Posts made by rjclayton

A&A “Etiquette” suggests you should roll the SBR before you roll the combat resolution for the territory.

Yes, confirming what Nix said.

True, but if Japan can be kept out of Africa and pushed back all the way to India/Persia by the US/Russia combo, isn’t this potentially a better tradeoff for the allies?  Remember, we are talking about alternative strategies that have potential.  I think this one has potential.

Thanks.

I’ll hijack this one a little, or just expand on the question, depending on your viewpoint:

In Classic, when a capital is captured, all empty territories that were owned by the fallen player changed ownership to the player capturing their capital.  Does this still happen in revised?

I thought Squire’s preferred build was 2 trn.  But I can’t remember where I got this idea so I may be wrong.  I may just be remembering the Caspian Sub paper.

I like the axis_roll explanation quite a lot.  I don’t know if he is suggeting UK transports in the MED.  I think he may be suggesting keeping the UK transports in the baltic or north of karelia, and the MED fleet would then be just US.

When you think about it, The US probably gets to the action faster this way, than if they did the normal ECA -> UK then UK -> NOR, then walk to the action.  In this MED scenario, US does ECA -> ALG then walk ALG -> LIB, then trn LIB -> SEU/CAU/BAL/EGY/PER/WEU wherever the action is.  Probably CAU/PER though to help against Japan and keep them out of Africa.

@balungaloaf:

i wore a uniform until i graduated from high school. and the high school uniform was only no jeans or sweats, and no t shirts.  thats it.

That’s not a uniform.  That’s just a dress code.

Hey, thanks for the correction.

I disagree with one part of NPB’s post.  The LOWEST bidder should be awarded the country, not the highest bidder.

Otherwise I bid 7 million and o lookee here I get to play Germany with 7 million extra IPC?

I thought the air units could only retreat from an amphib once the land units are wiped out?

I believe that when you retreat you must retreat all units from combat at the same time.  You cannot do a partial retreat.

All subs have to act together, but can act independently of other units in battle.

Yes, yes, side bets are always fair game.

@newpaintbrush:

What if Hauptmann-Jager is planning on countering the Allied counter to the G1 buy?

@U-505:

With what? Jennifer Connelly? That’s one smokin’ hot counter if I ever saw one. You could distract your opponent while you build more … snatch … Hereafter known as the German Jennifer Connelly response to the Allied response to the German Baltic buildup. Or the JC softcore porn defense for short.

LMFAO  :lol: :lol: :lol:

@U-505:

And raise…… (+1)

Jennifer Connelly. Yummy.

I throw the rulebook at you.  You are not allowed to do this, it is called “string-betting” and any reputable establishment would make you take your raise back.

I’ll agree that strafing is an art (or skill), not really easily taught to a beginner.  If you were playing a game with players of differing skill levels, I’d recommend to you that you assign powers in the following order, from the most skilled player to the least skilled player:
Germany
Russia
Japan
United Kingdom
USA

The reason Germany and Russia are the top 2 skilled players is because of the strafing and having to maintain the delicate balance of fighting a war on multiple fronts.  For the most part, the other powers only wage a 1 front war, except for possibly Japan in a KJF.

Bashir, I gotta agree with you here.

Sorry, I don’t have any maps available.  I am actually in the midst of playing my first ever revised game as we speak.

I would think that you might want to try to avoid excluding earlier rounds.  Ideally you want to be able to take any game, plug in the critical dimensions into the formula, and spit out some sort of expected outcome.  Just because a game was in the early rounds, doesn’t mean you shouldn’t try to take a crack at predicting the outcome, does it?

I wonder if you could also try to calculate a confidence level?  Eg. Game 1 was in round 30, and based on the independent variables the axis should win with a confidence level of 90%.  Game 2 was only in round 6, and it was calculated that the axis should win but with a confidence level only of 55%.

Or something along those lines.

Not sure what the calculations would look like though…

I guess I’m suggesting something like weighted least squares

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_least_squares

My university math is pretty fuzzy, and as I recall we only touched on regression.  I didn’t take too many stats courses.

But yes, what I am describing is covered by linear regression.  What I was attempting to do was demonstrate that Y need not be an independent variable with only possible outcomes of 0 or 1, in response to:

@akreider2:

Is anyone an expert on different types of regressions?  I’m wondering how much a problem using a linear regression is for a variable that only has a 1 or 0 outcome?

The problem is that the difference between winning by a slim margin, and totally devasting someone can be big.  For instance, you can win a narrow victory with the Axis and Allies unit IPCs being equal, or have a big victory with a 200+ IPC difference.  Ideally you’d have a win that was a “1” and a larger win that was a “1.5” or “2”.  Any idea of how to measure this based on an Axis and Allies board?  You could use victory cities, but I tend to think that they are a joke.

Is there any way to parse a map file? I’d like to convert it into an array of number of units per country, so I could write a computer program to generate a data file for analysis.

With the latest model, 1) AXIS IPC territory held (J+G territory) and 2) total unit IPC value difference are the two significant factors (p=0.001).

If you allow Y to be a real number between 0 and 1, then I think it makes your linear regression model work better with it, and also solves your concern of a narrow victory versus a landslide win.

Also, parsing a map file would depend on the format used.  TripleA map files would be pretty simple to parse, since the project is open source you should be able to look at the code and determine the format of the file.  Mapview is not open source, but Motdc is actively developing for it and he might be open to helping parse a mapview map file.  ABattlemap would be near impossible as far as I can tell, since I don’t believe anyone is actively developing this application anymore.  Unfortunately I’d say 80% of the map files on this board are ABattlemap, so that may put a big kink in those plans.