Posts made by simon33

@Herr:

@simon33:

I found the thread but it didn’t include a human readable description of what happened on R1.

I don’t get the comment about the 50-50 battle for West Russia? If everything is poured in, you have 12 inf 3 art 4 arm. Germany can’t dream of countering that.

Actually, Germany can. Russia usually loses two infantry in the W. Russia attack, so it only has 10 inf, 3 art, and 4 arm in defense. On G1, Germany can counterattack with 6 inf, 1 art, 4 arm, 6 fight, and 1 bomb. Germany has roughly an 80% chance of winning if they go all out and a 45% chance of winning if they attack until only air units are left.

I guess but one AAA drops the odds to 62% for Germany. The second one doesn’t fit with the calculator but probably the suggestion of 50-50 is about right.

This is a bit academic though if you accept the wisdom of my attack on Belorussia.

I reckon yes.

Repairs take effect immediately,
and the controlling player can use repaired facilities during the rest
of this turn.

I found the thread but it didn’t include a human readable description of what happened on R1.

I don’t get the comment about the 50-50 battle for West Russia? If everything is poured in, you have 12 inf 3 art 4 arm. Germany can’t dream of countering that.

@Young:

So if a damaged British battleship is left in 111, what are UK player’s options to save it, and what are the German player’s options for killing it on G2?

What about moving to SZ 109 where it can be defended by both airbases? SZ 118 is also an option for retreating to where it can only be reached by Strat Bombers and remaining German fleet.

Much prefer sending the German BB to the northern SZ, SZ 111. That way if you retreat with the UK BB alive it doesn’t get repaired UK1. At least it requires a bit of an effort from the UK to protect it.

@nateous:

I always try to get 7inf and two tanks and ftr on karelia and Caucasus r1.

But Germany can get in 7 inf 3 arm, planes and more including an amphibious assault to Karelia.

@nateous:

U.K.first move is usually to take Borneo and New guinea on uk1. Having bought three tanks and a bomber saving one ipc. I buy three tanks every round until Japan wins our gives up. A bomber a turn from U.K.and U.S.each turn will quickly turn Germany’s income into 20 less! Giving Russia time to hold on and press back even on both fronts!

Do you mean here to support the assault with a fighter off the carrier? Otherwise it has a 30% or so chance of failure. It means foregoing attacking the SZ37 fleet.

@nateous:

Whether or not the straights are open does change your opening move for Russia.

I don’t understand why?

@nateous:

Do you usually allow the straights to be open?  Is that just because of the Harris tournament rule?

Yes on allowing the straights to be open. For no particular reason really.

If you close the straights you don’t need to worry so much about too strong a counter attack into Caucasus. Those 3 tanks are great for retaking Karelia, enough that Germany will probably hold in Finland and just blitz into it on G1.

Normandy can certainly be a better landing site, but it depends on there not being an adequate stack in Paris to counter attack. You get an already built IC then.

Taking down the soft underbelly in Italy can also be attractive.

Technically, with a J1 DOW, you can reach US2, but you won’t have a fleet to defend the sole transport. US5 is the turn you can always reach.

Isn’t this in the wrong forum.

@Black_Elk:

Baltic Gambit: and the 30 IPC Russian Opening!

I’ve got a different suggestion.
Belarus + Ukraine Gambit: and the 28-30 IPC Russian Opening!

2inf 1 art 1 ftr attack Belarus (82%)
3inf 1 art 3 arm 1 ftr attack Ukraine (86%)
7inf 1 art 1 arm (rest) attack WRussia. (95%)

Buy 4 inf 3 art.

Doesn’t matter greatly if you take the Belarus territory so long as you weaken the stack. But it matters greatly if you take Ukraine.
Possibility 1: strafe Ukraine leaving only the fighter- presumably 3 arm plus 4 mobilising units plus 1 AAA and 2 ftrs end up in Caucasus. Some danger of a counter in Ukr. Max counter attack then G1 is 1 inf 1 art 2 arm 4 ftr 1 bom 1 bat. 7% to the Germans.

