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    Posts made by Lucifer

    • RE: German Naval Build Round 1

      TripleA ladder rules states 9 bid for axis, you can only place one unit at a territory.
      And no attacks on capital rnd 1 with ground units. And a few other rules which is not so important.
      Most ppl in the lobby does not play with strict ladder rules and 9 bid set pre game.

      I agree that with 1 trans bid for G and sealion attempt rnd 1 is not a good game.
      The winners or losers are decided by dicerolls before first turn is finished.
      Although A&A is a dicegame which often is decided by luck, but not this early in the game.
      So Romulus, you play with lowluck?

      I started playing lowluck with the classic boardgame over 15 years ago.
      Low luck should be OOB rules or with the LHTR 2.1 ruleset.

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
    • RE: German Naval Build Round 1

      I just read quickly through the LHTR 2.0, and I was confusing this with the tripleA ladder rules  :|

      So we can do sealion on G1.
      But as I said before, I’m not worried about losing UK rnd 1.
      And if this was a good opportunity to win a game, then why would I not see it more often in the tripleA lobby?
      You can get lucky and unlucky anytime in A&A, but sealion G1 with 33% is not a good move for axis.

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
    • RE: Nit picky German Economizer

      @Jennifer:

      Axis don’t need Africa to win, it just makes it 10 times easier.

      Mmm.

      Most games I’ve seen when G has all of Africa for many rnds, allies lose.

      So if US+UK don’t take back Africa if G got lucky in the first rnd, then allies do not play with clever strategy.

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
    • RE: Nit picky German Economizer

      @trihero:

      This may or may not be news, but I thought I’d share a small idea that I haven’t seen much discussed:

      With Germany, in a KGF situation, you should absolutely try to avoid holding any border territory with any men if you already control it or can blitz it.

      I think this a small point, but every little bit counts.

      For instance, usually Karelia is abandoned by the Russians, and sometimes they will avoid attacking Ukraine.

      I beg to differ.

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
    • RE: German Naval Build Round 1

      As UK or any other allie power, I wouldn’t worry if sealion failes, that is G don’t take London.
      If G actually captures London then it’s game over for allies.

      Sealion G1 in detail with 1 trans bid in Baltic.

      2 inf +2 tanks + 2 ftrs + 1 bmr. vs 2 inf, 1 tank, 1 art, 2 ftrs, 1 bmr.
      AA fires first, if any planes are hit then G won’t take London.
      If no AA hits, then this is about 45%-49% for G capturing UK.

      G would get 3 hits statistically, UK would get also get 3 hits in first wave of attack.
      Now we’re left with G: 1 tank, 2 ftrs, 1 bmr. UK: 1 art, 1 tank, 2 ftrs.

      Second wave of combat. average dice rolls means G get 2 hits, last dice on one does not hit.
      UK hits also with 2, the last dice on misses.

      3rd. wave of combat. G left with 1 tank + bmr. UK got 2 ftrs.

      As you can see, G need very much luck to pull this off, and if it fails, then this is a clear setback for Germany.
      I would not be too worried about the rest of the game as playing UK.
      No AA hits is not very plausible, it’s precisely 50% plausible.
      With LHTR you cannot attack capital with land units during first rnd.
      But dice can let you down anytime anywhere in this game.

      If Germany walks away with Bank of England then I’m sure this is over.
      Not even dice gods can save allies if Germany succeds with the sealion attempt.

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
    • RE: German Naval Build Round 1

      With 2 trans total G1, G has 31%-34% odds for sealion success with reg dice.
      If G places bid somewhere else, then it’s 4% with only the original trans in Baltic.

      So 2 inf + 2 tanks + 2 ftrs + 1 bmr. have about 33% in Germans favour for sealion rnd 1.

      All my these mumbers are according to the tripleA battlecalc, which is usually pretty accurate.
      That is when predicting outcomes statistically, 5000 rolls.
      So in one battle, with few units, and sealion G1 is few units, then this is hazardous for both sides.

