@Sean.C:
- Fly the Soviet fighters to both Egypt and to the UK carrier. Buy 1 carrier, 1 fighter and 1 submarine with the UK (30 IPC). Place it all on the UK fleet on SZ35. You’ll have 1 SS, 1 DD, 1 CA, 2 ACs and 4 FTRs.
Japan can attack with 1 BB, 1 AC, 1 DD, 6 FTRs and 1 BMR, 86% odds but that means spending most of its airforce and losing a carrier.
Well the sub only defends on a 1, and the japanese have 2 DD’s. But lets take this assumption. You couldn’t get the Australian Fleet there, and G1 should take out your SZ17 DD with the bomber from Germany. (70% odds of winning, 20% odds of them killing each other, so 90% chance of taking it out). Now you can also buy more naval units in UK2 before japan can attack SZ35, so perhaps a BB and a DD?
So you have 4 FTR’s, 2 AC’s, 1BB, 1CA, 1DD, 1SS for a defense of 30 VS an attacking fleet of 6 FTRS, 1 bomber, 2BB, 2AC, 1CA, 2DD, 1SS for an attack of 41. (99% chance of Japanese victory, 100% with LL dice)
Pretty sure your not going to keep the Indian Fleet. Anyway you look at it, any money spent on UK1-2 in SZ35 is going to end up on the bottom of the Ocean. The only way the starting SZ35 UK fleet lives is if it goes to the med.
Only 1 Japanese DD can reach SZ35.
OK, assuming Germany attacks the DD on SZ17 with the bomber (and loses it, since it’s 43% odds for that to happen - check your calcs), then UK attacks SZ37 for 1 round of combat and pulls everything back to India. On average that gets 1 hit to the Japanese battleship and another hit for the carrier, which removes 2 fighters from the Japanese attack on SZ35 on J1. If Japan chooses to take down a fighter instead, then continue the attack, if you have average losses (1 sub and 1 cruiser hit on defending fire) but ALWAYS retreat when the carrier dies, if possible.
If the Japanese carrier on SZ37 is sunk then the SZ35 battle becomes:
1 BB, 1 DD, 4 FTRs, 1 BMR vs 2 ACs, 1 CA, 1 SS, 4 FTRs…. or 57% for defenders
Of course, this is a HUGE gamble but if it pays off… Japan is out of the Pacific really soon, since that UK fleet will also have 2 transports in range of East Indies/Borneo.