Wow, ask and you shall receive! Thanks, everyone.
OK, last night with limited time I mocked up round 1. I did indeed end up with a board looking much like Nix’s heading into SU2, except I may have made a mistake by leaving 3inf in Belo, because E.Eur has only 4inf. Egypt went so well the Germans lost only 1inf, so there’s 1inf 2arm there plus 1inf 1art 1F in Libya. Africa will fall quickly. I like to park the bomber back in Germany.
Here are the problem areas: after SU2 the Russians hold: W.Rus 6inf, 2art, 4arm, 2F(UK) amd Cauc 5inf, 1art, 2F, Ukraine 6inf, Belo 2inf, plus 5inf reserve in Russia and 2inf in Kaz, so their lines are not exactly paper thin. That means SU has 24inf 3art 4arm 2F + 2F(UK) on or near the front, whereas the Germans have 14inf 1art 5 arm 2F(AC) between E.Eur/Ger/Balk/SZ5. (5 extra inf or 3arm instead of the AC would come in handy.) UK1 I lost 4 IPCs to sbr, so 38 IPCs to 28 for SU is not a huge lead; even with extra IPCs, it will take several turns to match the numbers of the SU, let alone gain the advantage. US2 threatens sbr as well.
The navy looks great in SZ5 with 1AC 2sub 1DD 1tr, and that will let me funnel 2 extra ground units per turn into Karel, so I see the benefit there. However, after R2 SZ8 has: UK 1BB 3tr 1AC w/ US 2F, US 2tr 1DD, SU 1sub. Even with 3F in W.Eur and 1bom, I would be hard-pressed to attack that on G2 – Allies can give up 1DD 1sub 1 hit on BB before I kill anything meaningful, whereas I would probably lose several F. By the time I would move out of SZ5 within range of SZ8, I assume the Allies will have even more strength. I guess the point is to stall the Allies’ navies, at least temporarily, to buy time for Japan, but I will probably lose airpower I cannot afford to replace.
US2 could land in Africa or Norway, with a second wave already waiting in E.US. UK2 threatens Norway with 4inf 1art 1arm, so if I take Karel in force I’ll be surrounded. Not to mention W.Eur may need reinforcements. As far as the argument I’ve heard that UK must worry about the Kreigsmarine, I wonder why; UK will build at least 4inf 1art 1arm each turn anyway for its transports and the US may park its units there as a staging ground, so I see no actual threat of SeaLion. Add to that the 8IPC fewer ground units for each transport Germany would build, and SU only grows stronger.
I understand this plan requires an aggressive Japan to move against SU. Unfortunately, UK sunk the Kwang transport and the SZ45 sub and holds India with 4inf 1F. Of course J1 took China and sunk the US at Pearl, but only 2 ground units could then be moved onto Asia during NC. It will take time for Japan to mount a sizable threat from the east.
I think I see why I need to learn about the bid system! :-D