Posts made by Nippon-koku

@EnoughSaid:

Bad odds for the Russians to attack? They’d have a 61% chance of success vs 12 infantry (or 90% in low luck), let alone 10 and a half. Stacking Manchuria with enough to simply hold the Soviets off is a viable plan, but it’s going to take more than that. If that’s all you have, the Russian player SHOULD attack you. If he doesn’t, that’s on him.
Like Nippon-koku mentioned, the Chinese would love to get the Manchurian money and spawn location.

Exactly.  Not sure if it’s because of the 1’s, but people seem to underestimate the Siberians.  Ran the calc and the highest probability was Russia survives with 11 infantry.  Non-combat those two AA guns and Japan has an issue (and that’s before China places units up there).

Again, not a bulletproof end-all be-all strategy to beat Japan.  But another example of how you can slow Japan down, and how it would take more than a simple “Well I’d just do this and the problem would be solved” to slow down the Allies.

Brief reply since I’m leaving work shortly (clearly I’ve been working hard today)

-I did miscalculate Shensi.  This is what happens when you try to post while on a conference call.  So Sinkang would be the right move on C2 (after taking back Yunan with as few units as possible)

-You can probably take the islands J4, no doubt.  But can you hold them all, every turn?  Can you take them back every turn?  Maybe, but you’re also doing it at the cost of ships and ground units.  All I’m trying to say about the DEI is that holding them is more difficult than acquiring them in the first place

-Re: Russian infantry, it’s simple: turn one all Siberian troops move to Buryatia.  R2 they all move to Amur, R3 they all move to Manchuria.  As Japan, are you willing to commit the resources needed to attack them in Amur on J2?  Again, you can do this, but you’re going to lose a good chunk in the process and set yourself back in other areas.

@WILD:

I like to buy fleet G1 (carrier+) to keep UK honest for basically the same reason as YG. I want my German buy to partially control what the UK buys in the first turn.

This is why I think 2 fighters is an ideal UK1 buy.  Gives you flexibility for whatever Germany does.

Thanks Tolstoj.  Alright, let’s look at the Allied options and ask some questions

• First, I’m going to steal a question from ShadowHAwk: what do you have in SZ 36/37 to protect those transports?  You need enough there to stop a UK/Anzac 1-2 punch.  SZ37 especially would require a lot of protection, as, in this scenario, India could hit it with a BB, DD (I’m assuming the C went over to Africa) and 3 planes, followed by AZ hitting it with a DD, C and 3 fighters

• So let’s go with your fleet at Caroline and you have transports in SZ36 with some escorts.  Right off the bat I know that as India (or Anzac) and I’m doing the following non-combat move: DD in SZ 37, preventing Japan from taking Sumatra on J3, assuring that Japan can’t get the DEI in round 3.  Japan can target the rest of the islands J4, J5 like you said, but in between you’re gonna have Anzac and US hitting those islands, trying to pick off sections of the Japanese navy, etc.

• As far as China goes, take back Yunan and non-combat as follows: if Japanese planes are in Kwangsi, retreat to Shensi, where the planes could not reach (save for the str bombers).  China would be looking at roughly 12 inf and a fighter (not counting what Russia may come in to help with) and Japan’s counter attack would mostly be 1’s.  If Japan has their planes in a spot that can reach Shensi, head back to Sikang and eventually north.  Japan can absolutely drive China back, no doubt.  But China can hang around and be a pest

• Another China idea: If Russia can walk into Manchuria on R3, or take it with ease, China could save its income for a turn (in my games China usually makes 15 turn 1 and 12 turn 2) and on C3 purchase 9 inf and place them in Manchuria.  What a pain it would be for Japan to kick that force out of the area

You’re right about the Japanese air force being able to dictate where it goes.  The argument is simply that it cannot be everywhere at once, meaning the Allies can make progress on some fronts.  Will it be enough?  Maybe, maybe not.

