Best posts made by DoManMacgee

@VictoryFirst So the UK DD dies while the US one lives. Feel free to make that edit during your Germany turn. It would not have changed anything that I did.

@VictoryFirst 0/13 hits. I’m approaching TGC’s level of bad luck lol.

Jokes aside, will work on my move later this afternoon.

@The_Good_Captain Do you want to fight to the death again? USSR’s turn is already over so you’re not blocking income anymore but you may be able to kill the carriers if my luck continues to trend badly. From what I can tell, in this edition Submarines do not get sneak-attack rolls when on defense; only offense.

@The_Good_Captain Game History

Round: 4

    Actions - Russians
        Russians takes action: Action UKPays1PUs
        Action UKPays1PUs activates a trigger called: Trigger UKPays1PUs
        Trigger UKPays1PUs: British met a national objective for an additional -1 PUs; end with 16 PUs

    Purchase Units - Russians
        Russians buy 6 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Russians
        1 armour moved from Belorussia to Ukraine S.S.R.
        1 fighter moved from Caucasus to Baltic States
        1 bomber moved from Caucasus to Baltic States

    Combat - Russians
        Battle in Ukraine S.S.R.
            Russians attack with 1 armour
            Germans defend with 1 aaGun and 1 infantry
                Russians roll dice for 1 armour in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
            Russians win, taking Ukraine S.S.R. from Germans with 1 armour remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
        Battle in Baltic States
            Russians attack with 1 bomber and 1 fighter
            Germans defend with 1 infantry
                Russians roll dice for 1 bomber and 1 fighter in Baltic States, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Baltic States
            Russians win with 1 bomber and 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Russians
        1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from Baltic States to Leningrad
        5 infantry moved from Karelia to Russia
        2 artilleries and 4 infantry moved from Leningrad to Russia
        4 armour moved from Belorussia to Leningrad
        8 infantry moved from Stalingrad to Turkestan
        1 aaGun moved from Stalingrad to Belorussia
        3 artilleries and 41 infantry moved from Belorussia to Russia

    Place Units - Russians
        6 infantry placed in Moscow

    Turn Complete - Russians
        Russians collect 22 PUs; end with 22 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans regular : -0.67
Russians regular : 1.33

Game History

Round: 4

    Purchase Units - British
        British buy 2 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - British
        2 carriers and 4 fighters moved from Soviet Convoy Sea Zone to North Sea Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to North Atlantic Sea Zone
        1 transport moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone
        1 armour moved from United Kingdom to English Channel Sea Zone
        1 armour moved from English Channel Sea Zone to France
              British take France from Germans
        1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Palestine to Syria
        1 infantry moved from Caucasus to Turkestan
        2 fighters moved from Stalingrad to Leningrad

    Combat - British

    Non Combat Move - British

    Place Units - British
        2 transports placed in English Channel Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - British
        British collect 17 PUs; end with 17 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Game History

Round: 4

    Purchase Units - Americans
        Americans buy 2 infantry, 1 submarine and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 6 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Americans
        4 fighters moved from United States to North Sea Sea Zone
        3 fighters moved from United Kingdom to Leningrad
        4 fighters moved from North Sea Sea Zone to Vyborg
        1 bomber moved from Caucasus to Vyborg

    Combat - Americans
        Battle in Vyborg
            Americans attack with 1 bomber and 4 fighters
            Germans defend with 2 infantry
                Americans roll dice for 1 bomber and 4 fighters in Vyborg, round 2 : 3/5 hits, 2.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 2 infantry in Vyborg, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 fighter owned by the Americans and 1 bomber owned by the Americans lost in Vyborg
                2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Vyborg
            Americans win with 3 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is -21
            Casualties for Americans: 1 bomber and 1 fighter
            Casualties for Germans: 2 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Americans
        3 fighters moved from Vyborg to Leningrad

    Place Units - Americans
        1 submarine and 2 transports placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
        2 infantry placed in United States

    Turn Complete - Americans
        Americans collect 36 PUs; end with 42 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans regular : 0.33
Germans regular : 1.33

AAE-game12-A4.tsvg

Am rapidly realizing my previous guess about the ME was wrong. The Atlantic really is the end-all/be-all here because of the convoy spaces.

