Posts made by Spendo02

I’m saying its more valuable to take the European Neutrals (Yugo, Greece, Bulgaria) in the first two turns for Italy because you don’t expose your Trn to the UK navy.  Especially if I2 you are placing an AC in SZ97 and landing 2 Ftrs on it.

I3 is kind of a slack turn for Italy as you are buying Trn to move the remaining units from the Neutral crush into Egypt.

You may be facing a situation where you have no units in N.Africa at that point due to no reinforcements and the UK playing aggressively there.  If you engaged in a staring contest, all the better.  You can still take take Tunisia if you want, Algeria at most.  I wouldn’t suggest Morocco because you would have to divert too many units to defending it from a US landing and potential US Naval Base.

Basically you aren’t even considering N.Africa until at the earliest I5/I6 because Egypt is your goal and not the NO for controlling N.Africa.  You’ll get a NO by taking Egypt anyways (due to S.France and Greece under Axis Control).  Really, you  just waste resources and fall into a trap if you try to take N.Africa as it spreads you too thin because you can’t advance and defend your flank without giving up control of Yugo and Greece.

Let the UK take your sole territory worth any IPC in Libya.  You’re more than making up for it with other territories that are harder for the UK to reclaim.  You get the added bonus of not having to take and defend Morocco if you decide to disable the Naval Base in Gibraltar which will be Public Enemy #1 for the US if you disabled Gibraltar.

In a nutshell, you don’t even worry about N.Africa because once Egypt falls, you have Iraq to take which is a NO for the Axis, and you have the remainder of Africa to race across with IPC producing territories that are much easier to defend and take than wasting the resources taking and holding until much later in the game.  Besides, with Egypt in Italy’s hands, you enable Germany to ignore Moscow’s 10 billion infantry chipped up and just push right after Leningrad and Stalingrad for the VC win before the US really threatens much more than London.

Sealion on G3
SBR the Naval Base on I3, disabling it for allied use until they liberate London.

Problem solved for US being able to put in a rotation of Trn moving units across the Atlantic.  They can get there quickly, but take forever getting back to fill up with more units.  US isn’t going to have enough units to take and hold anywhere in Europe on its first landing. Factor in some blocking and you can delay the arrival of US units by at least a turn, possibly 2 giving German Controlled London time to mass up some Inf.

This is why Italy needs to ignore N.Africa.  Once you allow the US to get an IC anywhere in Europe, the tides change for the Axis.

You don’t play turtle with Italy, you just choose to ignore the N.Africa NO and rely on taking the Neutrals and maintaining control of the Med.  Effectively is the same thing, but limits US fleet movements towards the Med and funnels them North towards Canada and where your strength is as the Axis (Blockers, Air Force, Subs).

In effect, it allows Italy to take Egypt and allows Germany to not focus on Moscow but take Leningrad and Stalingrad for a VC win without ever stepping foot into Moscow.

Keys for Italy include:

Take Yugo on I1 (German pop it but withdraw after taking out 2-3 units) - this allows Italy to take it on I1 and purchase a carrier on I2
Take Bulgaria on I1 - same as above
Take S.France on I1 - same as above
Axis remove all UK Trn on the first round
Take Greece on I2
Disable the seaport in Gibraltar on I3/I4 to hinder US advances in the Atlantic.  Its actually better to hit it I3 after a successful German Sealion.  The UK loses all its resources to repair it, and the seaport cannot be used by the US until it liberates London.

The ability to ignore the NO for controlling N.Africa (its a trap).  N.Africa control is a late game NO.  Taking S.Africa’s IC is really the only sustainable goal Italy should consider with its units in Ethiopia and Somaliland in regards to Africa.  Anything else is gravy until after the US enters the war.

Taking Greece, Yugo, S.France, Bulgaria is the equivalent of taking N.Africa to get it’s NO and you don’t have to buy a single Trn to do it.  This allows you to buy a Ftr on I1, a Carrier on I2 and taking out the port in Gibraltar on I3, which crimps the US’s style to retake London after a successful Sealion.

