So maxed out.
NC
-2 tac., 1 f. to Yunnan
-5 f., 5 tac. to KWA
-1 inf., 1 art., 6 inf. merge in JEHOL
-1 trans. to Japan
-sz16 dd to sz6
-2 bombers to KWA
-1 dd to sz42
-rest of navy to sz41 with 6 inf., 3 art.
-1 dd to PHI coast
-rest on map
PLACE
-3 dd’s in sz36
COLLECTS
27 + 43 = 70 IPCs
IRAQ DAMAGE (think of the videos/pictures we could post for this!)
Rolls: 1@6; Total Hits: 11@6: (6)+ 2
FORGOTTEN BATTLE: A big one–SBR on Iraq
IRAQ AA
Rolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 01@1: (2)
Well, that might’ve been a bad decision to continue, but it looks like my luck is holding out.
SZ37
Rolls: 1@2 1@4; Total Hits: 11@2: (3)1@4: (1)
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (6)
SZ43
Rolls: 1@2 1@4; Total Hits: 11@2: (4)1@4: (4)
Rolls: 1@3; Total Hits: 11@3: (2)
Burma
Rolls: 7@3 6@4; Total Hits: 97@3: (5, 2, 4, 3, 1, 4, 1)6@4: (4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 6)
Rolls: 4@2 1@3; Total Hits: 04@2: (4, 6, 6, 5)1@3: (6)
1 f. lost.
BURMA
Rolls: 1@2 10@3 8@4; Total Hits: 101@2: (4)10@3: (5, 6, 2, 6, 6, 3, 1, 5, 2, 6)8@4: (4, 3, 4, 2, 6, 2, 6, 1)
Rolls: 11@2 1@3; Total Hits: 611@2: (2, 2, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 6, 6, 6, 3)1@3: (4)
J4 - 51 IPCs
PURCHASES
-3 dd’s
-save 27
COMBAT
-1 bombers, 1 sub vs. sz37; 1 bomber, 1 sub vs. Borneo Coast
-8 f., 8 tac., 3 tanks, 1 art. vs. Burma
-1 inf. takes SZE
-1 inf. takes YAK
BURMA AA’s
Rolls: 9@1; Total Hits: 19@1: (3, 6, 2, 5, 4, 1, 6, 5, 5)
NC
-bomber to GER
-3 inf., 1 art. from France to WG
-2 inf. from Yugo to ROM
-4 inf. from Finland to NOR
PLACE
-2 inf., 3 bombers in GER
-1 bomber, 2 tac. in Romania
COLLECTS
57 - NOR CON - NORM CON
NOR CON
Rolls: 3@3; Total Hits: 23@3: (2, 3, 6)
NORM CON
Rolls: 2@3; Total Hits: 12@3: (6, 1)
G4 - 76 IPCs
PURCHASES
-4 bombers
-2 tacs
-2 inf.
COMBAT
-2 inf., 1 bomber vs. Leningrad
-11 tanks, 1 mech. vs. SUk
-stack takes BRY
LENINGRAD
Rolls: 2@1 1@4; Total Hits: 12@1: (5, 2)1@4: (1)
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (6)
SUk
Rolls: 11@3; Total Hits: 811@3: (3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 2, 5, 5, 2, 3)
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (5)
Ouch, goodbye bomber.
NC
-2 f. land in GER
-2 aa’s to WG
-tank to TUNISIA
PLACE
-land in NI, bomber in SI
COLLECTS
31
Italy - 39 IPCs
PURCHASES
-3 tanks (18)
-3 inf. (9)
-1 bomber (12)
COMBATS
-1 f. sinks sz112 UK transports
-SBR on Iraq
-France units, 1 f. vs. WG
-GIB units, 1 inf., 1 art. (Alex), 1 inf. (Cairo), mech, tank, sbs vs. TJ
-1 inf., 1 art. (NI) take Syria
WG
Rolls: 2@2 2@3; Total Hits: 12@2: (4, 5)2@3: (4, 2)
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (2)
TJ
Rolls: 2@3 1@4; Total Hits: 32@3: (3, 1)1@4: (2)
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (3)
IRAQ AA
Rolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 11@1: (1)
Spendo, the fact that a 2-interceptor would make you think twice about sending a bomber against a fighter is exactly the point.
