Allies have too much in range or potentially in range of SZ 13 for the Italians to take Gib with 1 inf and leave the trans undefended (or even defended). Losing that initial starting transport round 1 or round 2 really sucks for Italy as it doesn’t get hardly any money to start with, and the money you DO get you desperately need to spend on planes or ships to give your med fleet some defense, if you’re planning on making a run for the Italian NOs.
Really, if the Allies are gunning all out for Italy Rounds 1 and 2 with an Operation Torch strat, its difficult if not next to impossible for Italy to retain its fleet without German or Japanese help. Building a fighter round1 and a carrier rounds 2,3,4… helps me out a lot, have german or japanese fighters land on the carrier(s) that you build in the future, and it makes the allies think twice about attacking the stack. If you can get 1/2 of the japanse fleet to commit to rolling through the suez into the med you can seize the initiative and actually take the fight to the US and UK … works pretty well, and secures your NOs and the middle of the board for the rest of the game. Just don’t pour too much into it or the Russians will eat you alive.