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
    • RE: Siberian Units

      Few players would allocate 4-5 air units to WRU with 1 Russian AA gun moved to WRU.
      It’s worth 2 ipc. I cannot remember that I have ever seen such a move with Germany.
      As G I don’t want WRU anyway. Cauc is much more important, and worth more.

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
    • RE: German Naval Build Round 1

      @axis_roll:

      Let’s ask THESE QUESTIONs then

      What are the axis odds of winning with $8 bid?
      Greater than 42%?

      ~OR~

      Germany has a 42% chance of taking out Moscow…. do you go for it?

      Odds for sealion G1 is never higher than 33%. Without kamikaze.

      If G has 42% with one land unit remaining, it depends on how much ipc Russia got. If Russia got 28-30 I probably
      go for it, even if UK or Russia can take it back. Not with low luck though.
      With G or J I would not attack with 42% if I knew for sure that next rnd I place more attacking power than allies
      could reinforce Russia with.

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
    • RE: German Naval Build Round 1

      Sealion G1, G place 1 trans in Baltic. Reg dice.
      Kamikaze scenario!

      G have 85% with 3.8 units left, also with “one attacking land must live”.

      Same with lowluck:

      G have 100% with 4,1 units left.

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
    • RE: German Naval Build Round 1

      Sealion G1 with lowluck, G place 1 trans in Baltic.

      It’s 15%-16% for sealion success, also with “one attacking land must live”.
      If no AA hits, then it’s 31%-33%, also with “one attacking land must live”.

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
    • RE: German Naval Build Round 1

      In my previous post I stated that sealion for G is about 33%. With 1 trans in Baltic.
      If G rolls bad dice first phase and retreat planes, then this might not be a turning point in the game.
      But if it fails totally and G loses all 3 planes then this is a big setback for G, because of Russia and Africa + +.
      A failed sealion G1 is not nessecarely lost game for axis, but a big setback.
      Failed sealion G2 then it’s game over. But that’s another discussion.

      This is sealion scenario G1 for Germany, with TripleA battlecalc which is not always 100% correct.
      With reg dice it is 32%-34%, also with “one attacking land must live”.
      First phase is AA fire. 2 ftrs 1 bmr means 50% one plane shot down.
      If no planes are hit, then it’s 44%-46%, also with “one attacking land must live”.
      If AA hits one ftr, then it’s about 18%, also with “one attacking land must live”.
      Remember that if bc says 1%, this is not always true in reality, if 5-10-500 defending units
      should be remaining. But with reg dice nothing is 100% impossible.

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
    • RE: German Naval Build Round 1

      If Germany fails in sealion, then Germany is dead. Usually, and granted that G got all ftrs killed in the attempt.
      But if Germany takes london and 30 ipc from UK, then there’s no hope for allies.

      We might start a discussion on weather allies can recover, even when US can recapture London.
      I don’t think 1 out 10 times is an interesting debate. Maybe the number is 1 out of 50 times, that allies can win if sealion succeds.

      1. G gets 30 ipc, + 8 for London.
      2. UK cant buy for one turn. UK lose 2 rnds because if this.
      3. Nearly all UK ground units in Northern Europe are killed. 
      4. US lose 1 rnd in Europe to take back London.
      5. Depending on how big fleet G has, either with sealion G1 or G2, US+UK needs to stack London
        to prevent two sealion’s in the same game…. 
      6. Fill in plz.

      I really don’t se the problem if G place an 8 bid trans in Baltic.
      If G attempts sealion, then you win about 70% of the those games.
      That is if sealion G1. G2, that’s another story.

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
    • RE: Nit picky German Economizer

      Axis does not need Africa to win, allies can’t win without Africa, generally speaking.
      This is because Jap always gains around 12-15 ipc in Asia mainland.
      And there’s the 26 ipc gap equalled out.

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
    • RE: Russian Fighters

      I bought 4 ftrs once with Russia, and won.
      That was without bid for axis.
      Generally 1-2 Russian ftrs could pay for themself by rnd 5.

