In a recent game, someone did a Java stack turn 1 with 3inf 1AAA 1tac and 5 fighters. Also, SZ42 had a DD to prevent bombardment. Now, the attack on the Philippines, with a J1 DOW, had a triple hit against the Japanese so only an artillery remained. Also, the Borneo transport could only bring inf. This made the attack on Java a 45% probability.
Perhaps optimal Axis moves would have meant losing a plane in the Philippines battle to keep an art and a tank (which could have been used rather than 2 art). Also, leaving an inf on Siam. Such moves would mean that an attack on Java would be a +7IPC battle on average https://goo.gl/ScnPJT .
So would such an attack be worth it for Japan? Did I leave a gap for the allies by keeping my planes in the Philippines battle? I’m inclined to think it probably would be worth it to trade plane for plane for Japan in this case.
Now if you have a bid, should you spend 10 of it to block such an attack by Japan? It then becomes a 40% battle. Perhaps the battle is still viable for Japan? Should you spend 20 to make it even harder?
Next thing is if the Allied planes get back to India, it becomes a very dodgy battle to take India J3, typically costing more than half the Japanese air force. Really don’t think that is worth it.
@Cow previously commented that the J3 India crush should work or at worst be deferred to J4. Perhaps he’s right if the Axis play optimally and there’s no bid units. Curious if he has any additional thoughts?