My opponent and I have played 8 or more times Axis wins all but 1 and it was because of an Axis gamble that left japan open so USA was able to land.
our games have gone much the same way:
Germany takes france, yugo and kills UK fleet
Japan attack turn 1 by round 4 has India round 5 or 6 money islands and round 7 china is gone. so head to russia with tanks from India factory & head to Hawaii with fleet to win 6/8 red cities in the Pacific.
or
Japan turn 3 attack and the whole thing takes longer due to the USA build up for 3 turns.
Germany & Italy just take what they can for 3 turns and hold on as the russians UK and USA send things their way while Japan takes everything