Best posts made by farmboy

@martin All good. I have two other games going and a busy week so I am in no rush. Hope its a good trip.

@martin Given where the game is at (Germany is quite strong but Japan is starting to crack) you will need to get Moscow. But I decided to conserve income this turn since it is cheaper for me to save my cash now and build 10 units next turn rather than pay for bombing damage twice and build 5 units each turn.

@martin yeah. You took some risks but had some good dice. One thing to note though is that I wouldn’t tilt the carrier but the battleship. It doesn’t matter too much I think, but it means that the anzac air stay on the US carrier when it moves. I’ll adjust that on the US turn.

TripleA Turn Summary: UK_Pacific round 15

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition

Game History

Round: 15

    Purchase Units - Americans
        Americans buy 1 artillery, 2 carriers, 3 fighters, 4 infantry and 1 submarine; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Americans
        2 infantry moved from Gibraltar to 92 Sea Zone
        3 infantry moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Holland Belgium
        6 infantry moved from Gibraltar to 92 Sea Zone
        6 infantry and 3 transports moved from 92 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
        6 infantry moved from 110 Sea Zone to Holland Belgium
        4 fighters moved from Southern France to Holland Belgium
        1 fighter moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Holland Belgium
        1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Southern France to Holland Belgium
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 92 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 110 Sea Zone to Holland Belgium

    Combat - Americans
        Battle in Holland Belgium
            Americans attack with 1 armour, 5 fighters, 11 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
            Italians defend with 1 infantry
                Americans roll dice for 1 armour, 5 fighters, 11 infantry and 1 mech_infantry in Holland Belgium, round 2 : 2/18 hits, 5.00 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Italians lost in Holland Belgium
            Americans win, taking Holland Belgium from Germans with 1 armour, 5 fighters, 11 infantry and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Italians: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Americans
        1 fighter moved from Eastern United States to 110 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Gibraltar to Normandy Bordeaux
        1 fighter moved from Holland Belgium to Normandy Bordeaux
        1 fighter moved from Holland Belgium to 110 Sea Zone
        3 fighters moved from Holland Belgium to United Kingdom
        5 artilleries and 5 infantry moved from Southern France to Normandy Bordeaux
        2 transports moved from 91 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 92 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 92 Sea Zone to 97 Sea Zone
        5 fighters moved from Northwest Persia to Bryansk
        1 bomber moved from Northwest Persia to Novgorod
        1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Queensland to 54 Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 1 battleship, 10 carriers, 3 cruisers, 2 destroyers, 17 fighters, 3 infantry, 13 submarines, 1 tactical_bomber and 2 transports moved from 54 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from 33 Sea Zone to Caroline Islands
        3 submarines moved from 26 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 26 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from Hawaiian Islands to 33 Sea Zone
        1 carrier and 1 fighter moved from 30 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from Western United States to 10 Sea Zone
        1 carrier, 1 destroyer, 2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 10 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 26 Sea Zone to Hawaiian Islands
        1 fighter moved from Western United States to Wake Island
        1 fighter moved from Western United States to Wake Island
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Manchuria to Korea

    Place Units - Americans
        1 carrier placed in 110 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry placed in Normandy Bordeaux
        3 infantry placed in Southern France
        1 fighter placed in Eastern United States
        1 carrier and 1 submarine placed in 10 Sea Zone
        2 fighters placed in Western United States

    Turn Complete - Americans
        Americans collect 60 PUs; end with 60 PUs
        Objective Americans 1 Homeland: Americans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 70 PUs
        Objective Americans 3 Defense Obligations: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 75 PUs
        Objective Americans 2 Outer Territories: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 80 PUs

    Purchase Units - Chinese
        Trigger Chinese Artillery Supplies: Chinese has their production frontier changed to: productionChinese_Burma_Road_Open
        Chinese buy 10 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Chinese

    Non Combat Move - Chinese
        3 artilleries and 24 infantry moved from Manchuria to Jehol
        7 artilleries, 1 fighter and 47 infantry moved from Yunnan to Burma
        1 infantry moved from Kweichow to Yunnan

    Place Units - Chinese
        10 infantry placed in Yunnan

    Turn Complete - Chinese
        Chinese collect 23 PUs; end with 23 PUs
        Objective Chinese 1 Burma Road: Chinese met a national objective for an additional 6 PUs; end with 29 PUs

    Purchase Units - British
        British repair damage of 4x factory_minor; Remaining resources: 28 PUs; 
        British buy 1 artillery and 8 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Purchase Units - UK_Pacific
        UK_Pacific buy 2 armour and 1 fighter; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - British
        1 mech_infantry moved from Rhodesia to Anglo Egyptian Sudan
              British take Anglo Egyptian Sudan from Germans
        1 artillery moved from Yunnan to French Indo China
        9 infantry moved from Yunnan to French Indo China
        1 infantry moved from Yunnan to French Indo China