Possibility 2: take Ukraine. No real possibility of holding it and a counter attack on Caucasus G1 is still possible by amphibious assault. Germany will have 1 inf 1 art 2 arm 2 ftr 1 bom 1 bat vs Russia with 4 inf/art 1 AAA 2 ftr. The germans cannot bring the Italy fighter into the assault due to the lack of a landing field in Ukraine. This attack is 19% to the Germans with 6% wipeout.

Possibility 3: strafe Ukraine leaving the fighter and 1 arm 1 art - presumably 3 arm plus 4 mobilising units plus 1 AAA and 2 ftrs end up in Caucasus. Let’s say you also keep an art. Max counter attack then G1 is 1 inf 2 art 3 arm 4 ftr 1 bom 1 bat. 60% to the Germans.

The above can be shifted towards the USSR by moving the second AAA to Caucasus.

So presumably Caucasus can be held G1 unless you get very unlucky. Just need to make sure to take out all the inf and art in Ukraine.

@ShadowHAwk:

And it is nice place for an IC. As it takes away an NO from germany and germany cant counter it so that is +3 for the Us -8 for germany a good move.

Those are reasons I see value in defending it.

Yes, it can be worth it to move the forces to Leningrad if it means you can take it down but you don’t want to surrender Norway and not take Leningrad. If you only have a single transport as Germany, it can be difficult to take it back but at least you can interdict forces in Finland and use survivors (if any) to threaten an assault on Norway. I guess it is whether that is a better use than landing reinforcements on Leningrad. Or perhaps you are using the transport to land troops on the UK.

I was wondering why this was such a standard move - doesn’t the German player move in forces to oppose it? I always land 1 inf 1 art in Norway G1, normally G2 as well. That’s 8-9 inf and 1-2 art. Even if the US1 buy is 3 transports 3 inf 3 art, they still don’t have enough to land on Norway against that force US3. Can’t the German player also fly a lot of planes in to repel the invasion? Is the normal strategy a combined USSR then USA attack US3?

@Young:

Can a sub be ignored during an amphibious assault and still get shore bombardment from the same territory? if so, what would be the circustances required?

Yes. No special circumstances.

But you can’t ignore a sub with an unescorted (no warship) landing. Not 100% sure if a sub escort counts.

I think going Atlantic with the US underestimates the strength of this J1 move. I wouldn’t mind a game, but I’m in Sydney, AU.

I guess one option is to strengthen both Queensland and Hawaii. Neither could stand against the full weight of the maximum Caroline force, but the survivors of the battle would need to fight off the other force. Let’s look at that:
Hawaii (SZ26): 2DD, AC, 2 Cruiser, BB, Sub, 3Ftr Scramble, 2Ftr on AC. Attacking this force, Japan needs to sacrifice at least two hits to its carriers which will leave the US with two units on average. (I don’t play low luck.) If IJN sacrifices three hits on its carriers it has an average of 1-2 units left. Sacrificing more can’t be simulated in the calculator.

If two more inf and a tac bomber are landed on Hawaii, the Japanese can take this down 64% of the time with 3 inf and 3 art. You might land the strat bomber on Johnson Island or the Line Islands to help clean up the left overs which would allow it to threaten SZ54 as well. Oh actually it can do so from Western USA.

But suffice to say, this appears to be a pretty strong option and forces a retreat from the Carolines or requires its reinforcement from a sensible Japanese player.

@SubmersedElk:

One thing about this play is that the J1 moves are quite modest so it gives the US the signal it’s free to go Atlantic. But it’s quite solid even if the US goes west instead.

So the general idea is to lure the US into ignoring Japan? Hmm, can’t knock it because it seems to have worked in the example game you show. What if the US bulks up Hawaii on land and positions their fleet for a counter strike as I’m suggesting? Your transports are out of position for a landing on Australia. You can probably only land on one of the money islands because a counter attack is more or less assured. Can’t reach India on J2. I’m guessing you just stick to the script in that scenario around DEI. What does the Caroline force do? I’m guessing stay put and wait for the transports to come from SZ6.

