Semifinal
This round happened immediately following Round 3, which only about 2 hours for a break. This meant that everyone involved was utterly exhausted before even sitting down to play. My opponents were none other than this website’s own Dave Jensen and his partner Mike, so I was playing someone I actually know semi-personally. It made for an interesting, but blunder-filled match, as you will see below:
Side: Allies
Bid Die Roll: Won
Bid: Axis +0
Dave wanted Axis. I was hoping to get Axis +3 so I could show the strategy I used in round 1, but no luck.
J1:
Buy: CV/2 TT/INF
This team opened nearly identically to the previous two teams. For brevity, I am only going to highlight the differences in moves:
-A second FTR (From Japan) brought to Pearl, but they DID NOT bring a DD
-3 INF (Burma+FIC) + 2 FTR (FIC, Formosa) + BOMB (Japan) attacks Yunnan (Chinese FTR)
-Suiyuan not attacked (normally they try to hit all Chinese territories, but this team did not attack Suiyan).
-3 INF (Kiangsu) + FTR (Man.) attacks Hupeh.
In China, the rolls were average here. However, at sea, the Allies rolled high. Japan lost 1 Fighter in the Indian Ocean attack and another at Peal (although that one was an intentional loss because it flew in from Tokyo).
One interesting thing that was tried was that the Axis Team actually retreated from the Pearl Harbor attack after one round of combat (sparing 1 US Fighter). It was an attempt to save the Japanese Cruiser, but you will see later that this does not work.
Collects 34
R1
Buy: 2 INF/2 ART/2 TANK
I made the same play as the other two games where I was Allies. However, looking at the board state again, it might have been good to try pulling a Bomber and going for Manchuria, since the Chinese @ Suiyuan could have NCM’d forward to join whatever Soviet INF survived + place the free Chinese INF there as well. That would made made a very painful position for the Japanese to navigate. However, I will stress again that both teams were exhausted from 3 consecutive days of playing + a very early morning start, so big misses like this will come up often.
One such big mistake is that I completely forgot to NCM the Soviet Sub to join the British Battleship. Given how both sides rolled on the following battle (more on that during the German turn recap), this wound up causing problems for the Allies that cascaded all the way to the very end of the game. Very unfortunate.
We also found an issue with the board setup (USSR was missing a Tank that was supposed to be in Caucasus, I think there was a missing piece for Germany as well), which caused some delays. This was not the reason I missed the sub move though. It was just fatigue on my end.
Luck-wise, E. Ukr. went well. Belo was about average.
Collects 26
G1
Buy: CV/TT/4 INF/ART
It was yet another Carrier opening. This time however, the Axis Team was better prepared, making sure to also put the 2 INF from Finland in Norway to deter any attempt by UK at killing off the German air units.
My mistake with the Russian sub placement cost me terribly here, as the Axis Team only got 3 hits on the first round of combat (1 from Subs, 2 from air, so the Soviet sub could have soaked a hit). Both British units hit during the same first round of combat, meaning the German subs were dead. Had I not neglected the Soviet sub, my Battleship would have had one more chance to shoot down a British Air unit (probably a Fighter), which could have fundamentally changed the course of the game (basically, without the extra Fighter, UK has a chance at punching through Norway and getting the Bomber during B1, which would deny net 2 air units to Germany for the G2 fleet battle, meaning UK would have a faster timeline to getting naval supremacy in Europe and busting the Carriers).
So all-in-all, very bad mistake from me with the Soviets. A near-fatal one, as you will see in the coming turns.
Elsewhere, luck was mostly average, but the Germans tried a strafe against Belorussia that has absolutely awful luck. Something like 1 hit on the attackers’ roll Vs. ~4-5 hits on the defenders’ roll. Very bad luck for the Axis Team that screwed up their momentum Vs. USSR for a fair amount of the game.
With their NCM/placement, Germany primes itself for a potential Sealion if the Allies get too complacent, much like the previous opponent.