    Combat - British
        Battle in French Indo China
            British attack with 1 artillery and 10 infantry
            Japanese defend with 1 airfield, 1 factory_minor, 1 fighter, 1 harbour and 3 infantry
                British roll dice for 1 artillery and 10 infantry in French Indo China, round 2 : 4/11 hits, 2.17 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 fighter and 3 infantry in French Indo China, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the British lost in French Indo China
                3 infantry owned by the Japanese and 1 fighter owned by the Japanese lost in French Indo China
            British win, taking French Indo China from Japanese with 1 artillery and 8 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 13
            Casualties for British: 2 infantry
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 fighter and 3 infantry

    Non Combat Move - British
        1 aaGun moved from Yunnan to French Indo China
        9 infantry moved from Yunnan to Burma
        3 infantry moved from India to Burma
        1 aaGun, 7 artilleries, 5 infantry and 6 mech_infantrys moved from Alexandria to Tobruk
        3 infantry moved from Algeria to Tunisia
        2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Algeria to 92 Sea Zone
        1 carrier, 1 destroyer, 2 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 3 transports moved from 92 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
        3 infantry moved from United Kingdom to 110 Sea Zone
        5 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from 110 Sea Zone to Holland Belgium
        2 aaGuns and 9 infantry moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Holland Belgium
        2 artilleries and 1 infantry moved from Southern France to Normandy Bordeaux
        1 fighter moved from United Kingdom to 110 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Gibraltar to 110 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Gibraltar to Southern France
        1 aaGun and 3 infantry moved from West India to India
        2 artilleries moved from Eastern Persia to West India
        1 mech_infantry moved from Persia to Eastern Persia
        1 mech_infantry moved from Northwest Persia to Eastern Persia
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Northwest Persia to West India
        9 infantry moved from Eastern Persia to West India
        1 bomber moved from Northwest Persia to Bryansk
        2 fighters moved from Northwest Persia to Bryansk
        2 fighters moved from Tobruk to Southern France
        1 destroyer moved from 123 Sea Zone to 109 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from Rhodesia to Belgian Congo
        2 infantry moved from Eastern Persia to West India
        3 infantry moved from Eastern Persia to Persia
        2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Northwest Persia to Bryansk
        1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Union of South Africa to Rhodesia
        3 mech_infantrys moved from Rhodesia to Tanganyika Territory

    Place Units - British
        1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in Persia
        3 infantry placed in Union of South Africa
        3 infantry placed in United Kingdom

    Turn Complete - British
        British collect 29 PUs; end with 29 PUs

    Place Units - UK_Pacific
        2 armour and 1 fighter placed in India

    Turn Complete - UK_Pacific
        UK_Pacific collect 18 PUs; end with 18 PUs
        Objective UK Pacific 2 Kwangtung And Malaya: UK_Pacific met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 23 PUs
        Some Units in India change ownership: 2 armour and 1 fighter

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans regular : -3.00
Japanese regular : 0.33
Germans regular : -0.33
British regular : 1.83

Savegame

@arthur-bomber-harris If Japan really needs to go for it, than that is the way to do it. And you should be able to save most if not all the air. But I’m still probably not going to do it, unless I’m convinced that this is a game deciding battle (and I don’t think it is). One reason is that the battle is evenly matched in the first round, and the odds of coming out of it knowing that you will win will be less than the odds of actually winning. So you will often have to commit to the second round likely without having significantly improved odds. And of course you forgo the safer attack on the battleship for a riskier one that might either fail or cause significant attrition. Its also a set back to trade Japanese land units in a loss given how relatively scarce they are.

I’m curious what you saw as your other mistakes Andrew. I gave you several battles on the mainland with odds of better than 90%. I did so thinking these were likely going to be pyrrhic. In that while you would almost certainly win, you always had to go all in and would lose scarce ground units and/or trade air for inf and so would ultimately be in a weaker position in relation to the US or the other stacks I had on the mainland. I don’t think you were ever in a position where you could likely take and hold India or Yunnan. But given the situation, maybe you had to go for one of these and hope the dice helped.

Things have become a bit of a blur now but I had some thoughts on how it might have gone differently. Until I grabbed the Caroline Islands you were really efficient at ferrying land units from japan to the mainland. But I think a mistake may have been not building 1-2 more factories early in the game to keep producing land units.

And in Europe, you traded away the Italian and German fleets very early. In the long run, they are not going to survive, but I think you would have been better off making me go for them. Its not always easy to get enough allied force to feel that one can safely do it, and as long as they are there, I have to worry more about the threats to Egypt, Gibraltar, London and my landing on Norway and I may have had to play a bit more conservatively as a result.

