Posts made by Heckler409

hrm, so I guess I would have to readjust the values and run it through the formula, and that would be…

Attacking units:
Soldiers: 16.6% / 10= .166 x 2 Soldiers = .332
Tanks: 50% / 10= .5 x 1 tank = .5
Fighters: 50% * 83.3% = 41.6% / 10 = .416 x 3 Fighters =  1.248
Total Attack Value (TAV)= 4.16

Defending Units:
AA’s = Already Formulated inside the Attacker’s Planes
Soldiers: 33.3% / 10= .333 x 1 soldier = .333
Tanks: 50% / 10 = .5 x 3 tanks = 1.5
Fighters: 66.6% / 10 = .666 x 1 fighter= .666
Total Defense Value (TDV)= 2.499

4.16/6.659= .624*10= 62.4%

So then the attacker would have a 62.4% chance and the defender would have a 37.6% chance?  I guess that sounds about right then.  Hrm, I was so sure I had it but that does look like it would be correct.  Thanks for the heads up ;)

Hello,

I decided to make an odd’s calculator to determine on a 100% scale who[attacker, defender] has what odds.  I found this post and dug through the info a bit.  Interesting stuff.  I think most people are taking different routes to attempt the same effect.

I have some idea on how I want to go about doing this but I’m not sure if it is giving the true odds.  I racked my brains last night to come up with some form of an algebra formula to determine the odds.  I started simple and worked my way up to AA vs Fighters, this is what I’ve come up with.

Dice:

Odds on rolling a 1 or less:
16.6%
Odds on rolling a 2 or less:
33.3%
Odds on rolling a 3 or less:
50%
Odds on rolling a 4 or less:
66.6%
Odds on rolling a 5 or less:
83.3%

So we have the first variable for the formula which would obviously correspond to the attacking unit or defending unit.  So here are the other variables that I’ve thought of.

Attacker:
How many attacking units[Atk]
the reason for this number is so you can determine now many hits you can take before a loss
Odds on rolls [Atk]
Determines the odds of a hit all around for different units
How many first strike attacking units [Atk]
If I’m thinking correctly, the odd’s of this unit’s hit would come right off the top of the corresponding unit.
How many defending units [Def]
This would determine how many hits the defender could take before a loss
Odds on rolls [Def]
this would determine the odds on each unit types odds of hitting
How many first strike defending units[Def]
If I’m thinking correctly, the odd’s of this unit’s hit would come right off the top of the corresponding unit.

So for an easy example, to test out the theory we could use this setup:

Attacker:

2 Soldiers
1 tank
3 Planes

Defender:
1 AA
1 Soldier
3 Tanks
1 Plane

Beginning the battle the AA would have a shot at taking the planes out of the equation.  So I think we need to look at that area first.

1 plane has a 50% chance of scoring a hit.  Fighters attack on a 3.  We have 3 attacking planes, which have the combined chance of 50%.  So adding planes does not effect the chance, this is why I think this.

Knock the decimal over two spots and you get .05, add that three times and you get 1.5, divide that by the number of units and you get 50%.  The reason for returning to 50% is that by adding more planes, your adding the chance of a hit plus the chance of a miss.  So 1 plane’s odds is the same as 3 planes odds @ 50%.  So it’s safe to say that 1/2 your planes will hit by the odds.

The AA unit defends by attacking each fighter separately, in effect we’ll only be looking at one because one odd is the same as 3 right?  The AA unit defends on a 1 [16.6%] chance.  This is where I could be wrong, but I think that you would take the AA’s odds off the fighters odds.  So with an AA defending, your planes have the combined chance of 33.4%.  The reason for this is because that AA would take the fighter out of the equation, by subtracting the AA’s chance off of the fighters chance we would get the true chance of that fighter, thus all of the fighters chances because the AA effects them all.

Now if there where a bomber then you would do this separate from the fighters.  Bombers attack on a 4 [66.6%], having the AA unit defending [16.6%] then the bomber would have the odds of [50%].  You would calculate this separate because the bomber attacks on a different number.