Collects 37
B1
Buy: CV/2 DD, banks 1 IPC
Despite the poor odds, I made an attempt at strafing Norway anyway. My hope was that the Axis Team would take the Bomber as a loss during the first round of combat, which would let me just retreat the air units and let the land units (if any) die (I would have also sacrificed the UK Bomber here if needed).
Ultimately, neither side got what they wanted. The Axis Team only took INF as casualties, but only got 2 hits on defense, so all of UK’s air units survived the battle.
Collects 31, ends on 32
I1
Buy: TT/INF
Like with the other Axis players who spent I1 building a TT, Italy is forced to play slow here and keep its fleet stationary. This slows their momentum but given how the rest of the game played out it, they will end up getting a lot of mileage out of this second transport.
Collects 12
A1
Buy: 2 CV/1 FTR
The same buys/moves I did for the rest of the tournament. Mostly similar to last round as the E. US forces need to step up to block Sealion.
The only notable difference, of course, is that I sent 1 SUB + air support to kill the stray Japanese Cruiser from J1. That unforced error was probably just due to player fatigue.
China tried taking 4 INF Vs. 2 INF @ Hupeh (a 77% exchange), but I had to retreat after China missed the first roll and Japan got a hit. This would cause problems for China in the short term due to the large number of Japanese land units on the board (although it wasn’t nearly as bad for China as most of game 3 was).
Collects 38
J2
Buy: FTR/3 TANK/3 INF
The buy is so land-heavy because the Axis Team actively believed the US Air Stack (1 FTR/3 BOMB) in E. Canada was a bluff, and that it was actually meant to fly east and counterattack whatever German Navy was left in SZ6 (Scappa Flow) in the hypothetical where Germany attacks into the Royal Navy and wins.
Japan sent 2 Fighters to go kill the UK Africa fleet with no Battleship to escort. I got a lucky hit so that marked 3 dead Japanese Fighters since the start of the game, a very good amount of luck for the Allies that should have made America’s job much easier. The other Fighter has to NCM to Egypt and slowly make its way back to the Pacific later.
That aside, the rest of the turn was mostly standard. Japan killed the American sub from A1 and made major progress in China. The entire IJN (except the 1 Destroyer who killed the American Sub) piles into SZ36 (SEA) to prepare for a J3 India takedown.
Collects 36
R2
Buy: 2 TANK/4 INF/ART
Same buy as the other games.
This time, I made sure to move the Soviet sub to join the main UK Navy.
I considered trying to take Belorussia, since it was actually relatively lightly defended at this point, but faced with 2 German Transports + all the air + the small German stack in Baltic States (the one that did the botched strafe on Belo during G1), I was too afraid of being counterattacked. In hindsight, it may have been better to force the issue, since if Germany attacked the Soviets at Leningrad, they wouldn’t have been able to hit the Royal Navy, which would have given me enough time to build up to a point where Germany couldn’t kill it anymore.
However, in the game, I moved my stack back to E. Ukr. and took aggressive trades in E. Pol. and Ukr. Hoping to lull the Germans into another game where they spend too much money Vs. UK’s navy and eventually get overwhelmed by the Red Army.
I also moved up the Siberians as usual, and sent my Bomber + 2 INF into China to get a territory back for China.
Collects 27
G2
Buy: CV/INF/2 ART/2 TANK, banks 2 IPC
Germany blasts the British fleet (at the cost of a DD/SUB/FTR), but otherwise plays passively, stacking up E. Poland and slowly walking forward in Africa. 4 more land units (3 from Norway, 1 from Germany) are funneled into Karelia to lock down the territory.
Collects 35, ends on 37
B2
Buy: 4 DD
I trade Norway and unite the India/TJ stacks @ Persia to dodge all possible attacks. The British Fighters from the Pacific half of the board are also ready to go in E. Ukr. in case an opportunity to attack or land on a newly built Carrier comes up.
Collects 32
I2
Buy: INF/ART/TANK
Italy rams as much stuff as they can into Persia to keep the pressure on.
Collects 13
A2
Buy: 2 TT/2 BOMB
I continue my normal plan, bringing the fleet up to Iwo Jima (and also snipe the stray Japanese DD with air power). This scares the Axis Team as, since they bought almost all land units last turn, are mostly unprepared to fight the USN at this stage (and are out-of-position to try any counterattack due to being in SEA for their own attack @ India).
