@andrewaagamer
After playing it out through round 4 and following your purchases and moves as much as possible, here is where I see things:
-On your point about taking Malaya with as minimal fleet forces as possible on J3, I do not believe that is advisable. The UK should easily have a stack on Burma, and likely one on Shan State (especially in a 1v1 since you wouldn’t have the potential complication of splitting countries and the UK player not knowing the US strategy). By holding any one of of the territories bordering SZ37, the allies can attack the Jap fleet there with DD + CA + 3fg by Anzac plus anything purchased AZ1. They can also attack presumably with the 3 UK planes and any ships that are off India or otherwise in range. A small fleet would likely be wiped out. Therefore in my play test, I assumed all the ships that took Sumatra and Java J2 go to SZ37 (2CV, 2BB. 1CA, 2DD) This should be enough to deter an allied attack Rd3.
However, even this assumes that the US has not moved anything down to Queensland yet. The way I play, I move bombers there ASAP, and also would fly the tac down, since it is excess to the carrier and 3 plane scramble from Hawaii. So I would already have 5 bombers and a tac there. With a 3 phase attack of:
US: 5 bombers, 1 tac
UK: 2fg, 1 tac, ships depending on location (I moved them west to keep them out of range, so none in my example)
AZ: 3fg, 1 DD, 1 CA
I think the cost of taking Malaya would be rather extreme and those ships should just head back to the Philippines J3. If the UK has stacked Shan State, Japan won’t even hold Malaya for a turn.
Now, onto the $ islands.
In my scenario AZ can take 1 back AZ3. I chose Java (reason based on UK ship positioning).
US4 take back Celebes and Borneo.
UK4, take back Sumatra. TT had previously been moved west to keep it safe from the Japs.
So now, beginning rd5 I have the massive Combined Fleet sitting at the Philippines plus a 3fg scramble (since those planes are clearly not needed on the homeland for the time being).
US and AZ fleet and all planes on Queensland and SZ54 with the following exceptions:
US DD blocking in SZ25.
US DD blocking in SZ46.
AZ DD blocking in SZ45.
I think the situation for Japan at this point is quite worse than you had laid out.
AZ is safe at this point with all the land units and fighters stacked there. Queensland can’t be attacked until J7 anyway since J5 and J6 would have to be spent killing the blockers then killing the fleet. But even then, 5 fully loaded TTs and 6 fully loaded carriers isn’t enough to take it.
India could be threated on J6 but the burma stack will have time to retreat and Japan would have to sacrifice multiple planes to take it.
Lastly, Japan could go to the Carolines J5, then take Hawaii J6. This would at least force the US to invest in units to protect the west coast. But with several more turns for UK and AZ to build their forces getting that 6th VC would be impossible for several more turns. The US bombers could be flown to India to wipe out any units on weakly held Jap territories and allow UK to take back the entire peninsula.
Meanwhile with all 4 $ islands lost, Japan will not be in a great position economically regardless of the direction they take unless they start re-taking islands, which will likely delay the assault on any VC. And Japan definitely needs to kill the allied TTs J5.
Another downside of building so many carriers is that remaining number of planes on the mainland is significantly reduced in order to load the carriers. This makes it even more difficult to kill the UK stack, wherever it may be.