To me, it’s a question of which Axis power is more vulnerable. I consider Germany to be much more vulnerable considering its location which makes it possible for UK, US, and Russia to gang up on it.
Japan shouldn’t have a hard time controlling the Asian coast in any event because of the logistics problems that Russia will have in getting units to the coast, and the problems UK will have in getting any kind of force into the area. US can’t prevent Japan from controlling the Asian coast for a while.
So the only thing that makes it possible to KJF is Japan somehow making itself more vulnerable, which to me means the loss of at least two battleships and/or carriers, or a battleship/carrier and three or four air minimum.
I’ve seen you implement KJF quite well in some games I’ve looked in on, Hobbes, but I have yet to see your opponents take the best line. They don’t fly German fighters to the Japanese fleet, and they typically set up inefficiently in Asia. In the following, I’m leaving out pretty much anything not immediately relevant, like the UK2 air attack on the German battleship/transport.
Let’s say “typical” game, and stipulate Germany builds 5 infantry 5 tanks or 1 air unit and mix of ground, but that Germany does NOT build a carrier. We’ll also say that Germany ends its turn either in control of Anglo-Egypt with at least 1 tank, or has 6 ground units and 1 fighter in Libya.
On UK’s turn, it can counter Anglo-Egypt with good odds of success, or it can attack French Indochina; depending on its choice, it may also put a fighter on Buryatia to join 6 Russian infantry.
Say Japan builds 3 transports 1 destroyer on J1. I consider there are two worst case scenarios.
1. Russia has 6 infantry in Buryatia, UK controls French Indochina, China has UK fighter. UK sub at New Guinea. UK bomber at Yakut.
2. Russia has 6 infantry and 1 UK fighter in Buryatia. UK sub at New Guinea. UK bomber at Yakut.
So let’s say Japan is anticipating a KGF. Let’s also say Germany is poised to take control of Anglo-Egypt and Trans-Jordan on G2 opening the Suez Canal for the Japanese battleship and carrier that start at East Indies to reinforce on J2. That means on J1 Japan will want to send its battleship and carrier west, leaving the French Indochina sea zone unprotected.
There are two Japanese responses, both going with the general-purpose build of 3 transports 1 destroyer. Both hit China with two or more fighters plus infantry, minimum, and both leave a battleship and carrier in the sea zone east of Japan at the end of J1.
1. Keep all transports alive - Hit Buryatia with 3 infantry 1 tank 3 fighter 1 bomber 1 battleship support shot and 1 cruiser support shot. (Possibly a fourth fighter if French Indochina was not hit). Japan can attack the Hawaiian Islands fleet with a single Japanese sub.
2. Sacrifice a transport - Hit Pearl Harbor, leave Buryatia alone. Transport ground units to Kwangtung or Manchuria along with fighters to hold it against Allied attack. The Jap transport can get whacked by the UK bomber. Or Japan can keep its transport and just pull the infantry off Wake.
At the beginning of J1, Japan controls 6 ground on Japan, 1 on Wake, 1 on Okinawa, 2 on Phillipines, total 10. A transport takes 2 off, leaving 8. That leaves 8 units and 4 transports for the beginning of J2. Worst case scenario, Wake and Okinawa both still have 1 infantry, meaning 2 of those transports (at least) should end J2 in the sea zone east of Japan, having dropped to Buryatia. J2 can hit Buryatia with about 7 infantry 1 artillery 2 fighters 1 bomber absolute minimum; probably more. But before going into the J2 moves, we have G2.
Germany sees the US fleet build in Pacific, so should send its Libya fighter (at least) east towards Japan to threaten US destroyer blocks.
Now on J2, Japan sees the Pac fleet build. It transports units to Asia based on its J1 build, and moves the East Indies battleship and carrier to the French Indochina sea zone. Japan should control both the French Indochina sea zone and the sea zone east of Japan without any problem.
If Allies stacked Buryatia, Japan smashes Buryatia and kills a lot of Allied air, which puts the Japs considerably up. It is possible for the Allies to super stack Buryatia, but Germany can go really wild if Russia’s draining that much from its western front.
If Allies didn’t stack Buryatia, Japan hits Buryatia and sends 1-2 transport to French Indochina.
Japan’s J2 build should change based on the board situation, ideally setting up its J3 moves. J1 should have 27 IPCs minimum income (if Japan lost New Guinea and Borneo but gained China); since Japan didn’t spend 1 IPC on J1, it has 28 IPCs at the start of J2.
The planned transport routes for J2 are 2 transport to French Indochina, 2 transports to sea zone east of Japan (Buryatia). On J3, one of the French Indochina transports can pick up from East Indies, so that leaves Japan 6 ground units short. Japan can easily purchase 6 infantry with 18 IPCs, leaving 10-16 more IPCs to purchase subs and/or destroyers with, and still maintaining 8 ground to Europe (2 from East Indies, 6 from Japan). J4+ should have Japan trying to shuttle 4-6 ground units a turn into Asia, with excess transports hitting points in Africa or retaking territory in the Pacific. If Russia marches to the coast, Japan beats the hell out of them with infantry and fighters and Germany goes all PAC-MAN nom nom nom
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All the above isn’t to say that KJF doesn’t work. But it shouldn’t be a cakewalk.