In Europe, the US DD/2 TT go to SZ6 to join the rest of the British fleet (1 CA/4 DD, now 5 DD thanks to the Americans). I also put the extra US Fighter in Bury to force Japan to bring more things there to deal with the Soviet stack (I am also hoping that the Fighter will deter an attack and allow the Soviets to break into China as they did in the other matches).
China had nothing to do but unite its remaining stack with the Soviet one and hope to hold on.
Collects 38
J3
Buy: CA/3 DD
The point of the buy is that the Axis Team wanted to bet the game on the outcome of a naval clash, rather than allow the Americans to deadzone the Japan SZ for the entire game with Bomber spam buys. Dave was the first one to correctly intuit what I was doing with the Allies, so kudos to him for figuring it out under the pressure of a live tournament game.
Japan made more gains in China, set up next to India (which I left open, but there is a large British stack on Persia threatening a counterattack), and moved the entire fleet back to Japan SZ, where they attacked the Siberian stack. The US Fighter put in work, and made sure all Japanese land units died as well. Tokyo is now basically defenseless, and on America’s turn I will consider whether to attack.
Collects 36
R3
Buy: 3 TANK/4 INF
I forego the chance to snipe the German Med. Transport to send both Soviet air units into China to make another play there. It works again, and now Japan is starting to finally get thinned out in China after their very good early game.
On the Russia-Germany front, I made the decision to stack up in E. Ukr. and send a force south into Bulgaria-Romania. In hindsight, this was a positional error, just like last turn. Not stepping to Belorussia is allowing Germany to keep making attacks against the Royal Navy without any threat of a counterattack from USSR -> Karelia. My strategies with USSR and UK are not in-sync like they were in the other two games where I was Allies, and it is costing me badly here.
Collects 28
G3
Buy; CV/DD/FTR/INF, banks 2 IPC
Germany attacks the British fleet with everything in-range except for their Cruiser, as the Axis Team thinks it would be better to keep at least one boat back in case the attack somehow fails.
The fight was, from what I can recall:
2 CV
4 FTR
1 BOMB
Vs.
5 DD
1 CA
Calc’ing this now as-written says it’s a 88% chance win for the Germans, but that they should expect to have 3-4 attacking units survive. It was smart of the Axis Team to bring the Carriers to soak hits, as without them the odds drop to a miserable 49%, a virtual coinflip.
At the table, the Axis had a middling first round of dice, and we were left with something like:
3 FTR
1 BOMB
Vs.
2 FTR
The Axis Team considered retreating at this point, not wanting to lose more air, but ultimately decided to press on out of a desire to kill the Allied Transports and not give the 2 FTR/1 BOMB a chance to counterattack the Baltic Fleet and wipe everything out. This ultimately proved to be the correct decision, as the Germans got all their hits on the next round of combat and the British got 0 hits back. Luck aside, it was right to lose the air to ensure the British fleet was 100% killed off for a second time, as this slowed me down significantly during the transition from mid -> late game.
In Russia, the Germans tried to take advantage of how out-of-position I was in E. Ukr. by walking their main stack into Belorussia. Their hope was that I would retreat the Soviets to Moscow in the face of his numbers. However, I think the Axis Team accidentally counted their air power in with the Belo Stack, as they diverted a large number of troops from the potential stack to go retake Ukraine, Bulgaria-Romania and Norway from the Allies there. You will see on R4 that the Soviets would have an easy time killing the German stack.
Elsewhere, the Germans in Africa ran south to gobble up IPCs.
Collects 40, ends on 42
B3
Buy: 1 CV/2 DD, saves 2 IPC
I leave a blocker in Persia but move the main stack to India (to hold it now that the Japanese fleet is out of position). In retrospect it may have been wiser to repeat my strategy from Round 3 and make now the time to try for a UK IC in India. That plus the stack would have prevented India’s fall to the Axis, which could have made a huge difference in the outcome, as you will see.