@oysteilo In this game, in round 5 I keep Yunnan stacked despite Andrew having about 90% odds. The reason is because in winning, on average, he loses half his air and all his ground units in South East Asia. Even if the roll is above average for him, its a heavy loss that he can’t afford if he wants to take India or keep the US fleet out.

In my experience, the allied player (including myself) has often retreated, because we get too nervous about odds like that and miss what the implications are for the game.

As the game goes on, I give him more options either in Yunnan, Burma, India, or Manchuria and Jehol. Sometimes the odds are closer to a 100% and the TUV exchange is closer to 0, but there is nothing he can go for which, even with a positive tuv exchange doesn’t actually put him a weaker position. He is either losing scarce land units, or trading air for inf and both benefit the allied position in the game.

I don’t know if that helps concretize it. And sorry this may not be anything new. Its been something I’ve come to what I think is a much better understanding of in the last few months and so I’ve been a bit excited about it

@oysteilo If the axis do start attacking Yunnan and I’m finding the cost of it higher than the benefit, I’m adding another fighter too. I haven’t done this move a lot (I htink this might be the second time) because I haven’t used this approach in BM. So right now I’m willing to play this with a bit more risk just because it strikes me as a high risk move for the axis.

And just to clarify the odds, when i give the axis 90% (or better) odds, the goal is to create situations where there was allied pressure somewhere else and, if he went for it, he would always have traded units that he was going to need elsewhere. The point is not only to rely on your opponent’s playing conservatively but to create conditions where in the context of the whole board, victories are pyrrhic. In the pacific the Japanese player often is relying on a tonne of air, but lacks ground troops, an outcome is that they often trade the land units they need to hold and take territory on the mainland, or lose air that give him the edge in those battles and help keep the US fleet on the outside.

@gamerman01 Andrew (X) over Farmboy (A+60) OOB https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/topic/40027/l23-2nd-ed-oob-andrewaagamer-x-vs-farmboy-allies-60-2

@farmboy I don’t like scrambling 97 and I knew it could go south and thought it had when I saw your roll. But I also feel I have to when you have 80% odds and the TUV exchange improves by 20. I don’t want to lose that German fig, but figure I would likely have lost more air if I had to attack after.

@gamerman01 I do appreciate that you had to do it and the lack of a bid at least made those harder choices than normal. It makes this a fun game as we are being forced to take some risks. You in making the attack and me in choosing to scramble.

@gamerman01 you will likely get a chance to help the Russians on G2

@JDOW a 4 bid is what we get when you have two players who prefer playing allies. I still feel I might regret taking axis but one sub was my cutoff for a bid here.

@gamerman01 All sounds fine to me. And I get that an OOL in advance is a favour to the attacking player. I don’t mind waiting. In this case I wasn’t asking for OOL in advance, just letting you know that I might need it once i rolled. I was assuming though that if I had a decent roll, that it was safer to assume a max D situation. I’ll be sure to ask if I think there is any uncertainty, and if I make that assumption in the future and I get it wrong, I’ll defer to you in how we correct that.

I suppose one could play where they try to soften the allies in Normandy but avoid taking it to keep it French. But that hadn’t occurred to me at that point. I just wanted to take it, avoid using air, and was annoyed that I didn’t have one more land unit in range.

@gamerman01 I believe JDow realizes that and was just making a little joke

@gamerman01 said in BM 23 Playoff Final Gamerman (L+4) vs Farmboy (X):

As tantalizing as a German fleet is, it is so important to get on top of Russia fast.

This is old school - buy as many ground first 3 rounds as you can, or Russia stuffs you.

Let’s see if I can remember how to deal with this - it’s been a long time! In other words, well played

Yeah. When I played you last, I was rusty with the axis (as like you I prefer playing allies) and I was letting your Western allies distract me to much. The axis have to be able to get past Bryansk before they face too much pressure on the West or they are done. So I tried to be a bit more aggressive against the British in G1 (which didn’t fully pay off) and then focus more on the soviets after.

I was having some issues too last week but it seems to have gotten better. They sometimes end up in your spam folder if you haven’t checked that. And I also know that Gmail can be a problem too.

@gamerman01 I appreciate the review here. There was some rough attrition for the axis in the early going to be sure but I didn’t think anything that should necessarily sink me. Maybe cumulatively it could, but your excellent play has been the larger issue. And now Bryansk should definitely even things out and give me some new life.

@gamerman01 one thing I was going to note also is that yes 111 was ugly for me. But I went in knowing that is sometimes a result. I don’t often play axis but when I do, I often am a bit more conservative in my G1 attacks, But thought against you I needed to take some risks and I paid the price.

And while I didn’t win 97, I wasn’t really expected to, and I think the allies lost more than they normally would there. So I don’t feel I can complain about the dice in those two battles. In any case, I got it back in Bryansk.

@gamerman01 haven’t been able to look yet so all good. Go ahead.