Posts made by Latro

Actually not really. The cruiser makes my BB and CV with 2 fighters protected against 3 of his fighters attacking on UK1.

His navy is blocked entirely against SZ 112.  I have 2 subs each on each side to block a DD from coming in.

It’s not just a question about if the UK wants to attack the German fleet, but also about if it needs to attack it at all …

These two battles for example. First there’s the chance of the defending UK fleet scoring enough hits to eliminate all the submarine blockers (roughly a 20% and 30% chance). Then there’s also the smaller, but still very real, risk of losing aircraft if the attackers don’t score enough hits to prevent a second round (roughly a 10% and 15% chance).

I could fix SZ 109 attack and replace with bomber, and put the fighter with the BB attack.

The first attack IS a coin flip, but the others are not. I expect to lose 2-3 subs and a BB hit. If i roll down i expect to lose a fighter or bomber in SZ 109.

The first attack is actually even worse odds than an even coin flip (roughly a 35% chance of complete success) because the German attack also “fails” if the defending destroyer scores a hit while going down itself … only a “clean kill” works, otherwise the surviving transport would still bring reinforcements to the UK.

The attack on SZ109 gives you about a 45% chance of losing the bomber. Very costly victory that could turn out to be.

There’s also the 25% chance of losing an aircraft in the attack on SZ112.

One CA blocks at SZ 104 the subs block either DD.

If i lose both subs in one battle, i think i can still win against 3 fighters and DD against a 2 hit CV BB and 2 fighters.

This both protects my main fleet that is coming out, causes UK to avoid attacking Italian fleet, Gives Germany a chance for Sealion, kills most of UK’s fleet, and kills the balance of UK’s fleet on the next turn if they choose to attack my CA on UK1.

So my point remains that the combined risks will very likely leave Germany in a position where operation Sealion is no longer a serious threat to the UK. Simply build a stack of additional infantry, which can later be used in amphibious assaults anyway, and go ahead with other plans such as killing the Italian fleet or sink the German cruiser and start concentrating for early landings in Europe …

65% chance of reinforcements from Canada
10%, 15%, 25% chances of losing a fighter
45% chance of losing the bomber
Depending on the remaining Luftwaffe, a high % chance of an AA kill during Sealion as well.

That said, personally I never really like strategies that turn out to be a game-deciding gamble during the first few turns. Where’s the fun in that? (… even if it does work sometimes) I prefer something that results in a more long-term stronger position on the board. Less dramatic perhaps, but usually a lot more effective with little chance of a critical backfire.

In this case I would probably buy a carrier + destroyer + submarine for Germany. Kill the British home fleet with massive overkill and concentrate the German surface fleet in SZ112, land the Luftwaffe in Holland as much as possible. The main threat of this would be to place an economic blockade on the UK and possibly Canada … so the choice for the UK would be: kill the Italian fleet and lose up to 11 IPC each round, or leave the Italians and try to break the blockade.

… and even if the Italian fleet goes down, I’m curious if the UK can keep the Axis out of Egypt long enough to really matter (but that depends on the new situation in the Pacific and that’s another discussion).

8-)

@Imperious:

Germany can block with the CA in 104.

The CV cant bring the planes to attack my main fleet.

The CV can only now block in SZ 110, but alas i can swing into SZ 109 and invade from that side because uk lost the DD’s attacking my CA and SS.

Either way i stopped the Italian attack and also kill the rest of the British ships.

That was my only goal.

:| … it’s not about the chance you will win those battles, it’s all about what you risk to lose (since the focus of this strategy lies on what happens during G2).

• Attack on SZ106 with 1 sub with bad odds: a return hit at any time will save the transport at minimum and allow for reinforcements to arive in the UK … very bad for operation Sealion.

• Attack on SZ109 with 1 fighter with about even odds: losing the fighter is bad for operation Sealion, if the destroyer also survives the Kriegsmarine is at risk as well … again a very risky move.

• Attacks on SZ110/111 at good odds: good firepower and enough subs to take the returnfire. There is however for both battles a small risk that one round of shooting will not be enough and that the defenders manage to score 3 hits with the extra round (two shots from the battleship, one from the destroyer or cruiser).

• Attack on SZ112 with the surface fleet minus the cruiser: roughly a 25% chance of receiving two hits back … meaning another critical loss to either the Kriegsmarine or the Luftwaffe.

I don’t see how this would work except in cases of extreme luck. Fail in one of several battles (going from somewhat risky to very risky) and the whole thing comes crashing down, leaving the Kriegsmarine spread out and exposed, or operation Sealion already to weak before it even has begun and perhaps the Italian Fleet possibly still at risk … or all of the above.

Meanwhile the UK can sit back and relax, see what happens, see where the weak spots appear and take full advantage of it.

8-)

(PS Is it me or is the tekst-field when you reply to a post very wobbly … it makes typing very annoying.)

Almost forgot …

So far my favourite opening for Germany has been going for a strong combat oriented Kriegsmarine to put an economic blocade around the UK and delay the landings in Europe by threatening with a major battle in the atlantic. Any Allied IPC’s spent on combat units aren’t used for landings … and there’s always the option of moving back and help with minor landings in the USSR.

Some U-boats at the Normandy coast can also help … range 3 threatens a large portion of the Atlantic and makes it very hard to get close to them without being attacked first.

8-)

@Imperious:

Germany now has V3!

Actually, I think this version is a very risky/weak one:

Attack SZ106 - good one, no real risk involved

Attack SZ110 - good one, enough subs to soak up the return fire of the expected two round of shooting

Attack SZ111 - risky, not enough firepower for a reliable one round kill and not enough subs to take the damage of two round of return fire … critical air units might be lost

Attack SZ 112 - risky, enough firepower for a reliable one round kill but every return hit will either weaken the Kriegsmarine or destroy a critical air unit (there’s a very real 25% chance of even two return hits!)

The big problem with these opening moves is that the UK has the opportunity to consider the results of these battles and then plan accordingly … which is very bad from a German point of view in this case. Lose too many aircraft (don’t forget the AA that will also add to the casualties) and the UK player will simply buy a stack of infantry, place a small destroyer cordon around the capital to prevent shore bombardement and still take out the Italian Navy. If the Kriegsmarine takes too many hits, the UK can take them out with not too many problems and block any possible invasion … you just traded the Italian for the German Navy and probably moved the first amphibious landings in Europe forward by a few turns.

… and if you somehow manage to play a perfect first round with no critical losses, the UK can still go full-defense and lose nothing critical.

… and there’s also the option of only going for the transport as a previous poster pointed out.

8-)

(PS: Long-time player, incidental lurker and first-time poster … Hi Guys!)