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
    • RE: Another German Navy Opener

      AC G1 may force UK to build 2 AC’s, G can use the AC as fodder against UK.
      If UK land in Norway UK1, then Russia can block with sub on R2.

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
    • RE: What percentage is luck involved in a games outcome?

      To answer the topic title, too much if played with reg dice.

      Lowluck is the name of the game.

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
    • RE: Another German Navy Opener

      @axis_roll:

      How about a DD purchase G1?

      Yeah, how bout that?

      Nah, how long can you keep baltic with one DD + original stuff?
      Is 12 ipc worth one rnd without brits?
      You tell me.  :wink:

      Personally I wanna keep UK out until rnd 3-4, maybe 5 with AC buy.
      But then again, it’s not the freakin AC that matters, it’s how you use it.

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
    • RE: German Naval Build Round 1

      If the AA gun doesn’t get any hits, it’s 32% with lowluck, and 45%-46% with reg dice….    :mrgreen:
      How bout some short games???  :-D :lol: 8-)

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
    • RE: German Naval Build Round 1

      @ncscswitch:

      I dislike setting up my board to have the game determined by a dice roll on G1 that has a 38% chance of clearing London

      It’s 16% for sealion victory with lowluck.
      32% with reg dice.

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
    • RE: Strategy, gameplay, tactics, and whathaveyou!

      Romulus, you mentioned several factors on my “list”.

      First, luck is irrellevant because I meant only those things that humans can intefere with.
      And logistics are very important too, but in my observations on gameplay variations between different players, I
      include only the thinking and decision making that lies behind different moves and actions in a game.

      Tactics.
      Very important. I.e. blocking naval units, blocking the G stack of 20/10 tanks/inf with 1 inf in WRU….

      Probabilities evaluation. I would not use such words, but english is not my first language.
      I would say judgement, it’s the same thing anyway.
      In tripleA you can use the battlecalc. I’m not using it often, but when stacks are getting big there’s too large numbers
      for my brain to figure out the outcome of a possible attack. You have to know if your enemy can take WE or Caucus.
      In reg dice games this is tricky, if the battlecalc says 51%…will your forces be attacked…?

      Concentration. This is one of the most important issues for newbies. Like me.
      If you’re attacking Berlin with everything UK has got, then you certainly lose your planes if you know for certain that you will take the capital.
      But if you forget for a second that it’s Berlin and not WE, in WE you always retreat planes if your not taking it, or
      you got crappy dice. And you always choose tanks or inf as casualities instead of ftrs.
      Not so if you’re knocking on the door to Hitlers bunker.
      Sometimes I even forget to move stuff from NY to Canada, or from Canada to UK/Algeria.
      AA guns, probably not the most important detail, but if you move them around instead of giving them to your
      opponent, he might lose some ftrs, and you might save some.

      About experience, better to have than to have not, but not all players learn from experience…and many
      don’t learn what decisions that causes either axis or allies to lose.
      I wouldn’t consider experience a skill on its own, it’s rather experience that may cause some players to posess more
      skill in several ways, than other players.

      On my list there is also, overview. Visual “intelligence”. May overlap with concentration, but the difference is that
      when lacking concentration skills you are forgetting things that you have planned to do.
      When not noticing that G can strike your UK fleet with 1 AC, 2 subs, DD+trans, 6 ftrs + bmr, then this is lack of
      overview, or not looking at the map at all. This may not happen often in boardgames, but in tripleA this seems to be
      a common problem :-)
      I’ve been there, and I also bought the t-shirt…that t-shirt could cost about 100 ipc in naval units :-(
      And don’t forget sealion G2!

      Next one is dead zone territory swapping.
      This one is really easy with lowluck.
      All here probably knows about the d.z.t.t.swapping routine, but I got comments like: “why keep taking WE when G takes it back every turn?”.  :lol:

      posted in Axis & Allies Revised Edition
      LuciferL
      Lucifer
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