@ColonelCarter:

The Axis (specifically Japan) might not be able to do everything at once, but they are able to do at least 1, usually multiple things very well. If multiple Allied powers put stacks in range of the Japanese air force on the account that Japan can’t hit them all, Japan will just hit the most valuable/troublesome one (usually US navy if you advance to Carolines too early), come out positive and then swing around to the other stacks after a couple turn delay, leaving the Allies crippled in some place for minor gains elsewhere.
It’s also the reason its worth it to airblast the Chinese Rd2 in Szechwan if they stack there; yeah you lose 4 planes, but now you don’t even have to worry about the Chinese giving you one of these “split-decisions” later.

I still think Szechwan can be defended well enough that, as the Allies, I’d welcome Japan to waste air on it, but otherwise I don’t disagree with most of this.  Japan can certainly do a few things at a time and be very effective about it, and the Axis will absolutely win the game if Japan plays well and the Allies don’t coordinate.

What I’m disputing in this thread is the prevailing argument that every single Allied move in the Pacific can be countered with “Well, I’d just take my planes there.”

@Tolstoj

We’ve had some spirited discussions in our messages to each other.  All respect, I’m still perplexed by some of your statements.  If you JDOW3 you’re telling me you’re going to take and hold all the DEI, still have enough ground units eliminate China the next round and hold off any successful counter attack from Allied ships?

Let me ask: in the JDOW3 scenario you gave, where is your fleet positioned at the end of J2/start of J3?  Paint the picture for me; Japan just collected it’s money at the end of its second turn.  Where is your fleet, where are your planes and what is on the ground in China?  Let’s assume Russia has the 18 inf and 2 AA guns in Amur, Japan took back Yunan, China has enough to take it on its turn, but turn 3 Japan will take and hold it, Anzac has Java and Sumatra, just a couple of guys on each.

@ShadowHAwk:

Those planes cannot be on carriers and fight in china and be on japan at the same turn.
Those 13 land units are needed on your transports to take islands remember. So you wont have that much in china.
You keep telling you can counter anything because you got a lot of units but those units cannot be used everywhere at the same time. The whole point of the allies isnt to attack you where you are strongest but to attack you where you are weakest. If the russian 18 inf deside to take machuria while your fleet is off java and the US fleet parks itself off japan and takes korea india can pretty much go turtle up for 1 round the next round your fleet wont be off java anymore and china will have units in the north for a change.

India in this scenario can still build mechs and invade into china with the help of their airforce and at the same time defend india. And if your fleet is off Java what is there to prevent me from moving the US fleet next to japan and take korea? No your fleet cannot do it and your 21 planes will be only 12 by this time as there will be 6 on your carriers and chances are you lost 3 somewhere.

Thank you Shadow for expressing my exact sentiments when this discussion pops up.  All of the arguments I’ve made for the Allies not being completely outclassed in this game come back to one fundamental principle: the Axis cannot do everything at once.  As the Allies, your job is not easy, but it’s simple: make the Axis do too much.  Japan has a deadly airforce, but it can’t be in five or six places at the same time.

@The:

If it is an other Version than Oztea’s exellent 1941 set-up (http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=30919.0), it would be nice if you could share it with us.

It was Oztea’s setup and it was excellent.  It’s a completely different game and I enjoyed it very much.  We had five people, I played as US and Anzac and was able to shut Japan down.  They didn’t take India until turn 8 and after taking it had no shot to get Hawaii or Sydney; they were out out of capital ships, China was doing very well after being aided by Russia, US had firm control of the DEI and Japan didn’t have the income to get that 6th VC.

We ended up calling the game after Germany won big in a battle that should’ve been a mutual annihilation.  As usual, it just came down to the rolling in one big battle  :-D

Great version and I look forward to playing it again

@SubmersedElk:

@Nippon-koku:

@SubmersedElk:

But the US enters the war on their next turn… isn’t Japan typically going for those islands on their next move anyway? How does J3 and US3 change in practice with a UK2 DOW?

Now that I’m thinking it through the whole way, is there a good reason UK and ANZAC shouldn’t DOW Japan on their 2nd turns every game?

Funny you should mention this because I had the exact same revelation yesterday.  The only thing I can come up with is that if the US is planning heavy Atlantic activity and really wants to get to Gibraltar on turn 3.  Otherwise, there is no reason not to do this.