@ShadowHAwk:

It does not mather if you can or cannot defend against it. It mathers that japan has to commit a lot to kill it and might be in a position where the US can finish off a large part of its fleet.

It is only 10 VS 12 dice and only 11 vs 12 hitpoints you cannot count the carriers unless you really want to throw away that fleet against a US counter. And you dont have a naval base so your ships will still be damaged the next round :)

I’d wondered about that but the damaged fleet can limp back towards Philippines and be out of reach of the US fleet.

@teslas:

@aequitas:

What are you going to about russia invades Finnland instead of retreating to moscow with the whole stack?

You have 7 scandinavian infantry as Germany. Let the Russians take Finland for one round, then hit them with those 7 dudes + 2 more whatevers from a transport and your air. Some people even take their Danes up early as well, meaning 11 land units for a Finland counter. The Russians can’t do anything about that unless they want to leave Moscow as a super easy treat for Germany. Russians in Scandinavia on a straight push like this are a blessing, not a threat. It would take a heavily coordinated effort between Russia on one side and UK/US on the other to make it matter, and at that point the situation is too complex to discuss much in the scope of this post’s original intent.

You also have 11 inf as USSR and 1 art which can move into Karelia R1. If the Germans don’t bring across reinforcements on round one you can take down the force with some air. The real problem is that it leaves a sizeable portion of your inf out of position. I think the time I took down Norway I might have brought in a tank to help or maybe used a transport. Might be better to just nibble at Finland. That way the force can’t threaten Leningrad as much.

Oh, I think I see the problem with that as a strategy. Even with the scramble, SZ54 off Qld is not really defensible.
1 UK BB
2 US DD
1 US Sub
1 US Cruiser
1 ANZAC DD
1 ANZAC Cruiser
3 ANZAC Ftr

Cannot defend against 3 loaded carriers, BB, Cruiser, 3 DD and a Sub. It’s less than 3%.

But you can still hold Hawaii and sink ships trying to surround it on US2.

I wonder if you should stack SZ56 off WA? You’re out of reach of IJN on J3 and only the Hawaiian forces can’t reach it.

Ok, put it into the calculator. If:

• no hits are taken by the Japanese fleet in any attacks
• all the ships which can reach Caroline Islands go there J1
• no assistance in J2 from new units or units starting in SZ19 or SZ20.
• US Hawaii and Philippines fleets move to Western US or Queensland respectively
• no IJN blockers (not much point if they’re only blocking the US DD and Sub from Philippines anyway)
• US Carrier moves to the square adjacent to Hawaii (SZ12) allowing two more land based fighters to enter the combat
• All US ships in the Pac join in
• US loses Hawaii on J2 after evacuating its ships, troops and planes

The odds equalise roughly if the US buys 3 subs in the Western US. Of course, they can only buy 3 units there if not at war US1. But throw in another Strategic Bomber at the Defender drops to 25%. Buy 3 Strat Bombers and only 2 subs and the defender drops to 8%. Of course, that does mean you can’t buy a destroyer for the atlantic on turn one.

Let’s say that maybe they feel like making a stand at Hawaii on the land battle:
They can fly in 2ftr + 1 tac + 1 stratB, in addition to the 2ftr already there. Let’s assume they play it safe and leave the stratB at home. The Hawaiian defenders survive this 88.9%, even without reinforcements from the mainland or with the reinforcements but sending on the Hawaiian troops to Qld - SZ54.

I’m going to take some convincing this strategy of yours is impregnable.

Sounds like a mistake to me to go full Atlantic against this play. Hawaii needs to be threatened. I surmise that you have sent two full ac, bb, some destroyers and subs there. A force which could not stand up to a decent counter or am I getting it wrong?