I prefer G1 using its subs to take out the UK cruiser in SZ91 to take some heat off the Med from the UK.  A Battleship, Cruiser from SZ110 + the Cruiser in SZ91 is a bit overwhelming when combined with the Destroyer moving up SZ71, combining with the fleet that starts in SZ98.

You can’t do anything about the UK ships coming into the Med from SZ110, thats what the carrier and fighters are for.  It won’t reach the protection of the fleet hiding behind the Suez Canal, so you should be able to pop it with enough to sink it neatly with losing maybe a single ship.

I can’t say this enough:  If the UK leaves its Trn exposed in the Med - crush it at all costs.

I tried the Sub purchase on G1 once, it worked.  However from experience, unless you molest all their destroyers, they can just use their remaining navy and the fighters on the UK to kill off your subs.  It buys you time, but not a whole lot as the threat of Sealion is gone and the UK will go on the offensive.  Sealion purchase on G1, G2 gives you two things:

Two defensive purchases by UK on UK1 and UK2 meaning it will take the UK multiple rounds before massing a force big enough to harass Holland and Normandy.
Flexibility on G3 to either go ahead with a Sealion on the UK or feign and send all those troops into Leningrad.

I generally try to play defensive on the southern front of Germany (Ukraine area) while moving my stacks of infantry and tanks north towards Leningrad.  By taking Baltic and Poland on G3, you can mass them all up on G4 with your surviving units from Leningrad in Belarus which puts you on Moscow’s doorstep by G5 and G6 going after Moscow.

If for some reason the Russian mass the Eastern Front at Baltic, you can also land your units there if your odds don’t look good (but I think they should) or you can split them to take out a weakened Leningrad.

Basically going Sealion G1/G2 gives you the duel threat and forces at a minimum a defensive purchase for multiple rounds for the UK without having to “waste” resources (Trn instead of Subs) to do it.  You can also SBR the UK on G2 and G3 to further hinder its resources to change gears to attack mode.

Unless I am mistaken, you cannot place IC’s except on territories you start with?

I1 I buy a Sub, save 4 IPC
I1 I take S.France, Bulgaria, Tunisia, Kenya
Collect 16 IPC (21 if UK withdraws past the Suez Canal and doesn’t move its cruiser to SZ93 to defend with the French fleet)

I2 I buy a Carrier, save 4 IPC
I2 I take Algeria, Greece, Belgian Congo
I2 I lose Libya, Ethiopia
Collect 18 IPC (Possibly have Med NO at this point, so could be 23)

I3 I buy 2 TacB’s
I3 I take Yugo, French Eq. Africa, Morocco
I3 I lose Belgian Congo, Kenya, Tunisia
Collect 19 IPC (Same story, Med NO is subjective, so I don’t count on it)

I4 I buy 3 Tanks
I3 I turn my units around in Morocco and land whatever surviving units from Yugo in Algeria to take it back from the UK (assuming they took it prior to my turn).  I can bring 2 Ftrs, 2 TacB from the Air, possibly the StratB if it survived chasing the fleets out of the Med.  Assuming none of the tanks were lost on Europe (3 to start, I can load 2 of them with 1 Inf each on my 2 Trn and dump them there as well).  Theres at least a tank in N.Africa that may have survived, so I can bring up to 3 tanks into Algeria, probably 3-4 total Inf.  That should be enough to crush whatever units the UK pushed from Egypt/Alexandria across N.Africa.  It also stages 3 tanks to blitz across to Libya on I5 and meet up with 2 more tanks being dropped off from my I4 purchase.

Basically I play cat and mouse in Africa until I solidify my territories in Europe and THEN turn on Africa.  The UK only really counters this by sending units into Morocco from the UK (which I expect it is prepping for sealion and not doing so) or by committing more sea units to stopping Italy from obtaining the NO in the Med.  UK can also send units from India to Africa (to include fighters), but in doing so exposes itself to Japan taking India on Turn3.