@The_Good_Captain
Game History

Round: 5

    Purchase Units - Americans
        Americans buy 1 fighter, 1 infantry, 1 submarine and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Americans
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
        6 fighters moved from Leningrad to Baltic States
        4 fighters moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Karelia
        EDIT: 1 submarine and 2 transports moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Mid-Atlantic Sea Zone

    Combat - Americans
        Battle in Baltic States
            Americans attack with 6 fighters
            Germans defend with 1 infantry
                Americans roll dice for 6 fighters in Baltic States, round 2 : 3/6 hits, 3.00 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Baltic States
            Americans win with 6 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Americans
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
        6 fighters moved from Baltic States to Moscow
        EDIT: 1 submarine and 2 transports moved from Mid-Atlantic Sea Zone to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone

    Place Units - Americans
        1 submarine and 2 transports placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 1 infantry placed in United States

    Turn Complete - Americans
        Americans collect 30 PUs; end with 32 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans regular : 0.00
Germans regular : -0.33

AAE-game12-A5.tsvg

No G6 Moscow this time but the FTR pipeline is gone and US is more or less paralyzed for the immediate future. Germany is probably going to win but I’m still interested in seeing where things go from here.

@The_Good_Captain said in TGC (Germany) vs Doman (Allies) Europe, oob:

@DoManMacgee also, I added 4 IPC to the USA economy since nothing was lost by moving to the Southern USA convoy zone, freeing it, then returning to the embattled zone

That was me misunderstanding the rules. I thought you couldn’t leave the “contested” zone and then return in the same move, but re-reading the rules nothing explicitly prohibits it. Thanks.

@VictoryFirst AAE-game14-R5.tsvg

10% with USSR attacking Moscow was better than <1% with Germans attacking Moscow. GG.

@The_Good_Captain Yeah. Similar to what I tried Vs. VictoryFirst in our game (which also regrettably didn’t work out) was the last-ditch-effort to leave Moscow and attack back into it instead of defending. That would have at least eliminated the German air-factor (or alternatively let me throw all the allied air at Berlin), but of course that’s still grasping at straws and did not work out.

@VictoryFirst Between the games with you + the games with TGC I am good to concede that my plan with the Fighters did not work (or at least, it has significant counterplay that can defeat mine as long as Germany deviates from the script of “winning on turn 6”)

We can do TGC’s balance suggestion. Under that alternate setup I am probably going to use a more “normal” plan as Allies as I do not feel Germany will have the overwhelming advantage they currently enjoy. We will see how it goes.

@VictoryFirst With that result, USSR Sub submerges. Just wanted to see if I’d get the extremely improbable event where all of your dice somehow missed. Carry on.

@VictoryFirst The entire UK airforce (3 FTR/1 BOMB) exchanged for 1 BB/1 TT on turn 1. That was a 1% outcome and had it gone normally (1 bomber dies, the 3 fighters live) Moscow would be ~40%. Will post turns later to play the game out.

Beyond my complaining about the dice, I also feel that I made a number of overly risky moves throughout the game that did not pay off (I got the Soviet Bomber/Fighter killed as well by trying strafes that did not work out). I also don’t think I played very efficiently with the US/UK navies in terms of getting troops into Europe.

Basically, I think Allies are too strong with this setup. I had miserable luck and played badly and Germany still only had ~70-73% on Berlin. In a more equal game I think Allies should be winning most of the time. I think Germany should be allowed to get their Romanian Infantry or the Bay of Biscay Sub back. However, I do agree that Germany should not have their 12 IPC bid at game start. I said as much in the other thread we were all posting in yesterday.

@VictoryFirst Yeah that’s fine. Let’s at least play the last turn of this game first for the sake of completion.