If I’ve got interceptors then you should have to send escorts.� The way it is now, interceptors are nearly useless in all but the most extreme cases.1 IPC Reduction
1 16.67% 0.17
2 16.67% 0.33
3 16.67% 0.50
4 16.67% 0.67
5 16.67% 0.83
6 16.67% 1.00
IPC Cost to Defender per SBR 5.5Event P LAC IL ID IC NC
Ftr @1 (Miss), AA (Miss Both) 76.39% $0 $0 $11 $8 $8
Ftr @1 (Miss), AA (1 Hit) 4.63% $15 $1 $6 $0 -$0
Ftr @1 (Miss), AA (2 Hit) 2.31% $30 $1 $0 $0 -$1
Ftr @1 (Hit), AA (Miss Both) 15.28% $15 $2 $6 $1 -$1
Ftr @1 (Hit), AA (1 Hit) 0.93% $30 $0 $0 $0 -$0
Ftr @1 (Hit), AA (2 Hit) 0.46% $30 $0 $0 $0 -$0
IPC Cost to Attacker $4 $9 $5P = Probability of Event occurring
LAC = Value of Aircraft Lost
IL = P * LAC which when summed to $4 is the cost of the SBR to Germany
ID = Damage to the Major IC based off the probability of rolling a 1 through 6 (its rounded from 5.5)
IC = P * ID which when summed to $9 is the cost of the SBR to London
NC = IC - IL which when summed to $5 and cross footed ( $9-$4 ) is the actual damage the SBR causes net of all probabilities.Event P LAC IL ID IC NC
Ftr @2 (Miss), AA (No Hit) 61.11% $0 $0 $11 $7 $7
Ftr @2 (Miss), AA (1 Hit) 3.70% $15 $1 $6 $0 -$0
Ftr @2 (Miss), AA (2 Hit) 1.85% $30 $1 $0 $0 -$1
Ftr @2 (Hit), AA (No Hit) 30.56% $15 $5 $6 $2 -$3
Ftr @2 (Hit), AA (1 Hit) 1.85% $30 $1 $0 $0 -$1
Ftr @2 (Hit), AA (2 Hit) 0.93% $30 $0 $0 $0 -$0
IPC Cost $7 $9 $2P = Probability of Event occurring
LAC = Value of Aircraft Lost
IL = P * LAC which when summed to $7 is the cost of the SBR to Germany
ID = Damage to the Major IC based off the probability of rolling a 1 through 6 (its rounded from 5.5)
IC = P * ID which when summed to $9 is the cost of the SBR to London
NC = IC - IL which when summed to $2 and cross footed ( $9 - $7 ) is the actual damage the SBR causes net of all probabilities.So the change from interceptors rolling @1 versus rolling @2 is approximately 3 IPC to Germany in a 2 Bombers versus 1 Ftr scenario; an entirely possible scenario on G2.
Probabilities were derived from:
(5/6) = Miss from Ftr @1 - meaning you rolled anything but a 1
(1/6) = Hit from Ftr @1 - meaning you rolled a 1
(33/36) = Miss from AA @1 - meaning you rolled anything but a 1 on either die
(2/36) = 1 Hit from AA @1 - meaning the die roll was a 2 and a 1 or a 1 and a 2
(1/36) = 2 Hit from AA @1 - meaning you rolled snake eyes(4/6) = Miss from Ftr @2 - meaning you rolled anything but a 1 or 2
(2/6) = Hit from Ftr @2 - meaning you rolled a 1 or 2So in example, a Ftr @1 scoring a hit and AA misses both = 2/6 * 33/36 = 15.28% probability this occurs sequentially.
That probability is multiplied by the value of aircraft lost (either 15 or 30) and also by the most probable value a bomber would score for a successful SBR (5.5 per Bomber).
Then you just subtract the cost from the benefit and get the actual value (or loss) in a German SBR on London of 2 Bombers versus 1 Ftr.Something else to realize is that this is just a probability evaluation of if you should do something. A positive number indicates a gain, a negative number indicates a loss - obviously you don’t want to do something that is a loss unless there are unmeasurable advantages to gain from it.
The relevant range of IPC damage for both bombers escaping interceptors is as low as 6 IPC or as high as 16 IPC which you have approximately 6% of accomplishing against a single Ftr @1. It drops to just over a 5% chance against a single Ftr @2.
A better expectation, therefore, is to assume +/-1 from 9 IPC if both bombers get through which accounts for just shy of 50% of all probable outcomes.
Edit: Apologies for the terrible column formatting.
On a purely equal playing field, this analysis shows the rules as-are make sense (well done Spendo).
The trouble is, in the game the playing field is not equal; neither Britain nor Russia can compete with the Luftwaffe early on, and as a result a dedicated SB campaign by the Germans makes Sea Lion a certainty (on G3), and Barbarossa a likely certainty (although the evidence is, as of yet, scant).
To cite an extreme example of what I’m talking about, a pure air raid by the Japanese on the fighter stack of the Chinese is often, statistically, a poor decision (as in, the expected losses for the attacker exceed those of the defender). Nonetheless, it is done, for the simple reason that the IPCs themselves have less value to Japan than to China.
