If I could see the SZ’s better in the photos I could form a better reply, but the Germans have 5 subs out there. Germany and Italy can take out all three French land areas on their first turns. Germany can take France/Holland&Bel with no aircraft if they wanted to do that(not saying I would use 0 aircraft…but for sure use the air that can not attack UK naval units)…and use whatever Luftwaffe is within range in combo with SUBS where I can. Its possible all the UK TRS are sunk on the first turn, and it could be difficult for UK to build any TRS on their first turn. The Germans will move the Luftwaffe closer to the Med and Atlantic as they advance in the direction of Gibraltar. I think it would be suicide for UK to try to get land units into Malta.
Do you really want to move the FTR out of Egypt?..and if UK abandons(or reduces) Egypt, then I would imagine that FTR going somewhere other than Malta(India, S. Africa?). It would take two turns to get the FTR’s from UK to Malta. I just dont see doing this. If the global game started with something in Malta(1 INF, 1 FTR, and 1 SUB in the SZ, AB), then I could see a possible opportunity to do what you want, but even then I’d be very tempted to send the FTR in Malta to Egypt. UK building an airbase in Malta is like building it for Italy. I think a competant Axis player would force a competant Allied player to abandon any idea of sending units to Malta, and if the Allied player did this, force the Allied player to pay a high cost…ie, losing Egypt, losing Malta, and the units UK used in the adventure.
As you said, we could debate better if we knew knew the map better and the unit placements with more confidence. And yes, the Germans certainly have the potential to attack every UK transport, which (if successful) would put a crimp in the Fortress Malta strategy. I’m not advocating this as a “be all and end all” strategy, just one that I think has a lot of potential if the cards fall your way. Germany may want to concentrate on taking out the UK Battleship. They might want to get as many subs as possible into the South Atlantic to exploit those juicy convoy zones. They may get horribly unlucky. Whatever the case, if UK keeps a transport alive, they can threaten a UK2 Malta Fortress on turn 1, forcing Italy to either take Malta and disrupt their Africa plans or deal with the consequences. If the strategy is powerful, the I see this as a way for the UK to “juke” Italy into a suboptimal play every game without having to really commit anything.
As for your other questions, if I can establish Fortress Malta, I would absolutely rather have the plane there than in Alexandria. UK moves first, and has a bit of buffer in this game, so as long as you’re smart, it should be several turns before Egypt falls. Then, if Italy has to spend money building a navy rather than ground units, I’ve succeeded.