Heavy Tank (HT):
Cost 8 IPC
Attack 3(4) (If combined with a Light Tank)
Defend 4
Move 2

Light Tank (LT):
Cost 6 IPC
Attack 3(4) (If combined with TacB or Heavy Tank)
Defend 3
Move 2

Trinity:
If HT and LT are present, each paired infantry attack at +1

Paratrooper:
Cost 6 IPC
Attack 1(3) (First round, no retaliation)
Defend 2
Move 1(3) (3 at launch, must be from Air Base)
Subject to AA fire in Combat Phase (if AA present)
Must be paired with a StratB, each carries 3 Paratroopers.

Just make it a NO for the US that it needs a cumulative die roll to obtain nukes

Certain things have to happen in order for the US to roll “Atomic Dice”

Allied control of Rome
No Axis controlled territories in Africa
The Axis cannot control US originally controlled territories in the Pacific (Guam, Midway, Hawaii, Johnston, Line, Philippines, Aleutian)
The Axis cannot control UK originally controlled territories in Europe (London, Scotland, Iceland, Gibraltar)
Anzac has to have collected IPC that round

Before Germany goes in that round, the US gets to roll a die for each of the following:
US Control of Rome
US Control of Hawaii
US Control of Caroline Islands
US Control of Marianas
US Control of Iwo Jima
US Control of Okinawa
US Control of Marshall Islands
France collected IPC that round
Allied Control of Egypt

You have to roll something like six sixes in order to obtain an atomic bomb.  Thats six sixes cumulatively.  Alternately, you can make it a cumulative total so something like you have to roll something like a die total of 40-50 cumulatively on the die roll(s) over multiple rounds.

Each nuke thereafter costs the US 1/3 of its IPC to purchase it (so probably something like 25-30 IPC at this point in the game).

The Nuke works just like a SBR however it can only be on the Nation’s Capital (Tokyo / Berlin).  If the StratB’s with the Nuke(s) get to the roll dice phase for damage to the Major IC, then the attack is successful.

A successful attack means that nation does not collect IPC that round.

From the German perspective:

Germany rolls a single die every round for the following objectives:

German Control for each VC it controls

So G1 would see Germany likely roll die for Berlin, Warsaw and Paris.

Germany would also be able to roll die if it controls London, Egypt, Leningrad, Stalingrad, and/or Moscow which allows for Germany to go in any direction to obtain extra die rolls.

Germany scores half (rounded down) its total die roll if the Axis does not control Paris and Rome.

Germany has to obtain the same objective as the US to obtain an Atomic Bomb (six sixes or something like 50 total showing on the dice cumulatively through all rolls).

I believe this puts the Atomic Bomb in play for Germany around turn 7-8 if it never loses Paris and owns London.  However Germany could only really play that Atomic bomb against Moscow if it sealioned G3 as its pretty darned difficult for it to launch a SBR against the US.  In effect it penalizes Moscow for sitting back and really doing nothing instead of pushing back against the Germans.

As you already own China’s VC, I don’t think China is as important although the early plays preserve how long you have before China comes back to try to take it.  They are “easy” territories to take, which makes them appealing.  However, just taking Borneo alone is worth the same IPC as all 4 “plays” in China on Japan1 and its basically free and much harder to reclaim.

If you push as far in as you can on J2 and withdraw backwards playing “turtle” to Shanghai, you can buy yourself to at least J5/J6 before China is knocking on its door.  Japan can win in VC’s by that time, or be very close to it with a Sydney sack on J3/J4 instead of committing the northern mainland units to China).

Plenty of better uses for those fighters scattered around the mainland, and more VC’s (Manilla, Calcutta, Sydney, Hawaii and Defending Tokyo)

SBR Leningrad if defended
SBR Moscow soon as you can

However, kill UK first is probably the best course to an Allied defeat.

@Cmdr:

@Young:

@Stalingradski:

Right on, Clyde. Creating and maintaining the initiative in A&A ranks as #1 above and beyond any and all specific strategies/units purchased, etc.