The situation is similar with Germany vs. USSR/UK.
Getting those extra fighters in place probably would save Moscow, especially given the razor-thin margins we’re dealing with at present.
In the end, the basis for this entire strategy rests with SBR rules that are poorly thought out, IMO. Interceptors should fire @ 2.
Well, it’s all about reacting to your oppoent’s moves, and the beauty of the Axis is, they start on offense.
If you start a full-out drive for Moscow on G1, your opponent must react. If he fails, great; if he succeeds, you counter. I still may hold back in the game I’m currently in, but if I do I have Leningrad, Stalingrad, and the Caucasus ripe for the picking, because he’s had no choice but to turtle.
Again, it’s too early to say too much, but one thing I am absolutely convinced of is this: With a G1 drive for Moscow, that Leningrad stack must retreat on R2 at the latest, or the game is over. A G1 Barbarossa gives you a gift-wrapped Leningrad by G3, in other words, plus the Ukraine tt’s.
As for the Middle East, what can be done? Russia got their early for some desperately-needed IPCs, but even if it was saved for Britain: UK1; take Persia, UK2; build an IC, UK3; buy planes (not cheap, BTW), UK4; finally, do something of consequence, on the last possible turn before Moscow falls.
My opponent’s best bit of luck (a questionable SBR roll notwithstanding), was G1 when he scrambled fighters against a 2 sub, 3 f/tac. pair attack on sz110 (2 cruisers, 1 BB).
I got 3 hits, he got 4, and I retreated (again, to scramble in that situation is a toss-up for the UK. You don’t do it if you expect a Sea Lion. I credit my opponent for doing it because he recognized a chance to destroy Luftwaffe and thereby help Russia, which is exactly what happened). The end result? He has 2 BB’s, 2 cruisers, and what should be 2 dd’s in sz109.
My opponent was conservative in the med–no attack on the Italian navy–but given the fact that he now has 3 f. and a tac. to send to Moscow, I think his approach was correct. He could’ve been aggressive (I had no German f. in Rome for UK1), but what good is disrupting Italy if it means losing Moscow?
UK is also slightly weak in the Middle East, because Russia had to go in first for some ICs.
UK3 will be interesting.
I just pulled a G1 barbarossa against an Allied player I really respect (Wheatbeer).
Unlike some of the other ideas in this thread, my intention was to go straight to Moscow and take it on G5 (to think of it another way, paving the way for the infantry/art. stacks in GER and SGER to go HUNG -> EP -> NUk/BEL -> SMO/BRY -> Moscow).
It’s been very interesting. As of now (the game is currently at US3), I’ve got the simulator at an 82% chance of taking Moscow in G5. Whether things play out that way is, of course, to be seen.
Some notable facts:
-my buys have been heavy on infrastructure, air, and tanks. G1 was a minor IC and AB in Romania with 2 bombers landing there following attacks on the Russian front, so as to immediately start strat. bombing Moscow G2. G2 was more bombers and a IC upgrade (I also threw a transport in the Black Sea so as to put the Bulgarian infantry into the Caucasus, but I’m unsure whether I’d do that again). G3 was a pure tank buy, and G4 (if a G5 invasion looks promising) will be complementary tac bombers.
-in order to encumber my plans to put 20 damage on Russia, my opponent passed on infantry buys for more fighters. I believe this was wise, but some may disagree. He has also positioned British planes from the med. and India to reach Moscow for UK4 (I took this into account with the sim).
-my opponent had a horrible roll when trying to clear sz125 of an Axis sub; this kept 10 IPCs out of Russian coffers that would normally be there (unless Germany felt strongly enough to sacrifice navy specifically to null that bonus–possibly a good idea)
To sum it all up: I believe a high pressure G1 Barbarossa is a sound strategy. In my next game, I will use it with an idea to better position other Axis elements to take advantage of the pressure this tactic creates (for instance, leaving India without air begs for a J3 India crush–although bringing the US into the war early presents another variable).
I do not claim it will always result in a G5 Moscow invasion, but it jacks up German income almost immediately, keeps Russia from settling in, and puts a lot of pressure on Britain to come to the rescue.
If anyone is interested in taking the Allies against this, PM me, I’m excited to see if it will continually work.
So 10 total damage.
Forgotten ‘battle’: 1 inf. takes CMO
NC
-6 inf. to BUY
-4 inf., 2 art., 2 tanks (Japan) to KWA
-rest on map
PLACE
-nb in Hainan, IC in FIC, bombers in Japan
COLLECTS
9 + 40 = 49 IPCs
MOSCOW DAMAGE
Rolls: 1@6; Total Hits: 11@6: (4)+ 2
MOSCOW AA
Rolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 01@1: (3)