Round 1
From what I was told, my opponents were the previous year’s champions. They played well save for the very last turn of the game, so that does check out.
Side: Axis
Bid Die Roll: Lost
Bid: 0
(technically “Axis +2”, but the convention’s rules say that you may not bank bid IPCs. This may seem strange if you’re used to online play, where banking bids is allowed. There was also no rule against putting multiple bid units in the same territory, but the bids here were so low that it was never an issue.)
J1:
Buy: 2 TT/1 BOMB, bank 5 IPC
-CV/2 FTR/BB attacks SZ35 (British India fleet)
-3 INF/2 FTR/BOMB attacks Yunnan (Chinese FTR)
-2 INF/TANK attacks Fukien (amphib, INF is from Okinawa, TANK is from Japan)
-2 INF/1 FTR attacks Hupeh (1 Chinese INF)
-2 INF/2 FTR attacks Suiyuan (2 Chinese INF)
The point of this opening is that I do not attack Pearl Harbor. This accomplishes two things:
1.) Puts the odds of all China fights at ~99%. This prevents any disasters that could throw the game off the rails.
2.) Preserves most if not all of Japan’s fleet (it’s possible to lose the CV in India if the Allies roll well), which helps protect against USA later.
3.) Allows me to keep 1 INF in Manchuria and land 3 FTRs there, to prevent any Soviet walk-ins during R1.
Luck-wise, the battles went well enough.
Collects 35, ends on 40
R1
Buy: 8 INF
USSR went for what is considered the standard line for Allies at Gen Con:
-Attacks Ukraine with 3 INF/1 ART/BOMB
-Attacks Belo with 6 INF/FTR
-Attacks E. Ukr. with everything in range (3 INF/1 ART/4 TANK)
The odds on these are:
Belo - 99%
E. Ukr - 97%
Ukr - 94% (odds of taking the territory, not winning the fight outright)
This seems fine enough, but the odds of winning both E. Ukr and Ukr are .97*.94 = 91%, meaning that in roughly 1-in-10 games something is going to go wrong during this opening.
I bring up this statistic because this game proved to the “1-in-10” for my opponents. The Ukraine fight failed with 1 BOMB retreating Vs. the TANK. This led my opponent to retreat from E. Ukr. after reducing the German stack there to 2 TANK (the Germans rolled well on the first defensive combat roll, and the Allied Team wanted to prevent their TANKs from being destroyed by a German counterattack during G1 (they rolled Ukraine first and thus knew that the Germans had an extra tank available)).
The only compensation to the Soviets was that they cleared Belo with 0 losses.
Collects 25
G1
Buy: 1 FTR/9 INF
-INF+TANK from France load onto SZ13 TT.
-TT (INF/TANK loaded)/DD/FTR (Bulgaria-Romania) attacks SZ15 (Egypt SZ, 1 DD)
-2 INF/2 TANK/1 BOMB attacks Egypt (1 INF/1 TANK amphib)
-2 SS/1 FTR (France) attacks Africa fleet.
-All other available forces strafe Belorussia.
The point of the build is to compensate for the potential lost BOMB in Egypt with the FTR, and the INF are to fill production slots start a INF-push towards E. Ukr (forking Caucasus/Moscow) or Belo (forking Karelia/Moscow) depending on the game.
The Egypt fight stats are:
Fleet battle - 93% win, 4% transport survives (also a win), 3% loss
Egypt battle - 43% win, 8.5% draw (also a win, see explanation below), 48.5% loss
This fight is not necessarily intended to be a win (unless Axis receive a bid, in which case your odds jump to 68% (3 bid/INF) or 75% (4 bid/ART)). Rather, the intent is to reduce the number of units UK can possibly bring into the ME/India as much as possible. Reducing the stack in this way, even at the potential cost of the German Bomber, forces UK to vacate TJ during B1 or risk having the entire ME stack blasted away by the Italians during I1. In either case, as long as Germany isn’t completely destroyed on the Egypt attack (which can happen), the Euro-Axis will take the Suez during round 1, which will set up a 1-2 punch of India during I2/J3 (which is an excellent counter to a hypothetical B1 UK IC play). If UK does not build the IC Italy can just take India itself, which allows Japan to keep its fleet in better position to stave off advances by the US and play into the mid/late game at a large advantage.