So now we come to this conclusion:

Attacker:

2 Soldiers (attack on 1 [16.6%])
1 tank (attack on 3 [50%])
3 Planes (attack on 3 [50%]) coupled with the AA’s odds gives us a 33.3%

Defender:
1 AA (attack on a 1[16.6%]) Effecting Air units only and it is already calculated
1 Soldier (Defends on a 2 [33.3%])
3 Tanks (Defends on a 3 [50%])
1 Plane (Defends on a 4 [66.6%])

This is where I’m kind of stuck, I think what we would do now that we’ve figured out all the ending chances is turn those percentages into numbers by moving the decimal over two spaces or dividing the percent number by 10. So we would add all attacking numbers first.

Attacking units:
Soldiers: 16.6% / 10= .166 x 2 Soldiers = .332
Tanks: 50% / 10= .5 x 1 tank = .5
Fighters: 50% - 16.6% = 33.3% / 10 = .333 x 3 Fighters =  .999
Total Attack Value (TAV)= 1.831

Defending Units:
AA’s = Already Formulated inside the Attacker’s Planes
Soldiers: 33.3% / 10= .333 x 1 soldier = .333
Tanks: 50% / 10 = .5 x 3 tanks = 1.5
Fighters: 66.6% / 10 = .666 x 1 fighter= .666

Total Def Value(TDV)= 2.499

Now add the two total values to get the dividing number for the percentage chance of victory. So this is our final formula:

[TAV/(TAV+TDV)]*10= attackers chance of success.

1.831/4.33= .422*10= 42.2%

This gives the attacker a 42.2% chance of a victory and the defender a 57.8% chance of victory.

I think this is right, but I thought I would add this in so someone could dig through and tell me if my logic for the formula is correct.

You have to remember that this is a beginning phase only calculation, you would need to redo the calculation for every complete turn.  So the defender would roll for each plane, then attacker would roll for all units left, then defender would roll for his units.  Then at the “attack or retreat phase” you would recalculate the odds to determine the new odds of success with the remaining units attacking and defending.

Now I’m cranking my brain to figure out the first strike bombarding stuff for battleships.  Because it would only be used one time, this could be somewhat difficult to get a true chance of success.  It might be easier for you not to even add the bombard into the equation, so that you can use it as a “bonus” or undefined variable.

Subs are easier, they’re basically the same as the AA units in that formula.  The only difference is if there is an enemy destroyer present, then you would calculate them as a normal unit, not a first strike unit.

Battleships add to the total defense value due to having the ability of taking 2 hits.  This adds a dimension to the equation that I have yet to dig into.  The number of units is a variable that you could call defense that both attackers and defenders have.  I need to work that into the equation somewhere and perhaps cross calculate with the possible attack values.

I think when this is all said and done, the calculator would give you a percent chance of success and the number of turns it would take to win.  You would have to recalculate every full turn like I said earlyer and that would change your chances every full turn. That would give you a way of determining whether or not to retreat units that can retreat.

So for example, if your defending and your chance of success drops after the first round to 30%, then it would probably be a good idea to retreat your plane(s) and sub(s).  Or if your a horrible gambler like myself, continue with your low odds lol.

I would appreciate any feedback on this negative or positive, I’m curious as hell whether or not this is correct.  Yeah, curiosity killed the cat, it’s probably going to kill me too lol.

Well, my attempt at a US landing succeeded only to be lost to a simple counter attack.  A couple mis calculations had me in even a worse spot.

Turns out, Russia[Moscow] held against 2 large German attacks and an attack from Japan right after the second German attack.  I really didn’t think they where worth much.  Looks like Russia is going to take Europe with some interference from the UK and US.  I never thought that would happen… cool game.

Yeah, I should have just looked at the attack/defend board, I think it would have cleared up a few things.

I need some strategy suggestions here.  I’m the allies and my two buds took the Axis.  We stopped at the end of Turn 2, now beginning on Turn 3 tonight.

I lost caucus and I’m considering pulling back Russia’s whole front line to Moscow just to defend it.

Africa is wide open with only UK 1 soldier, 1 fighter no production doodad.  Lost India to Japan.

I’m up and ready for an assault in the Atlantic with, US 4 transports, 2 battleships, 2 destroyers.  I’ve also got 1 bomber, 1 fighter in the UK.  Transports have 4 soldiers, 3 tanks, 1 artillery.

