@Fleetwood:
I’m not certain on game balance having only played two decent length games. Germany is weaker in Africa, Allies are weaker in the Atlantic. Germany is also weaker in Europe because they’ll lose a lot more fighters as compared to Revised. Russia attacks Ukraine r1. Germany’s down to 5 fighters. Germany loses a sub and fighter against the British Battleship. Over half the time, Germany loses a fighter against the cruiser. Maybe the dice take a dump on Germany and they have to lose a fighter to close the Suez Canal. It would be typical to see Germany down to just 3 fighters and a bomber by the end of their turn.
Losing the Battleship is probably a lesser evil than Russia having to take Norway and potentially sacrificing a fighter. My PBEM opponent has been experimenting with German bomber buys and he concluded that Germany needed to buy 2 bombers and lose only one fighter in their G1 attacks to prevent the Allies from merging in z8. Yes, this is accounting for the escaping Baltic subs. Unless the Germans build bombers, the Allies can take z8. If the Germans do build bombers, then the British retreat their Canadian transport to US waters, save their money and build fleet next turn and Germany is short on infantry against the Soviets.
Well, I cannot tell, neither, having played also only two games. And I am still quite new so you must be much more experienced player. But in most games I have played or tested in Triple A, Germany was not under four figs and a bomber R1. As you say “Maybe the dice take a dump on Germany”, but Maybe it will not. So typically, when G is doing Ukraine, British BB, AE, and the SZ 13 cruiser, one of the battles goes really bad. You are less then 50 % losing a fig against the BB (precisely 4/9th, unless the russian sub hits), you have definitely less then 25 % losing the fig at AE, you have less then 10 % losing the one at ukr (only a fanatic would push the attack if it does not look well after the first round of rolls), and you have just 50 % losing the one against cr in SZ 13. This I think gives you definitey more then 50 % germany is with 4 figs after R1, but i have not done the precise maths.
I cannot see Germany weaker in Africa either. Is it the russian black sea sub R1 or the Bomber and fighter UK R1 gamble on the batlleship that makes them weaker or what? Let us not forget that both moves are not without a price in that they leave Japan virtually uncontested from R1 which may prove lethal R7 in Moscow.
Now, if I would buy one Bmb, 3arm, 4tnk R1, and atack the SZ 8 with 3figs, 2 bmbs and 2 subs R2 if the allies really dare to set up there, I would be very happy Germany player indeed. Against AC, dd, cr and 2 figs (assuming UK has not lost one sinking my dd) i would have 2 subs, 3 figs and a bmb and it gives me 94 % win, with 3,26 units left (if i have only 2figs and 2 bmbs as you suggest, it gives me 76 % a 2 units alive). In case you have build AC and 2DD UK R1, the math is 78%, 2,25 units with 3fig/ 50% 1,05 units left with 2figs.
Since I would keep building a bomb or a fig a round, the danger would be omnipresent, while allies have lost 100+ IPCs worth of units on the sea and i would be in a position of sinking them once again while japan would be expanding fast, germany would be gaining in africa and keeping balance in the east front with ease.
With Allies not being able to set their foot on European soil before R4-5 and threaten Germany itself effectively before R8-9, with Germany being able to sacrifice their planes for the more dangerous of the convoys for at least one more time and with Japan taking on Moscow R7 with about 18 tanks lots of planes and enough infantry to have a good skew, i cannot really see succesful KGF without extremely lucky dice rolls.
It seems to me that not giving the trannies any minimal defensive power (like 3 or less from two dice rolls) was really a mistake that makes it almost impossible for the allies to set up the convoys in time against a skillful axis player.