The Belo fight is self-explanatory. Strafe the stack there and fall back to prevent any counterattacks. This puts the Soviets on the back-foot for most of the game, given the ~6 turn time limit.
In this game, the Egypt rolls went exceptionally well, and Germany took the territory with 2 TANK/BOMB left (so only 2 losses). This paired with the bad Soviet rolls during R1 caused major problems for the Allies for the rest of the game, to the point where if it was a casual game I would have offered to just start over for a more fair experience. Winning this way isn’t fun for anyone involved, and I hope I was able to get that feeling across to my opponents at the time.
Collects 34
B1
Buy: CV/TT/FTR
Nothing too special here. Fleet got consolidated as you’d expect and the air power from UK attacked the bare German navy (I rolled +1 there. They made the decision to drop both FTRs instead of keeping one for the CV). They also went to Norway for a walk-in (I moved everything to Finland during Germany’s NCM). Everything else is about what you’d expect, but I don’t think the India stack went back to Persia to cover the retreat of the TJ stack, which caused problems during G2.
Collects 34
I1
Buy: 3 INF, bank 1 IPC
Nothing special here. Just walk-ins @ Egypt and TJ while shuffling forward the spares on the mainland. FTR went to Egypt to be in-range of a potential I2 India crush.
Collects 11, ends on 12
A1
Buy: 2 CV/1 FTR
This was the usual Gen Con strategy for Allies, which is to move all units towards the Pacific to prepare for a KJF push. The East Coast DD moved to the Africa SZ along with Bomber support to clean out the German sub there.
China bulked up it’s remaining forces in Ningxia to defend together. They built 1 INF in Chinghai (the territory next to USSR)
Collects 38
J2
Buy: 3 BOMB, bank 4 IPCs
-UK left their Africa TT in SZ33 (in 2-range from India SZ), so I sent an empty CV to kill it (this minimizes how many resources are left out of position for the critical fleet showdown that is fast approaching).
-BB from India to SZ36 (SEA), all available transports to SZ36 (the ones from Japan pick up all available units from Tokyo, the one from China stops at Philippines and picks up the 2 INF there).
-1 INF (Suiyuan)/1 TANK (Fukien)/3 FTR (Man.)/2 BOMB attack Ningxia (main Chinese stack)
-1 INF (Hupeh) walks into Sikang
-1 INF (Yunnan)/2 FTR (India SZ, FIC) attacks Burma (1 INF)
The IJN consolidates in SZ61 (China coast), the air ball consolidates on either the available CV or Manchuria. Everything is now in-range in case USA tries to move out during A2. This is also the point of the Bomber spam, stalling out the American advance in the Pacific by means of threat projection with high firepower. This will become evident as the game progresses.
Collects 37, ends on 41
R2
Buy: 7 INF/1 ART
Straight defense from the Soviets. Just a walk-in @ E. Ukr (I left it empty to do the Belo strafe) + a trade in Ukr. (I had 1 INF there to block). Siberia stack did not move forward. I suspect they feared the potential for the IJN to turn around and wipe them out with help from the air-ball.
Collects 26
G2
Buy: 10 INF/2 TANK
Germany took all available air power to blast through Persia alongside the 2 Tanks from the previous turn. Normally this level of effort wouldn’t really be necessary, but given the single-elimination format I didn’t want to take any chances. Beyond that, all I did was walk forward with Germany across the front. I heavily stacked Belorussia with everything available to exploit the fact that USSR was building more-or-less all INF, and was thus not capable of effectively counterattacking (because their units were split between Caucasus and Moscow).
Other than that, everything else marched forward. 2 INF stayed behind in Berlin to join the build just to make sure UK didn’t try for a lucky Berlin attack.
Collects 38 (E. Ukr. trade failed because the INF died)
B2
Buy: 5 INF/TT/FTR, bank 2 IPCs
They went all in to attack Karelia and got it. At this point UK was already getting air units funneled to Moscow ASAP because of Germany’s strong position.
Collects 32, ends on 34
I2
Buy: 2 TANK, save 2 IPCs
I bought Tanks because UK’s fleet is in the White Sea, and thus unable to hit France on B3. These tanks will be making a beeline for the Russian front to make threats where possible.
Regardless, the Italians sail through the Suez and crash into India with everything available. The forces in Europe walk forward to join up with the Germans where possible. They blitzed E. Ukr on the way as the Germans killed the blocker but failed to take the territory during their turn.