Agreed, however, a slight pause at some point, may be required to prevent spreading one self to thin.

Just remember, there are many times when something looks sub-optimal but really work out well for you!

Case in point:  21 Japanese aircraft attack 8 british infantry and 2 british AA Guns.  This looks HORRIBLE, but it’s not really that bad, if it means you get India for next to nothing and especially if India is your last VC needed to win.

#1 Create and maintain your own initiatives (Reactionary moves are less effective, take note Japan and Germany players)
#2 Never lose sight of the big picture (Taking a VC/Capital regardless of the losses)
#3 Risky positioning can be covered by other nation’s moves later in the round (Italy flying cover for German infantry)

Perhaps the biggest value Italy can provide (outside of taking advantage of Allied misplays to get NO’s) is to land its fighters over smaller German contingents.  Russia may want to counter attack a move that left Germany with 5 inf and 2 tanks, but it sure won’t do it with 2-3 italian fighters over it.  You can use this to your advantage to hold lines you didn’t think you’d be able to.  In effect, it allows you to make bold moves.

I have a mac, is there any way to play an online game here using the maps that I see you guys post?

I counted the spaces from the AC’s staged in the Carolines to Sydney and I think its 5 spaces.  4 gets you to Sydney, but there is no where to land.  You’d have to stage the AC’s in at least SZ46 off New Guinea on J2.

I almost always see Anzac1 take DNG for the NO because the 10 IPC’s a round from NO’s is much more valuable than the Trn you may lose.  Anzac1 ending the turn with 20 IPC’s provides for an Anzac2 of a BB or AC for those fighters you may or may not want to rusty away on the capital.

If you declare war on the US on round 1 you lose the 10 IPC NO for Japan for the sake of 2 IPC from the Philippines and expose yourself to the Hawaii fleets nipping at the J2 move of heavily laden trans to Carolines.  Better to take the 20 IPCs for J1 and J2, declare war J3 (net 16 IPC) and not have to worry about the US taking shots at your fleet in the Carolines early.  Also keeps the US industry at a minimum.

Even if you do a J3 sea battle off Sydney and a J4 invasion, you still have J2, J3, J4 to purchase units off Japan to deal with a US counter (which you can use destroyers as a blocker to extend it to J4 before US hits Japan at the earliest).  Realistically if US3 makes its purchases, it cannot even stage those purchases on Hawaii until J4.  If Japan is sitting pretty with 34ish IPC’s on those three rounds you can field at least another carrier and 2 BB in Japan or fly in some fighters from the mainland onto 2 AC and have 3 more to scramble from the AB.

If J4 takes Sydney, J5 puts the main fleet in the Carolines and the US has to choose between the big fleet or Japan.  Both defensive battles and more advantageous for the Japansese navy than the normal attack on Hawaii where your AC don’t get to take hits.  US goes after Japan, you take Hawaii and cut it off from re-supply and 3 space movements.  It takes heavy casualties just trying to take SZ6 and still has to deal with 6 Inf on Japan (not to mention you have up to 6 Kamikaze’s you can target the US AC’s with).  Sunk AC’s = crashed fighters even if the US prevails over 2 AC, a couple destroyers and a BB with 7 fighters flying cover.  Then J6 Japan Carolines mops up whats remaining of the fleet with no AC or fighters in SZ6 with the big fleet and holds Sydney and Hawaii.  Thats if US goes after Japan which imo is a misplay.

US’s could take the Carolines instead of Japan as early as J3, but then you have 5 AC (3 from Sydney, 2 from Japan) with the entire fleet converging on the US fleet.  Its not pretty but the US does get to play defensive Navy which is an advantage.

I looked into it, you can get Sydney by just purchasing 3 Trn on J1.  However unless Anzac plays terribly newbish I can’t see Sydney falling to Japan on J3.  More likely J4.

