@Cornwallis I agree that UK 1, 2 and 3 are rough, if you are lucky the malta fighter at least takes out the german bomber, and you will most likely not get the malta IPC on UK2. However, i feel like investing in navy on UK 1 is still the best play, you have to at least try to get control of the malta zone, and every IPC the axis spend on navy is less boots on the ground, losing navy units hurts the axis more than the allies i feel like.
Lets say on UK1 you buy a battleship and 2 destroyers in gibraltar and put down a sea mine in the deployement zone + a sea mine in the malta convoy zone, that leaves 15 IPC for ground reinforcements for the UK, should be fine right? You could buy 3 tanks defending at 5 for example. If germany didnt clear the seamine on GER1 that makes for 2 mines, 2 destroyers and a battleship in gibraltar. Yes GER could buy 3 subs GER2 but that leaves them with only 7 IPC for land reinforcements, they probably need supply so -3, leaving them with 4 or 7 if they dont buy supply, thats not that much. The battle they could take vs the royal navy at gibraltar does not seem in germany’s favor to me, they could probably get some hits but i think the chances of wiping it seem unlikely (I have not calculated the odds so correct me if im wrong).
I think you should try to hold benghazi until UK2, putting every available unit on it UK1 without giving up tobruk for free and slowing down the axis by another turn. UK2 you still get 33 IPC’s and can then retreat to tobruk. With these IPC’s you can reinforce your navy at Gibraltar or buy full land units + landmines. If you put down another sea mine in the malta zone and buy a fighter you can merge your eastern starting navy (Battleship, destoyer + the sub from malta) with the remainder of the gibraltar fleet in the malta convoy zone and deploy the fighter + 3 supply there.
Again, i agree that the axis can still try to fight this fleet, but it is likely to be costly and take multiple rounds so the supply could get out. Its not guaranteed ofcourse, dice could mess up everything for either side but id say the UK has a pretty good chance of getting malta supplied for UK3. Even if the axis throw everything they have at you losing their navy and air units is very costly, especially for Italy. And if they use their planes for fighting your fleet they cant use them on land, also if they lose too much they are leaving their convoy zones unprotected. Making them prime targets for your fleet in case it survives
And yes holding Cairo is still difficult, but if the axis spend everything replenishing their navy and airforce they probably wont be taking it before round 7. (Again the dice could have something to say about it but there is nothing you can do against that)
I try to buy at least 1 matilda and landmines every round so by turn 5/6 you can have a nice stack of tanks protected by mines.
The first few games i only played axis and they seemed way too strong, but the more i play the more balanced the game seems to get. And the most difficult axis games were the ones where the allies controlled the seas/malta convoy zone.
All of this is just my experience however, ive said it before but ill say it again, dice can have a major impact on all of this. But i suggest you give it a try sometime, i feel like the chances of surviving unit round 7 are pretty good this way.