Collects 15, ends on 17
A2
Buy: CV/2 FTR, saves 4 IPC
Nothing special here. Just bulking up before moving out later.
Collects 38, ends on 42
J3
Buy: 3 BOMB, banks 5 IPC
With India gone, I made a minor over-extension in what was probably the first mistake of the match. I moved the IJN to Philippines and took 6 land units (5 from FIC + 1 INF picked up in Borneo). The idea was to fork Hawaii and Australia, and force the US to make a move, but the Philippines SZ had a slight coverage issue, which will become apparent on A3.
In Asia, I intentionally kept the last Chinese holdout alive because I wanted to start moving land units back to cover the inevitable advance of the Siberian stack.
Collects 37, ends on 42
Note that because I am spamming bombers and the Allies are spamming CV/FTR combos, and that Japan’s income is on-par with USA’s, Japan actually has the advantage in the Pacific the longer this stalling/buildup goes on for.
R3
Buy: 7 INF/1 TANK
Soviets continue to defend Caucasus/Moscow and trade. One neat trick was that they parked a sub in SZ13 (Italy’s SZ). If I were buying more navy, this could have caused annoying problems with loading/unloading, but it didn’t end up mattering here.
Collects 25
G3
Buy 7: TANK/1 INF
The point of the Tanks is to go for a timing-attack on Moscow for G5. UK hasn’t been giving the best support to Moscow or putting on the best pressure, and Soviets are still building mostly INF because of the extremely poor dice they got during the early rounds. Thus, the plan is to send the big tank stack to E. Poland G4, and then break for Moscow G5. If Soviets defend well and the odds aren’t looking good anymore, everything will go for Caucasus instead to go for a last-second VC grab.
The only battle other than walk-ins/blitz moves this turn was having the Belo stack turn around and smash Karelia.
Collects 41
B3
Buy: 7 INF/FTR, banks 3 IPC
Without much to do, UK gets the fleet back in the Atlantic and goes for NWE (it’s the only relevant target and could force a response from Axis).
Collects 31, ends on 34
I3
Buy: 4 INF/TANK
Italy also doesn’t have much to do outside of their support role. They do take the India guys and charge down to Australia to soften up the VC for a future JP walk-in (or outright take it if they get lucky enough). The battle ends in a draw, which is good enough as now JP doesn’t have to send any fleet out of position to grab the VC.
Collects 14
A3
Buy: 1 FTR/2 BOMB, banks 8 IPC
USA makes their move, which is to specifically move to SZ58 (one SZ north of Iwo Jima, still borders the Japan SZ (62)). The Allied Team’s intent was to exploit the fact that the IJN based out of the Philippines cannot reach SZ58 from their current position, meaning the air has to go alone.
Collects 38, ends on 46
J4
Buy: 2 FTR/4 INF/2 TANK
The buy was to hedge my bets in case attacking the US Fleet fails, of course.
When looking over the position, I came to the realization that the positioning of the US Fleet has one exploitable weakness in that it is not over an island. This means that the Allies need to mind their OOL or I can retreat and force the loss of multiple FTRs for free.
With that in mind, I attacked in everything in range. The battle was roughly:
4 FTR/8 BOMB
Vs.
SS/4 CV/2 DD/1 CA/1 BB/7 FTR
Obviously a terrible odds fight. I didn’t make any attempt at calc’ing it by-hand at the tournament it so my numbers here may be slightly off. The point was always to strafe, of course.
The second half of this plan was to move the Philippines fleet to Hawaii (save for 1 TT, which walked into Australia). The plan here of course was to do everything in my power to convince the USN to turn around during A4 to retake Hawaii instead of making a play in Asia.
The air battle worked. I lost a large number of air units but the Allied Team took CVs as losses before any FTRs, so I was able to withdraw after 1 round of combat and force the loss of 3 FTRs for nothing. This significantly weakened the USN, which would make it easier to kill on the following turn provided they went to Hawaii as expected. Going to the Philippines during J3 was definitely a major error.
That being said, that battle in the SZ could have very easily gone terribly for me and put me on the back-foot in the Pacific. I was lucky the Allied Team got the OOL wrong or things may have gotten very ugly.
Collects 40
R4
Buy: 7 INF/ART
Continued trades/minor pushes. However, the Soviets did divert their tanks + a decent INF stack from Caucasus to go to Persia. The intent of course was to get India back (since it was basically empty). They clobbered the small German/Italian force there no-problem, but now several INF are out of position for the planned Moscow push.