Germany has a ton of tanks and soldiers on the Russian front line and in Caucus.  They have 1 fighter, 1 AA in "western Europe.  That’s where I’m attempting to land. They have 1 battleship and 1 transport near Caucus.

Germany is sitting with 54 ICP’s so after Russia pulls back into Moscow, I really don’t know what he will buy.

Should I go ahead and Launch an assault there[W Europe] or should I wait and build up a larger force?  Should I focus on getting the US into Africa Instead of Europe?

wow… I’ve completely missed quite a few important bits of information here.  I didn’t think the transport could ever fire.  Ok, I think I have enough info here to get a game going.  Thanks for taking the time and answering my questions.

I think I understand it now.

So basically, unless Russia is completely wiped off the map, anytime an allied force takes back the capitol, all previously owned “reddish brown” territories that allies control will revert back to Russia.  If Russia is wiped off the map, and an allied force takes the capitol, then that allied force gets to keep that capitol and any other piece of land it takes along the way.

I’m sorry, I need to add another question in here.  Can the aircraft carrier fire on it’s own or is it like the transport?

I was way off on the liberated city part.  I was under the impression that when Germany took Moscow, the UK and USA could produce units right there(in Moscow).  I guess the OOB was referring to the ability to move allied units into previously owned Russian space and if they took that piece of land, they could produce units on it as long as they either build a production doodad or one was previously on it.  I think I got this now, thanks.

On bids, I think I can see why The axis is at a disadvantage.  I think it’ll be some time before I even offer a bid to the other player, I need some more playing time.

Disregard that third question, I looked into the “addons” and saw that they were separate games.

Thanks for the info, it clears quite a few things up.

We where trying to play the minor victory but none of us really knew what we were doing.  We almost just played the whole game like risk but with the cost and traits of the different units.  None of us wanted to do that so we attempted to give the whole game a go, with no faction specific advantages.  I would love to give that a try when we get this game down.

I thought I had the most up to date version of the game, I went to “Avalon hill games” and downloaded a 2004 pdf.  It looks the same as the OOB I have.  I should probably go dig around for this LHTR version.

I did quite a bit of digging here in these forums and saw some of the typos posted up.  Some of them seem like common sense, others have quite a different meaning.  Cool game none the less.

Whats the specifics on Liberating Capitals?  My bud was playing Germany, and thought that it would be tremendously hard to take Russia if he took the capitol and I pumped out units from the UK and USA in Moscow every turn.  My understanding was that Russia wouldn’t collect any money with that one capitol being under German control and that it would be too expensive to continue to pump out units.  Also, I would guess that once all of the Russian territory was under German control, Russia just wouldn’t exist and then the UK and USA couldn’t produce units in Moscow.  I guess what I’m looking for here is an explanation of how this is balanced.

I keep seeing something about bidding.  I think I understand the concept but which one of the two sides is at the disadvantage?  Or is it just a perception(ie, I like the allies and so does my bud, I’ll give my bud an extra 9 dollars to play axis).

So whats the deal with these addons battle of the bulge and the Pacific?  Do they add to the vanilla game or are they separate all together?  Which ones are funner to play?

Ok, that makes sense.  Thanks for the speedy replies.  I think this game is pretty fun, just takes allot of time to finish it.  Hopefully we’ll get the hang of it soon.

Hello,

I just bought the game Axis and Allies revised.  I had some friends come over and we tried to play a game within 4 hours lol.  Didn’t happen, we spent most of the time arguing over little discrepancies  and digging through the rule book.  We didn’t even complete a whole turn(USSR, Germany, UK, Japan, US).

Anyway, I’m wondering how exactly land and sea units interact with enemy air units.  The rule book doesn’t seem to clarify how they interact.  Realistically speaking, a soldier and tank couldn’t engage a plane, but if thats how this works then one plane could destroy 30 infantry and 30 tanks in one engagement.  The player with the plane would just keep rolling the die until they’re all gone.

Or does it work like the plane gets to roll one attack die, then combat ends and the plane has to find a landing zone etc?

Another question I have is how the submerged subs work.  Can they only submerge during the “retreat or attack phase”?  Or can you keep a sub submerged and move it around the board?