The Fighters from E. Ukr. NCM to SZ6 to land on the newly built Carrier. This probably should have been at least partially set up earlier to boost UK’s odds Vs. Germany as much as possible.
Collects 26, ends on 28. My notes say UK collected 33 and ended on 35 but I’m not sure how that could have possibly happened unless I got something wrong in setting up my recreation board. Please refer to whatever video gets posted on YT later to see how this happened.
I3
Buy: 3 INF/ART
Using Ukraine (captured by Germany earlier) as a can-opener, the 2 Italian Tanks in Russia blitz to Caucasus, joined by the Italian Navy picking up everything in-range from in/around Italy. This brings an impressive 2 INF/ART/3 TANK stack into Caucasus to crush it. The blocker in Persia is also crushed by the TJ stack (in hindsight, it probably would have been smarter to either stack Caucasus with the British (and accept that India is lost/needs to be retaken on the final few turns), or build the India IC and let the Soviets/Italians trade Caucasus for the rest of the game).
Regardless, the Italians get Caucasus, and thus reach a strong/stable income level.
Collects 18
A3
Buy: 3 BOMB, banks 2 IPC
At this point, I make the grave mistake that costs me the entire match (and thus the tournament). According to my notes, the fight for Japan’s SZ was:
2 CV
1 DD
1 CA
1 BB
5 BOMB
Vs.
3 DD
2 CV
1 CA
4 FTR
2 BB
This fight, of course, is suicide, with 1% odds to the attacker.
But if you read that spread again, as I did while typing this report, you’ll notice that THE FIGHTERS ARE MISSING FROM THE US SIDE
Yes, as it happened, I completely missed the 4 American Fighters (from the Carriers, of course). Adding them back in boosts USA’s odds to outright win the game to 76% (well, 76% chance to win the fleet battle, then 70% chance for the American Tank off Iwo Jima to successfully 1v1 the lone Bomber in Tokyo, for a grand total of .76 * .70 = 53% chance to outright win the game on the spot, and if the Tank failed to win in Tokyo, it was fine, since the other transports could have moved up from W. US to force Japan to spend a turn building all land units while the Americans sped off to win in China/Philippine.
But, in the actual game, I panicked when I saw the calc, and tried moving the Bombers + extra transports up while sacrificing the first Transport (with a Tank loaded) to take Shanghai (in an attempt to draw Japan’s few remaining land units to move away from the front lines). Even this was a bad play, as the fleet should have at least retreated to draw the IJN away from coastal China for another few rounds.
The American bombers all landed on Iwo Jima as well, when they should have at least gone into China to continue the task of cleaning up Japanese land units for China’s sake (there was still one Japanese land stack + a few blockers roaming over there).
As for China, all it could do was attack a blocker and continue trying to keep its last stack alive.
Collects 38, ends with 40
J4
Buy: IC/BOMB/SUB, saves 3 IPC
The build is to account for the American bomber spam, as the Axis Team deemed it too expensive to keep building escorting boats for the Transports while USSR/China had made massive inroads in that part of the board.
Japan, of course, massively capitalizes on my indecisiveness as the Americans during A3, and wipes out the entire USN for the cost of most of Japan’s ships. To complicate the issue, the Axis Team decided to split their transports into 3 separate SZs, none of which were the one that contained the surviving IJN. This meant that America would need to choose between cleaning the Transports and cleaning the IJN during A4, which made America’s bad position infinitely worse.
They also played in China, continuing to swap land territories there.
The IC goes to Manchuria.
Collects 33, ends on 36. My notes have them lower than this. That, coupled with UK’s income being lower than expected suggests to me that UK sneaked a Tank into SEA at some point. You’ll have to see if that was the case in whatever video of this game gets uploaded later.
R4
Buy: 5 TANK/1 INF
The build is forced because USSR only has 6 production slots due to Italy taking Caucasus.
The battle for Belorussia was:
9 INF
1 ART
11 TANK
1 FTR
1 BOMB
Vs.