What exactly is your invasion force on Sydney.  Assuming 3 Trn 1 Art on J1 you have access to 4 Art, 1 Tank and lots of inf to load up on 6 total Trn.  Do you snag some Art from the mainland on J1 moving the Trn to SZ6 to stage at Caroline on J2? to even it out at 6 inf, 6 art?  That force doesn’t take out possibly 7 Inf, 1 Art and 3 Ftr in a “good” scenario for Japan where Anzac didn’t think defensively until Anzac2 with a big fleet staged on Carolines.

Correct me if I am wrong, but it is pretty much setup so that the only way Japan can unleash its fury on the UK/Anzac and not instigate USA early is for the UK/Anzac to attack Japan or move a unit into or over a Chinese territory.

Be curious to see how the SBR works.  Is this the full denial approach?  I think by G2/G3 you can have the London Major locked at 20 chips meaning it costs 11 IPC + unit cost to place a single unit on London.  Net net I think its somewhere around 3 or 4 less infantry for a potential Sealion by G3/G4?

J1 Buy 3 Trn, 1 Art
Move SZ6 fleet to Carolines (Leave the Trn)
Standard China moves
Recall SZ20 to SZ6
Recall SZ16 to SZ6
Spread Destroyers (3 of them) to SZ’s as blockers (SZ16 at a minimum, maybe SZ’s 18 and 19 as well and use Kamakazee’s to try to take out any ships that move in to remove ships)
Transfer StratB’s to Carolines
Transfer Artillery, 3 Inf from Manchuria to Korea

J2 Buy: 2 Trn, AC, Destroyer
J2 Standard China moves
J2 move full fleet from SZ6 to Carolines - Trns bring 12 total units: 7 inf, 4 art, 1 Tank

J3 Declare war on Anzac
J3 Invade SZ62 with full complement of Caroline Fleet

Basically it looks like this for J3 SZ62:
3 Fighter, 3 TacB
2 Subs
2 Cruisers
2 BB

Even with an Anzac scramble of 3 fighters and an Anzac2 purchase of a BB its 100% odds Japan cleans the house and thats basically worst case scenario for Japan.

If Anzac goes A1 and A2 infantry thats 6 more than what it already has bringing it up to 10 Inf, 1 Art on the capital could be 1 more if Anzac clears out NZ.  I’ve watched Anzac wait until Anzac2 to buy a BB or AC, this is advantageous because it shorts itself 3 Inf to defend an invasion.  So you can see anywhere from 7 Inf, 8 Inf, 10 Inf or 11 Inf + 1 Art.  It will also have 3 fighters that it either chooses to suicide against the invasion fleet (misplay) or hold for the J4 invasion.  Regardless how Anzac plays it, Japan wins Sydney on J4.  J3 is only realistic if Anzac bought that BB on Anzac2 and chooses to suicide its fighters in the sea battle or flew them over to Malaya to help with the push from Japan against Calcutta.  Its particularly nice if the A2 purchase was an AC and they land 2 fighters on it.

I can’t see how J3 gets Sydney without an extreme novice player, but J4 is realistic and VERY possible.  Just don’t land the Amphibious on J3 with more than a single fighter flying cover over Anzac.

Basically if you Kill Anzac First, you can have it just by purchasing 3 transports on J1.  Everything else was on the board to start.  That leaves J2, J3 purchases to deal with an inevitable move by the US/UK against Japan and Japan already has blockers in play.  The advantage is Japan gets whatever Anzac2 collected, plus 5 for a NO and 2 for taking the territory.  All said, for little investment (really just 3 trn) Japan can net itself 8 IPCs from territories, 5 IPC’s from a NO and whatever Anzac had by J3/J4.  A constant 12 IPC and staging to take the DEI on J4/J5 is really interesting.

I think the biggest draw to this is that the US has to now defend Hawaii while preparing a liberation force for Anzac.  The US splitting itself 3 ways now (Atlantic, Hawaii, South Pacific) is advantageous for Japan considering its loss of the fleet is insignificant in comparison to trying to take Hawaii or get mudded up chasing Calcutta.