@VictoryFirst Game History

Round: 6

    Turn Complete - Russians

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Game History

Round: 6

    Purchase Units - British
        British buy 4 artilleries and 6 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - British
        6 infantry moved from Denmark to Germany
        2 infantry moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany
        3 transports moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone
        3 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from United Kingdom to English Channel Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from United Kingdom to Atlantic Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 3 infantry and 2 transports moved from Atlantic Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
        3 artilleries, 3 infantry and 3 transports moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
        4 artilleries and 6 infantry moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Germany
        1 armour moved from Tunisia to Egypt

    Combat - British
        Battle in Germany
            British attack with 4 artilleries and 14 infantry
            Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 1 factory and 26 infantry
                British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Germany, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                British roll dice for 4 artilleries and 14 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 5/18 hits, 4.33 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 26 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 9/26 hits, 8.67 expected hits
                9 infantry owned by the British lost in Germany
                5 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany
                British roll dice for 4 artilleries and 5 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 4/9 hits, 2.83 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 21 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 5/21 hits, 7.00 expected hits
                5 infantry owned by the British lost in Germany
                4 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany
                British roll dice for 4 artilleries in Germany, round 4 : 1/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 17 infantry in Germany, round 4 : 8/17 hits, 5.67 expected hits
                4 artilleries owned by the British lost in Germany
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany
            Germans win with 16 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -28
            Casualties for British: 4 artilleries and 14 infantry
            Casualties for Germans: 10 infantry

    Non Combat Move - British

    Place Units - British
        4 artilleries and 6 infantry placed in United Kingdom

    Turn Complete - British
        British collect 34 PUs; end with 34 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans regular : 0.67
British regular : 1.17

Game History

Round: 6

    Purchase Units - Americans
        Americans buy 3 artilleries, 5 infantry and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Americans
        1 artillery and 7 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 7 infantry and 4 transports moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Mid-Atlantic Sea Zone
        1 transport moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 7 infantry and 4 transports moved from Mid-Atlantic Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
        1 transport moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from United Kingdom to English Channel Sea Zone
        2 transports moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 7 infantry moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from Denmark to Germany
        2 infantry moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Germany
        2 fighters moved from United Kingdom to Germany
        1 transport moved from Baltic Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone
        2 destroyers moved from Baltic Sea Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Poland to Germany
        1 bomber moved from Denmark to Germany

    Combat - Americans
        Battle in Germany
            Americans attack with 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 5 infantry
            Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 1 factory and 16 infantry
                Germans roll AA dice in Germany : 1/3 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                1 fighter owned by the Americans lost in Germany
                Americans roll dice for 2 destroyers in Germany, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 5 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 2/7 hits, 2.00 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 16 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 4/16 hits, 5.33 expected hits
                4 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Germany
                3 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany
                Americans roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 2/3 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 13 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 5/13 hits, 4.33 expected hits
                1 fighter owned by the Americans, 1 infantry owned by the Americans and 1 bomber owned by the Americans lost in Germany
                2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany
            Germans win with 11 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -39
            Casualties for Americans: 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 5 infantry
            Casualties for Germans: 5 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Americans

    Place Units - Americans
        3 artilleries and 5 infantry placed in United States
        2 transports placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - Americans
        Americans collect 43 PUs; end with 43 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans regular : 1.00
Germans AA : 0.50
Germans regular : -0.67

That’s the game. If you start the next one I will make my move later tonight. Need to do some things at work.

@The_Good_Captain I think the current balance recommendation is overkill. I think the sub removal or Germany having no bid is sufficient. Leaning towards just removing Germany’s bid as that is more in line with the philosophy you applied to previous editions (with the exception of 1914, where you edited the map itself).

Alternatively, have you considered having the ME territories be treated as normal, income-generating territories for UK, and ax the current rules regarding ME Payments? That would give UK +8 to their starting income that would (typically) trail off over the course of the game, but they’d have an easier time building a fleet during the first two rounds without needing to resort to shenanigans like a nothing-buy or a Canada-buy B1. That type of change doesn’t seem too far removed over things you recommended in past versions (disallowing attacks on neutrals, mostly)

@VictoryFirst Kwaspek also ran that forum post by me, but I agree with the idea that changing the victory conditions is too much of a deviation to the point where you’d be entering “house rules” territory.