13 INF
1 ART
6 TANK
Like all the other major battles, I calc’d this after the fact and ended up with 83% for USSR. This proved accurate, as the Soviets won big here and crushed through the German stack (although Soviets lost all their INF/ART, so were left with only tanks at this point).
Soviets also continued doing their best to keep playing in China.
Collects 18 (as you’d imagine, losing Caucasus hurt)
G4
Buy: DD/3 ART/TANK/5 INF, banks 2 IPC
The buy was a reaction to losing the entire German land stack. The Axis Team’s priority has shifted to defense in Europe and letting Italy win the game via Caucasus/India.
To that end, Germany’s turn is passive, shoving as many things as possible into Caucasus/Karelia as possible while slowly/carefully advancing in Africa.
Collects 40, ends on 42
B4
Buy; 2 TT/1 CA, banks 2 IPC
My notes say I also bought a Destroyer. It might have something to do with whatever extra money I had from playing in SEA (which I didn’t record here sadly).
I had the India stack attack the Persia stack, because I wanted to make sure it didn’t get to Caucasus during I4. This proved to be a bad idea because I ended up retreating with a Bomber left Vs. his Tank. This would prove to be the last mistake I’d be allowed in this match, as you will see shortly.
Collects 25, ends with 27
I4
Buy: 6 INF
The specific placement is 3 to Caucasus, 3 to Italy. This is so Italy can get all possible bombard shots during I5.
Italy diverts 2 Tanks to smash into India and capture it, the final punishment for the combination of:
-USA’s failure to kill Tokyo or at least destroy the IJN during A3.
-UK’s failure to build an India IC after the Sealion threat was neutralized (The time for this would have been B3, after the second wave of German air/navy was sacrificed to destroy the second UK Fleet).
-UK attacking Persia and retreating the bomber during B4 instead of either holding the ground or staying to win the land battle (which would have forced the Italian navy to amphib India to take it, or spare India for the time and have Japan do a walk-in, which could be dealt with more easily for reasons that will become clear towards the end of the game).
Axis now have a large enough VC Lead that Allies would need to recapture 2 before the end of the game to be able to win.
Collects 23
A4
Buy; 3 TT/1 ART/5 INF
Out of desperation, I attempt a last-second Europe switch to try sneaking into France on A6. This is something that worked occasionally in-practice, but under the stress of the situation I forgot the critical detail that this last-second switch was only helpful in positions where Japan was already dealt with (this was not one of those positions, seeing as Japan still had navy alive + an IC in Asia that I had no way of taking).
In retrospect, even if I did insist on going down this path, I completely neglected to factor in the 3 US Land Units (2 INF/ART) that were already in the UK from the A1 anti-Sealion buy. That’s 10 IPC I could have spent on a FTR instead, which would have been one more HP for the final battle. Not relevant given the much bigger mistakes that lead to this moment (up to and including this entire buy!), but it’s an efficiency thing.
I fell for the trap laid by the Axis Team badly here. Thinking their objective was Australia (another VC), I sent two bombers to kill 2/3 Japanese Transports (the two that were in range of Hawaii), and sent the rest to attack the remnants of the IJN. This was a miserably poor move for multiple reasons:
-
I spared a Japanese TT, which will cause issues immediately that will cascade for the rest of the game.
-
The IJN Remnants (2 BB/1 CA) were harmless in their current position, as there were no accompanying transports. They could (and should) have been left for later.
-
There was another loaded carrier beyond the fleet I was targeting. My attack on the fleet was meant to stop them from uniting during J5 but I failed to account for the sheer amount of attrition I’d be taking + the fact that I did not build another wave of Bombers, meaning attrition losses would not be replaced. This means that despite destroying this fleet, I would not be able to destroy whatever navy Japan follows-up with on J5, which is exactly what ended up happening in the ame.
-
Because I got tunnel vision on Japan’s various ships, I lost focus on the potential to do something about the Japanese air ball, which was currently defending the Manchuria IC (if I remember correctly), and thus in-range for a high-value piece trade.
These misses would have fatal consequences as the game nears its conclusion. To top it off, the bombers attacking the IJN have horrific luck and are all shot down (the battle was a tie). The survivors NCM to Australia to prepare a possible strafe against India to remove the defenders there.