Basically it comes down to one of two options:

Eliminate one of the powers in the Pacific
-or-
“Ignore” your map and assist Germany against Moscow

Thoughts on those two statements:

Anzac is the least valuable of the powers to eliminate.  It is also the furthest away and exposes your capital the most to the other powers.

You can’t eliminate the US without removing Washington.  Its pretty unrealistic and by the 4th turn the US economy will push you right out of the US if you manage a foothold if you haven’t gotten them into the war earlier.

China can be “eliminated” but can also be “ignored”.  This is an important consideration because China can never threaten your capital.

UK Pacific is the real Gem of the Pacific for Japan.  It gives Japan nearly exclusive control of the DEI, the NO bonus from it plus controlling all of the UK’s provinces that really won’t be lost to Anzac or the US until VERY LATE.  Its a solid 30+ IPC that Japan can maintain for a long time.  Conversely, its also a difficult objective to take and is very obviously seen by the opposing player from the get-go.

The last choice is to ignore most of the Pacific Map and drive straight for Moscow to assist a German push.  However, this play is a multiple turn play, and isn’t an early Japan play although it is required to be started early.  I’m guessing Japan’s forces won’t threaten Moscow in force until turn 7ish.  Thats a solid 3 plays by the US with full industry running.  Can a Japanese fleet withstand potentially 2 assaults on Tokyo from the US and probably at least 1 each from UK Pacific and Anzac?  Good question.

My biggest complaint still lies in the lack of utility of major islands that were significant in history (Midway, Wake, Guam, Iwo Jima for example).  There are NO’s for controlling all of them for Japan, but the realistic chance of obtaining that NO is far from relevant.  Further, the US can basically ignore most of the islands because Tokyo is a single turn move from Hawaii leaving the only real purpose of the spaces in the pacific as blocking spaces that only delays the US by a turn or two at best and requires the sacrifice of ships to manage it at all.  The advantages of holding the islands at all is minimal outside of SBR runs from Guam and the Philippines for UK/Anzac to threaten Tokyo.  The Caroline Islands just buy Japan time by holding it and honestly it feels like it lures Japan into a non-aggressive position of indecision.

It all comes down to what US purchases on its first three turns.  Unfortunately, the US3 purchase is unknown to Germany and Germany has to decide on its third turn to Sealion London or stage off Gibraltar for a KAF.

US places all units in the Pacific on US1 and US2, the door is open for KAF.  US3 will only be able to field at best an AC with 2 fighters, 1 Cruiser and a scrambling Ftr in response to a staging off Gibraltar and will lose to an Italy3 and Germany4 strike on SZ101 and Eastern US.  US can misplay this further by not flying fighters from the Pacific to Eastern US on US3 and make it easier to pull off.

If US Places an AC on US1, a Ftr on US2, and either 2 BB + 1 Ftr or an AC + 2 Ftr on US3 in SZ101, your in for a fight but its still winnable with 6 or so Trn with Inf/Art pairs.  I’d say 75-25 in favor of the Axis.

If US Places an AC on US1, a Ftr on US2, places 3 inf on Eastern US on US3 and flies 2 fighters from the Pacific into Eastern US on US3 you are going to need 9-10 pairs of Inf/Art landing to take Eastern US and its around 60-40 in favor of the Axis.

US can play blocker with its cruiser, but the Italian fleet can clear that out for the G4 landing.  However the German fleet is going to have to beef up a bit to handle multiple fighters and capital ships which = less transports.

Biggest issue is that G3 has no idea what US3 is going to see and do and it gives up a Sealion on London to try to pull it off.  Relying on misplays is dangerous when looking at seasoned players, and its highly unlikely you’d pull it off more than once against the same opponent(s).

@Jeff28:

How is your IPC income during this strategy Spendo?

Do you have another partial fleet running round the money islands?

Are you building factories on the mainland?

