There is no way to bring Italy down that fast.
I made a joke.
Italy joined the Allies in 1943.
If the allies are able to send three Bombers pert turn to Italy… That will a problem.
But you are not forced to repair you ICs. The maximum damage they can do to Italy is 12.
With the “keep-the-mediterian-sea-allied-free bonus” Italy can build a new IC in balkan.
Out of reach for allied bombers.
And every allied bomber means less allied ships. Remember: german subs are safe from british figthers. Transports can’t fight anymore.
A good strategy for germany is to support Italy with the attack on Egypt.
There is a german Transporter in southern france. It picks up 2 Infantrys from france to egypt and with the german forces from lybia and the german bomber support you kill or reduce the strong UK forces in egypt.
Now UK will not be able to attack lybia or fortify egypt with the transjordan units and Italy is able to invade egypt.
By the way:I think the italian battleship and 1 cruiser are needed to close the mediterian sea at gibraltar.