OK good to know I’m not totally crazy… so unless there’s some huge benefit to having US units in Gibraltar in turn 3 rather than turn 4, it sounds like a good idea for UK/ANZAC to take the initiative instead of waiting for Japan to maneuver at its leisure. Whatever Japan’s plan was for J3 then gets disrupted at least a little bit, and that seems to give China a much better chance to survive.

Exactly.  I’m resuming a game tonight (about to start turn 3) where I did just that and the result is that between the Chinese units, Indian units, Russian units (got 2 tanks, 2 mechs and a fighter there just for this turn) and Anzac planes, Yunan will be held J3.

@SubmersedElk:

But the US enters the war on their next turn… isn’t Japan typically going for those islands on their next move anyway? How does J3 and US3 change in practice with a UK2 DOW?

Now that I’m thinking it through the whole way, is there a good reason UK and ANZAC shouldn’t DOW Japan on their 2nd turns every game?

Funny you should mention this because I had the exact same revelation yesterday.  The only thing I can come up with is that if the US is planning heavy Atlantic activity and really wants to get to Gibraltar on turn 3.  Otherwise, there is no reason not to do this.

G1: Depends on what kind of game I’m going for, but usually 7 art or 1 sub, 1 DD, 1 CV
G2: All tanks

No real explanation needed on these

R1 & 2: 9 inf, 1 ftr

It’s important to expand Russia’s air force

J1: 2 transports, 1 factory (Shangtung)
J2: 3 tanks, 2 trans, 1 inf, 1 art

Again, pretty self explanatory.  I prefer the tanks to mechs because it lets me focus my planes elsewhere.

US1: 4 transports, 1 CV, 1 DD all in the Atlantic
US2: 2 transports, 1 CV, 2 inf in the Atlantic, 1 CV in the Pacific

As most of you know, I believe you buy heavy in the Atlantic US1&2 and then majority spend in the Pacific the rest of the way.  By turn three America has a major landing force threatening several spots.

UK1: 2 ftrs, save 8
UK2: (assuming no Sealion) Too hard to say.  Absolutely would have to see the board at this point. My guess is something to assist America in the Atlantic (CV and transports in Canada, more fighters, etc).

IT1: Usually a fighter
IT2: Again, just depends too much on the board

AZ1: 1 tranport, 1 inf
AZ2: 1 transport, 1 sub or 1 ftr, save 4

Simple enough

@SubmersedElk:

Why would anyone NOT do the Taranto raid? What’s the alternative benefit from using that fleet elsewhere that can compensate for leaving Italy with opportunities to contest Africa and the ME?

I’ve seen plenty of success without the raid.  It gives up a lot of UK pieces to take Italy pieces, an exchange I don’t love as the UK player.

@cyanight:

@Nippon-koku:

@WILD:

Wow Nippon-koku I don’t think I remember a game where the Germans left the sz110 fleet alive.

I think it’s weird too.�  I never understand the move

I have seen it successful. When Germany takes out 106, 109 and 111, it makes it very easy for Germany to dominate the Atlantic with subs.  Removing all the DD’s makes gives the subs free reign. Then there is the convoy damage done to UK for the first 2-4 turns or more.

That’s a move I like to do as Germany.  Gives them some solid convoy’s early on and a G1 buy of 5 subs can cause some panic in the Atlantic

Alternate setup.  I don’t know anything about it.

@Marshmallow:

You guys are smoking crack! A 20 bid for the Allies? How could the Allies possibly lose with a 20 bid? A couple of extra infantry for China (buh-bye J1 progress!), a sub for the Med (Hello 100% Taranto win!), and a couple of units for Russia (so much for any hope of a G6 attack on Moscow succeeding!)

My thoughts exactly.  I’m not sure what the exact restrictions are (I think I’ve read only one unit per space and it has to be somewhere that already has at least one unit) but I don’t see how this doesn’t stack the game in the Allies favor.

Like you said: a sub in the Med is a back breaker for Italy.  Hell, sub in the Med, fighter on Egypt and you can Taranto without touching any planes from London, with 4 IPC left to add a unit in Yunan.

