I should clarify that the dice hurt Me1945 not me. I’ve had some of the best dice I’ve had in this game.
I’m a little rusty on everything that happened in the early game, but there may be different options for this attack early. It certainly is quite risky and you would need everything to land right and I think it counts on the allies to make some wrong choices early. But since this is unexpected, its easier for the allies to make mistakes.
I think what allowed me to win (apart from the dice) was 1) that his commitment to the Western front, meant that the Soviets could stop the German advance in Bryansk; and 2) it was early enough that I had time to shift the US focus to the Atlantic without Japan getting out of control. So one reason he may have done Greece and Sweden later, was because he was trying to get enough troops to the Eastern front to push through. In the early stages though, I often felt that I had just enough units to do what I wanted safely and little room for error. A few less units and the game could have been turned.