
There is nothing in SZ 96 in the Med… Italy has ships in SZ 95 and 97.  What makes this a combat move?Italy has 1 Sub, 1 Dest, 1 Cr, 1 Trn in SZ 95 and 1 Cr, 1 Battleship, 1 Trn in SZ 97.  Attacking either with that force are guaranteed losses for the UK.  Are you planning on not attacking the Italian fleets on UK1 while they are still split?

You really can’t win SZ 97 by sending in everything available, odds are bad for UK1.
You CAN win SZ95 by sending in the cruiser from SZ 91, the fighter from Gibraltar (to land on AC) and everything else in the Med.  However, if Germany lands a fighter in S.Italy the odds drop to 50-50 and you have to hope France’s navy finishes off the whatever remains from the inevitable counter attack from Italy from SZ 97 + Strat Bomb in N.Italy.
UK1 attack SZ 95 with
1 TacB from AC in SZ 98
1 Cruise, 1 Dest from SZ 98
1 Cruise from SZ 91
1 Fighter from Malta
1 Fighter (to AC) from Gibraltar
versus
1 Sub
1 Dest
1 Cruise
2 Fighters Scrambled (80% win for UK), possibly 3 (50-50 win) if Germany lands a fighter in S.Italy

You should lose both cruisers, a destroyer and maybe your TacB (Likely not if no scramble happens)

Uk1 NCom
Move AC into SZ95, Land 2 fighters on it
Land TacB on Malta (If survived)

Italy Counter
Attack SZ 95 with
1 Battleship, 1 Cruiser from SZ 97
1 StratB from N.Italy
versus
1 AC, 2 Fighters

60% Chance of Loss.  Even worse if Italy chooses NOT to scramble fighters and sacrifices the fleet in SZ 95 (98% Win).  Even if a Cruiser or two survive the UK1 attack, your odds don’t change much of winning the counter attack from Italy (60% win).  However, the French Fleet is then primed for a Counter-Counter Attack against a likely damaged Battleship assuming the Italians choose to lose their fighters to preserve their 20 IPC battleship to control the Med.

France1 Attack SZ 95 with
1 Cruiser, 1 Dest from SZ 93
versus
1 Battleship (crippled)
1 Fighter (Germany Scramble from S.Italy)

Odds are in favor of Italy because I can’t put a crippled battleship into my odds calculator, but you only need to score 1 hit to basically eliminate the Italian fleet and likely all of its Air Force minus maybe a StratB.  If for some case the Battleship survives that attack, UK2 still has a TacB on Malta to finish it off.  Fortunately there is a destroyer coming in from S.Africa, and a French ship moving in from off of Madagascar that will both be poised for Turn2 moves into the Med. Same may go for the UK Destroyer from SZ 106.  You also preserve your Trn for a UK2 move into Greece that will be protected by at least 1 Destroyer with little or no available units for Italy to remove it.

Non-combat movements

Move cruiser from 91 into 94

Move cruiser and destroyer from 98 into 99

Move transport into 96, pick up AA gun and infantry, move to 81, drop in Egypt.

Wouldn’t it make sense to move that Transport in with the Cruiser and Destroyer (assuming you don’t like the outcome for the Sea Battles) into Greece on UK1 and take the 2 extra IPC for Greece and gain that infantry?  Italy surely will be taking Bulgaria on T1 and be attacking Greece on Turn 2 with 6 Inf, 1 Tank with pretty good odds (91% Win).  By adding 1 Inf on T1 and 1 Inf, 1Art on T2 you will take control of that part of Europe with the potential to take Bulgaria and then Yugo on T3?

Move 1 infantry and 1 mec infantry from Egypt and 1 tank from Alexandria to Anglo Egypt Sudan

Move 1 infantry and 1 artillery from Alexandria to Egypt

Personally I prefer to Non-Com all of Egypt into Alexandria.  Italy can’t beat that force (80% win for defender in Alexandria) with just what it has in Tobruk.  This negates Italy’s push against Egypt for at least a single turn.  You can delay further to Turn 3 by moving everything from Alexandria to Egypt on UK2 and giving up Alexandria with no IPC value.  By Moving France out of Syria and into Egypt (by the end of T2) you can effectively have 7 Inf, 1 Mech, 2 Art, 1 Tank and unless Italy finds a way to re-inforce, you will have a 90% chance of winning a defensive battle in Egypt.  Even better if the TacB survives the battle for the Med because you can land in Egypt too.  Further compounding it is if you fly the fighters in from India for a solid counter attack component that will arrive in Egypt on UK2.  The best option, however, is assuming the TacB survives is to attack Tobruk on T2 (assuming Italy didn’t withdraw and push against Morocco.  You have 91% win factor if Italy does nothing with both Egypt and Alexandria’s forces on a UK2 attack against Tobruk.