How about another BB in the Channel?  Would Germany still be able to take out 110 and 111?  How about a DD in 111 and a fighter on Scotland?  Again, would Germany have the resources to take out both SZ’s?  If not, they’re in a lot of trouble right off the bat.

An additional inf in every Chinese territory?  Two more fighters for Russia?  If you’re playing a Japan player who prefers JDOW1 you could easily shut that down with additional units in key spots.

There are at least another dozen examples like this.  I just don’t see it gentlemen

@ShadowHAwk:

It does not have to, japan can kill any 1 country easy at the expense of not attacking others. IF you want to take out china for a few rounds sure UK-Pac will be making 24 a turn, anzac 14 and they will have a good time building up. By the time you get to the money islands they will have a garison on them so it takes you 2 transports each and a big mixed fleet to destroy any transport that does not have half your starting fleet with them.

My thoughts exactly.  Said with a smile: the reply from an Axis player cannot always just be “Well then I’d just do A, B and C” without any regard to the fact that the Allied players ALSO get to purchase units, move, etc.

Let me know how it goes.  I’m genuinely curious!

Trying my first game of 1941 this weekend, so we’ll see if I can move as quickly as normal

I’ve been one of the more vocal “The Allies aren’t under-powered” board members, so I don’t agree that they are doomed from the get go.

I’m actually writing up an Allied strategy essay.  The debate has been had so often that I thought it would be a fun project.  I address some of the topics you brought up here.  I’ll let you know when it’s done, if you have any interest in reading it  :-D

@WILD:

Wow Nippon-koku I don’t think I remember a game where the Germans left the sz110 fleet alive.

I think it’s weird too.  I never understand the move

@calvinhobbesliker:

China can’t stack Szechwan to retake Yunnan on C1 because Japan will just attack the stack with its 20 planes and kill it, so the Chinese troops have to cede Yunnan after only 1 turn.

Want to make sure I’m understanding you:

You’re saying that Japan would stack, say Kwangsi, with all its planes and attack the Chinese units in Szechwan on J2?  As the China player, I’d gladly welcome that.  Figure Szechwan should have 10 inf and a fighter, meaning 4 hits.  If you want to sacrifice four planes to take out some Chinese infantry be my guest.

Not only that, one could easily add some beef to Szechwan on R2 (they could get 2 mechs and 2 tanks there), which now means Japan is looking at a loss of 6 planes on the first round of combat, and 2 more on the next round (Japan’s 20 planes you mentioned should account for 12 hits, leaving two tanks and a fighter).  So now Japan is giving up 8 planes to take out Chinese ground units and 4 Russian units?  Again, I’d gladly welcome that and I’d wager to guess that, under those conditions, you wouldn’t even launch that attack to begin with, leaving China free to retake Yunan on C2.

But let’s say you still do that attack and lose the 8 planes, fine.  What about the 18 Russia troops in Amur that I’m about to move into Korea or Manchuria on turn 3?  Let’s say I choose Manchuria: how are you taking that back on J3?  It’s possible, but you’d have to commit a ton of resources, including committing transports and just about all your remaining airforce, meaning 6 AA shots for Russia before the battle even begins.  After that battle Japan would be down most of its Asian ground force and around 10 planes.  If you don’t attack, or the attack fails, now China can spend its money (admittedly not much) on units in Manchuria and start collecting a little each turn, while Russia looms as a major annoyance.

This sort of discussion is why I never buy the idea that the Axis are unstoppable.  Are these moves game winners on their own?  Probably not.  But if the Allies work as a team they can come up with plenty of ways to disrupt the Axis powers.

I believe the fake Sealion can be countered with a UK1 buy of 2 fighters.  Move the units from Scotland to London, bring up that fighter from Gibraltar and suddenly London has 7 fighters, making it harder for Germany to think about Raiding it.  Even if Germany still went for the Raid, London should have about 42 to spend (saving 8 from the first turn), which means they could repair damage and still be able to buy a stack of infantry.  Let’s say Germany decides to Sealion and went in with 2 bombers, doing 12 damage; 42 is a repaired factory + ten inf, leaving London with 16 inf, 1 mech, 5 AA and 7 fighters.  That’s a pretty solid defense