China has nothing to do but place blockers everywhere to contain Japan’s stack. They have no way to stop the Manchuria factory as it begins to pump out troops.
Collects 38
J5
Buy: 3 TANK/4 INF/TT, banks 2 IPC
One of the Transports I let live (@ Wake Island), runs back to SZ61 (China Coast) and starts ferrying new troops to the mainland. In general, Japan begins to dominate China due to how thin the numbers of both sides are.
I don’t realize it at the time, but all Japanese air units are currently in-position to NCM to India during J6. This is why I said it was important for UK to stay there or otherwise prevent Italy from being the one to capture it earlier in the game.
Collects 35, ends on 37
R5
Buy: 6 INF
The Soviets technically had the option of taking Karelia, but because Allies need to get 2 VCs before the game ends, they’re instead forced to smash all their tanks into Caucasus and Persia (and enough Tanks in Persia to prevent and Axis blockers from getting into position). This is why UK needed to kill the Persia stack during B4 earlier, to prevent Italy from locking down Persia and preventing USSR from taking it on R5, after which they could have just left a blocker and locked down India for the guaranteed win.
As it happened in-game, Soviets got both territories easily, setting up a final battle over India on R5 that would determine the fate of the game.
Collects 24. My notes say USSR was down to 19, so Germany must have made progress in the northern part of Russia (Archangel/Urals/etc.) that I didn’t notice during my recreation attempt. Like the other inconsistencies, please refer to whatever video gets uploaded for 100% accuracy
G5
Buy: SUB/2 DD/5 INF/SBR Repair
Apparently I did a SBR against Karelia at some point during the game. I didn’t note that I did one but I did note that Germany repaired the damage at this stage. It makes sense, given that Germany’s goal now is to lock down the European VCs as much as possible and win with India.
Collects 46
B5
Buy: 2 DD/2 INF/ART
All UK can do at this point is make a desperation play in NWE to try tricking Germany into over-comitting there during G6 (and dropping their guard on France).
Collects 25
I5
Buy: 4 INF/2 TANK, banks 1 IPC
Italy throws everything they have at Caucasus to reduce the Soviet Tank Count. The bombards do massive damage, and the Red Army is crippled (but Caucasus does hold).
Collects 17
A5
Buy: 3 BOMB, banks 2 IPC
The buy is for E. US. If UK can take NWE next turn the Bombers can support the 3 TT/5 INF/ART play from last turn as they attack from Canada -> France as a Hail Mary pass.
The only thing America can do at this point is use the Bombers from Australia to clear out India. They succeed at this.
China lunges forward with the last of their INF. They’re one tile away from a VC, but they’re not going to make it.
Collects 38, ends on 40
J6
We declared this as the final turn after a brief debate (in retrospect, given the board state, I should have argued more strongly for a 7th turn to give Soviets time to amass enough force to take India, as the Western Allies had no prayer of breaking into any of the German VCs at this point).
Buy: Irrelevant
In the “checkmate” move of the game, Japan kills the last Chinese holdouts that were in-range of any VCs then NCMs their air ball to India to lock down the VC.
R6
USSR’s odds at India are only 12%, so I use the last turn instead trying to gobble up as many IPCs as I can in case I get lucky with UK/US. If I’d stopped to think I would have realized that their odds of success were much MUCH lower than 12%, and just taken the shot @ India.
G6
Buy: 2 FTR/3 SUB/DD
Their buy is to lock down the Baltic as much as possible so UK can’t sneak in and take Poland.
The Axis Team didn’t fall for my plan. They min-maxxed NWE and France to mix defense and offense.
B6
The only way out I can see at this point is taking 1 INF + air to hit NWE and some spare units to try rigging a hit in France (since the other 6 Italian land units are going to move up during I6). In retrospect I should have just sent the air to France and all land units to NWE, even if the effort is futile at this point anyway.
I lose the NWE fight and then give up, since now the American Bombers can’t help fight in France during A6.
Axis Win
(5/6)