Collects 22
G4
*Buy: 7 INF/2 TANK/FTR
Every single unit possible went to Belorussia to prepare for the final attack on G5.
Collects 34
B4
Buy: 7 INF/FTR, banks 3 IPC
-Picks up 1 INF from NWE + 7 from UK + all available air and attacks Karelia.
-Rest of the INF from NWE go to France.
-The INF/ART duo from South Africa have finally reached Egypt.
The Allied team is likely thinking I am going to turn around to attack Karelia again.
Collects 38, ends on 41
I4
Buy: 4 INF, banks 2 IPC
The Italians in Russia join the main stack in Belo. The navy in Australia goes to the Philippines to get ready for a potential counterattack if the Americans go to either Pearl or Japan. All units in Italy proper go to retake France.
Collects 14, ends of 16
A4
Buy: 2 CV/FTR/DD
The buy is to land all the FTRs purchased the previous turn.
As hoped, the Americans turn their fleet and air ball around and pound Pearl Harbor to retake Hawaii. Destroying the Japanese Fleet causes the Americans to lose most of their ships (everything except the Carriers and Battleship), and also take a few Bomber losses to make sure the Carriers and Fighters stay alive. This plays directly into Japan’s plan as you will see immediately.
Collects 38
J5
Buy: 3 BOMB, banks 4 IPC
The Bombers from Japan move out to hit Pearl. I don’t remember whether the Bombers alone sunk the fleet but even if they didn’t, the point of the attack was to do enough damage to the Americans that the Italian navy was able to follow-up and sink what was left before America could move again.
Collects 39, ends on 43
R5
Buy: 7 INF, banks 1 IPC
Everything began walking back to Moscow at this point, as my opponents sensed the danger they were now in. However, they also sent 1 INF to retake Archangel and also bought 7 INF instead of specifically buying 6 units for Moscow to marginally improve their odds of survival.
The Siberian stack also moved up at this point, even thought it’s a bit late in the game for that to help.
Collects 29, ends with 30
G5
Buy: 8 INF/2 TANK
The Battle for Moscow was:
17 INF
1 ART
16 TANK
6 FTR
1 BOMB
Vs.
26 INF
1 ART
1 BOMB
5 TANK
5 FTR
AA
I Calc’d the battle retroactively, and it says this was a 72% German win.
Germany won here, but not a lot survived. Only 2 TANK made it through for Germany (I purposely killed air first to increase my odds of holding the territory through the following Soviet turn). The Allied Team rolled much better than I did, but for some reason insisted on keeping their Bomber alive until after all of their Infantry died. I imagine this at least somewhat made them roll under for the battle.
Ends with 34. Stole all of USSR’s money from taking the capital so ends on 64
B5
Buy: 2 FTR/1 TANK/2 ART/3 INF
Goes to France with everything that can make it. The force in Karelia tries to get in-range to relieve Moscow. The Egypt force starts taking free IPCs.
Collects 40
I5
Buy: 5 INF, banks 1 IPC
Anything in-range gets into Moscow to help defend. I forget whether the Italian Navy needed to mop up the Americans at Pearl or not. I am assuming that they did.
Collects 12, ends on 13
A5
Buy: 2 TT/2 FTR, banks 4 IPC
If the Italian navy moved up, the Americans killed it with their air. Either way, the new navy stayed parked in U.S. West Coast to bulk back up.
Collects 38, ends on 42
J6
Buy: 3 BOMB, banks 7 IPC
Since America was all the way back home, Japan was free to hit the Siberians with everything in-range.
Collects 40, ends on 47
R6
Can’t buy
Throws everything they have at Moscow. It fails.
G6
Buy; 2 FTR/14 INF
At this point the game is effectively over, so I fan out, lock down every VC I can reach, and bolster Moscow and Berlin to stop any last-second tricks.
Collects 42
B6
Buy; FTR/4 TANK/3 INF
UK All-ins @ Germany. It fails, then the Allies resign.
Axis Win
Not much to discuss here. The miss on the positioning of the Russians doomed them. The attempt to break out of Caucasus and go to Persia specifically is what cost the Allies everything. I would have liked to play a more standard game without the Axis’s insane luck during R1/G1 because that set the tone for how the European half of the board played out and it made life very difficult for the Soviets/very easy for the Germans.
(2/6)