Note this is NOT a J1 attack, but a J4 attack

J1 (26 IPC starting)
Buy Naval Base (15) - Placed on Hainan and not Formosa (like I think I said earlier)
Buy 1 Artillery (4)
Buy 1 Trn (7)
IPC Remaining (0)

Load Trn in SZ19 with 1 Inf, 1 Art from Manchuria. Drop off at Kwangsi
Load Trn in SZ6 with 1 Inf, 1 Art from Japan.  Drop off at Kwangsi
Move Trn in SZ20 to SZ6
Move entire fleet into SZ36
Move Manchuria Units into Jehol (5 Inf, 1 Mech)
Move 4 Inf from Korea into Manchuria
Leave Caroline Islands Fleet alone

Take Chahar (1) Anhwe (1) Hunan (1) Yunnan (1) = +4 IPC
Stay Neutral = +10 IPC
J1 Collect (26 + 10 + 4) + IPC Remaining (0) = 40 IPC

J2 (40 IPC to Spend)
Buy 3 Inf (9)
Buy 2 Art (8)
Buy 2 Trn (14)
IPC Remaining (9)

Load 1 Trn in SZ6 with 1 Inf, 1 Tank from Japan.  Drop off at Kwangsi
Load 1 Trn in SZ6 with 1 Inf, 1 Art from Japan.  Drop off at Kwangsi
Move 1 Trn from SZ36 to SZ6.  Pick up the Inf in Okinawa
Move 1 Trn from SZ36 to SZ19.  Pick up 2 Inf from Manchuria
Move 5 Inf from Jehol to Anhwe
Move 2 Inf from Manchuria into Jehol
(Moved the Mech Inf from Jehol to Suiyuyan’s attack)
Keep both fleets in position

If I did my math right, after unit placement Japan is holding 3 purchased Inf, 3 purchased Art.  Its +1 from the pickup at Okinawa and has moved 3 of its original Inf to have 3 of its original remaining.  Thats a total of 4 Inf + 3 Purchased + 3 Art.  It has 2 Trn just purchased and placed, plus 1 that moved in from SZ36 for a total of 3 Trn in SZ6 ending J2.

Take Suiyuyan (1) Hopei (1) Kweichow (1) = +3 IPC
Retake Yunnan (0) Because already counted from J1
Neutral NO = +10 IPC
IPC not lost from J1 = +4 IPC
J2 Collect (26 + 10 + 4 + 3) IPC + Remaining IPC (9) = 52 IPC

J3 (52 IPC to Spend)
Buy 1 AC (16)
Buy 1 TacB (11)
Buy 1 Ftr (10)
Buy 2 Subs (12)
Buy 1 Inf
Remaining IPC (0)

Move 1 Trn from SZ19 to SZ20.  Drop off 2 Inf at Kiangsi
Move 1 Trn from SZ36 to SZ6
Move 1 Trn from SZ6 to SZ19, pick up 2 Inf.  Drop off at Kiangsi
Move 5 Inf from Anhwe to Kweichow
Move 1 Inf from Shensi to Tsinghai
Move entire Fleet in SZ36 to SZ33
Fly 2 StratB from Mainland to Caroline Islands

Take Kansu (1) Shensi (1) = +2 IPC (need one more turn for units to get down from Manchuria/Korea into Kweichow to take Szechwan and China’s Fighter.
Retake Yunnan (0) But may not have to depending on how China fares on its J2 attack
Neutral NO = +10 PIC
IPC not lost from J1 = +4 IPC
IPC not lost from J2 = +3 IPC
J3 Collect (26 + 10 + 4 + 3 + 2) + Remaining IPC (1) = 46 IPC

J4 (46 IPC to spend)
Buy 4 Destroyers (32)
Buy 2 Inf (6)
Buy 2 Art (8)
Remaining IPC (0)

Take FIC (2) Kwangtung (3) Sikang (1) Szechwan (1) = +7 IPC
IPC not lost from J1-J3 = +9 IPC
NO: Hold Honolulu = +5 IPC
J4 Collect (26 + 9 + 7 + 5) + Remaining IPC (0) = 47 IPC

Move 2 Trn from SZ20 to SZ6
Move all remaining units towards Yuunan.  The English are coming!

