Nice write-up Putzky.
- with the European Axis in an immediate defensive position (or alternatively, a futile aggressive position moving East to Moscow), Japan will not have the space it needs to be able to stay in control of the Pacific to get the 6 victory cities for the win
sounds good in theory, but actually the hardest Axis strategy to beat is when they go for the Eurasia win and don’t worry about VCs. Even if Italy is throttled in the Med by UK/USA it’s very difficult for Allies to save Moscow and simultaneously prevent Japan from securing the Pacific win. Even if the Allies can save Moscow, the Axis can besiege Moscow and be in a good position to win the economic war.
I favor J1 and usually play it, though I admit J2 certainly gives J1 a run for its money. It’s true a J1 involves some moderate risk at Yunnan (as well as sz 37, Hunan, and Philippines) in a dice game.
If I recall, YG was once a J1 skeptic (like you) but changed his view when he tried it out a few times.
When considering the matter from an IPC perspective (and that is not the only perspective, but a useful one), make sure you are taking into account all of the Allied units that are destroyed Turn 1. British BB, Ami dd/ss, 2 inf fig in Phi. The naval units get away if you don’t attack J1. Also take into account the +7 from Borneo and Kwangtung and the corresponding -7 on the UK turn. Think of the advantage of securing Phi, Bor, Fic, and Kwa (the last 2 being good IC spots) on J1. Now your transports are freed up to secure more strategic targets on the next turn. If UK or Anzac want islands, then they’ll have to sacrifice transports.
I did all the math one time and I found J1 and J2 very close to even from an IPC perspective.
So the decision comes down to the strategic advantages of J1 compared to the strategic disadvantages of USA entry into the Battle of the Atlantic. If the J1 is executed correctly, then Japan is on their way to a quick Pacific victory, and USA will have no choice but to go 80%+ Pacific to turn the tide. Which means the USA does not have the resources to threaten Germany/Italy.
Well said sir.