I was gonna post earlier but didn’t have enough time. I think all the previous posts are right on; basically if you are sure your opponent will go balls-out vs. Karelia, that’s a big advantage for you because you know what your enemy will do. By being so consistently hyperaggressive, your opponent has forfeited the element of surprise–unless he plays conservative this game though, in which case he’s wilier than you thought :o !
I think in the instance that your opponent is sure to attack Karelia, put a strong attacking force in Russia & Caucases (like some INF in Caucases & all your ARM in Russia). Don’t leave Karelia undefended–put a lot of INF there, just not quite enough to win the battle; at this point you actually WANT your opponent to invade because that’s what you expect him to do! Weaken his forces as much as you can before your army is destroyed. Then all you have to do is mop up…
Carefully consider the position of the 2 FTRs you have at your disposal. They are two of the most crucial units on the board & you don’t want to lose them. On the other hand, they are strongest defending so you want to place them where they can do the most long-term damage…
If you have deployed well, Germany will have to utilize a signifigant portion of their airpower in order to win in Karelia. That means their attacks on Britian’s fleets will be correspondingly weaker. Assuming you’ve moved your Barents Sea SZ fleet to North Sea SZ, even if Germany uses only 2 FTR to atack Karelia, odds are at least one UK BB will survive. That is very, very bad for the Axis! They will lose a FTR or 2 on the North Sea SZ attack (maybe a BMR) and still have an impossibly strong force to attack on T3 there (if UK builds its usual CV)! Sure, they might use just their navy in the Med to attack Gibraltar, but there you can often sink them T1 (maybe w/ US help)…
Basically, try to thwart the Karelia attack by judicious counterattacks & good defense, while exploiting Germany’s corresponding weakness on other fronts. Good Germany players think about ALL of their enemies, not just one–every turn–and employ every IPC to it’s absolute fullest. A direct, T1 assault on Karelia with all available forces is just not practical or efficient. It leaves one dreadfully weak in all other areas & if it fails to win you Moscow in a few turns, you’re sunk…
Ozone27
…on second thought, maybe that’s too extreme. A T1 attack on Karelia isn’t ALWAYS impractical, but it usually is. Since there is bound to be a battle there eventually anyway, might as well get it started early if you can. But usually it’s impossible to make it work…