Send the entire kitchen sink from Caroline / Japan against Hawaii.

Just for clarity, Japan brings against Hawaii:
4 Subs
4 Destroyers
2 Cruisers
2 Battleships
4 Fighters
4 TacB’s
2 StratB’s

USA fields:
1 Sub
2 Destroyers
2 Cruisers
1(3) Battleship
1(3) AC
1(2) Fighter (AC)
1 TacB (AC)
2(3) Fighters (Scramble from Hawaii)

Add in 2 Battleships (U1/U2), 2 AC(U1/U2), 1 Fighter from W.USA, 1 Fighter flown in from the Philippines.  USA2 could also opt to purchase a fighter instead of a second AC (likely) with their remaining 16 IPC.  Placement of that Fighter is essential as is the decision where that fighter in Eastern US ends up.  Both those fighters show up in Hawaii, you’re in for a fight to the death in Hawaii.

USA3 Purchases will never make it to Hawaii in time, but can counter so take note of that.  If USA has more than 6 fighters on/around Hawaii, this attack is a 50-50 shot.  With 6 or less, your looking at 85% odds of winning.  USA starts with 3 fighters already there.  Western US is the 4th, the Philippines is the 5th, USA2 Purchase is the 6th.  However, if Italy/Germany stage at SZ91 and put the threat on Eastern US at the end of G3 - USA cannot ignore it and you’ll ensure fighters/ships are finding their way headed to Eastern USA and not the Pacific on a USA3 purchase / non-combat moves.

Amphibious Assault constitutes 4 Trn loaded with 5 Inf and 3 Art from SZ6.  Unless the US is buying transports and/or moving units from Eastern US into Western to ferry across the most ground units on Hawaii are 4 Inf, 1 Mech, 1 Art.  You have a 83% chance of winning this battle, losing probably 4 Inf.

Drawbacks:

You leave yourself bare in the pacific for Anzac to have fun with your islands.  
You never touched India-UK’s fleet.
You WILL lose ships in the Hawaii attack.  Chances are you walk away with 2 damaged Battleships, maybe 2 fighters and you moved in 4 AC.  I had one very good roll where I survived with 3 fighters and 1 TacB plus the aforementioned ships but I absolutely killed USA on the second round of rolls.

You have 4 Destroyers, 2 Trn in SZ6 off Japan ending J4.  Just enough to go straight after the Philippines if you so choose.  Those 4 Destroyers can also move their way straight to Hawaii to protect against a US sub purchase after J4 to protect whatever ships survived the Hawaii assault.  They also bring with them 2 Inf, 2 Art on Transports to reinforce Hawaii (or stage for a move into Western US on J6).

All the money islands are free for the Allies to take.
You’re going to lose a TON of IPC value off the board by trying to take Burma with a limited ground force and no reinforcements in sight.
The British ARE coming.

Projecting beyond this point is hazardous for my health, so I will just leave suggestions:

I think the best strategy at this point is retreating to Caroline.  Leave any surviving fighters/infantry you have there to force the US to fully commit to taking Hawaii back.  Move all Trn to Japan.  It gives you the ability to project against Anzac, or to take out whatever India-UK tries to move up the coast.  You’ll be in range of purchased fighters from Japan this way as well so you can quickly land 2 fighters, 2 TacB on your AC in any zone that the Allies go after (SZ36, SZ33, or back into Hawaii at SZ26).  With 4 Destroyers, 2 TP loaded with 2 Inf, 2 Art, and 2 repaired Battleships you’ll be able to roll 6 die for 4’s against any of the tiny fleets that are kicking up dirt in the Pacific as well as to start taking the IPC islands.  Just realize that China is a lost cause and you are just playing turtle between Burma and Yunnan.  I’d probably project myself against the Philippines as soon as possible to deny the US another 5 IPC and then start ferrying more units down into south east Asia from Japan.  Something along the lines of 2 inf, 2 Art (14), 1 Fighter/1 TacB (21) for the next few turns.