@axis-dominion Of the 3 wins I’ve had against you, 2 were based on G1 scramble decisions. The other one in 2020, you were allies and the scramble was pretty disastrous (although moreso in 111). So I have only had one win not determined by the dice.
I’m sure these dice are very much on the margin of possible outcomes. So a small fraction of 1% I’m sure. The reverse (the British get diced this badly) is, probably a relatively more likely outcome, but still a rare one.
In most cases though the outcome will be closer to the average, that the British lose their fleet and air and the Germans lose their subs and 3-4 air. And that trade is definitely worth it. Even taking 2 german air is good enough (even though that is a worse TUV outcome than if I don’t scramble).
I thought it was worth walking through how I’m thinking about this. And maybe that speaks to what are some other possible options for the axis are that don’t simply ignore 111 (or 110).
I go for it for the above reason that the likely outcome is a trade for air. But also knowing that I have a 10% chance of winning a game decisive battle (and that this battle can be pyhrric for the axis even in victory). So the odds of turning the game dramatically in my favour on this battle are somewhat higher than 10%. So I have a small chance of a game deciding disaster, a not insignificant chance of winning the game outright and a likely outcome of trading my air for 2-4 German air.
Also since I know 111 is likely one you are going to retreat from before I lose that fig, I should have at least one UK fig still alive if 110 goes more poorly. In situations where I think you are fighting to the end in 111, I have to think seriously about whether I can handle losing all 4 air.
Had the Battleship been sacrificed and gone to 110 instead of a sub, I would have to rethink this since it might absorb the hits from my air and save your air. Or had you not done 106, you could have added a sub to 111 and a fighter to 110, and I probably don’t go for it either. The odds are worse, the TUV outcome is comparable to not scrambling, and so the chances of you getting through this with the loss of only 1 or 2 air are much higher.
I scrambled last time too with the G1 transport build. It wasn’t nearly these dice but it wasn’t a bad result for the allies. I lost all 4 air but was able to take out 5 of yours (We both had phenomenal 111 roles). Nonetheless, had you gone the same route, I was going to think about that again since I thought losing that air made my UK1 decisions more difficult.
Another reason to do it though is to force the Germans to play more conservatively and let me save the fleet. If my opponents know that I will and so that becomes information that shapes their play in future games.
I agree to that the allied focus on the atlantic bid limits the game. But I don’t think htere is anywhere else to go unless one knows that their opponent favours a J1 DOW. The atlantic is the only place where one can be sure that the bid is relevant round 1.