@VictoryFirst Game History

Round: 6

    Combat Move - Russians
        1 bomber moved from Archangel to Germany
        2 bombers and 4 fighters moved from Vyborg to Germany
        1 armour moved from Poland to Germany
        1 infantry moved from Hungary to Austria
              Russians take Austria from Germans

    Combat - Russians
        Battle in Germany
            Russians attack with 1 armour, 3 bombers and 4 fighters
            Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 1 bomber, 1 factory, 5 fighters and 27 infantry
                Germans roll AA dice in Germany : 0/7 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 armour, 3 bombers and 4 fighters in Germany, round 2 : 4/8 hits, 4.50 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 bomber, 5 fighters and 27 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 11/33 hits, 12.50 expected hits
                4 fighters owned by the Russians, 1 armour owned by the Russians and 3 bombers owned by the Russians lost in Germany
                1 bomber owned by the Germans and 3 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany
            Germans win with 5 fighters and 24 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -74
            Casualties for Russians: 1 armour, 3 bombers and 4 fighters
            Casualties for Germans: 1 bomber and 3 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Russians

    Turn Complete - Russians

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans AA : -1.17
Germans regular : -1.50
Russians regular : -0.50

Game History

Round: 6

    Purchase Units - British
        British buy 2 artilleries, 1 fighter and 5 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - British
        4 artilleries and 4 infantry moved from United Kingdom to English Channel Sea Zone
        4 artilleries, 2 destroyers, 4 infantry and 4 transports moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
        4 artilleries and 4 infantry moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Germany
        1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 bomber and 7 infantry moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany

    Combat - British
        Battle in Germany
            British attack with 1 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 bomber and 11 infantry
            Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 1 factory, 5 fighters and 24 infantry
                Germans roll AA dice in Germany : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                British roll dice for 2 destroyers in Germany, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 bomber and 11 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 4/18 hits, 5.50 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 5 fighters and 24 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 10/29 hits, 11.33 expected hits
                10 infantry owned by the British lost in Germany
                4 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany
                British roll dice for 1 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 bomber and 1 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 5/8 hits, 3.17 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 5 fighters and 20 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 13/25 hits, 10.00 expected hits
                1 bomber owned by the British, 5 artilleries owned by the British, 1 infantry owned by the British and 1 armour owned by the British lost in Germany
                5 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany
            Germans win with 5 fighters and 15 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -46
            Casualties for British: 1 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 bomber and 11 infantry
            Casualties for Germans: 9 infantry

    Non Combat Move - British

    Place Units - British
        2 artilleries, 1 fighter and 5 infantry placed in United Kingdom

    Turn Complete - British
        British collect 32 PUs; end with 32 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans AA : -0.17
Germans regular : 1.67
British regular : -0.33

Game History

Round: 6

    Purchase Units - Americans
        Americans buy 2 armour and 2 bombers; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Americans
        4 infantry moved from United Kingdom to English Channel Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
        4 infantry and 2 transports moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
        4 infantry moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Germany
        1 bomber and 6 infantry moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany
        2 submarines moved from Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone to Western Mediterranean Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from United States to United Kingdom
        6 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
        6 infantry and 3 transports moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
        1 transport moved from Mid-Atlantic Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
        2 transports moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
        6 infantry moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom

    Combat - Americans
        Battle in Western Mediterranean Sea Zone
            Americans attack with 2 submarines
            Germans defend with 1 battleship
                Americans roll dice for 2 submarines in Western Mediterranean Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
            Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the Germans
                Germans roll dice for 1 battleship in Western Mediterranean Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 2 submarines in Western Mediterranean Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 battleship in Western Mediterranean Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 submarine owned by the Americans lost in Western Mediterranean Sea Zone
                Americans roll dice for 1 submarine in Western Mediterranean Sea Zone, round 4 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 battleship owned by the Germans lost in Western Mediterranean Sea Zone
            Americans win with 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 16
            Casualties for Americans: 1 submarine
            Casualties for Germans: 1 battleship
        Battle in Germany
            Americans attack with 1 bomber and 10 infantry
            Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 1 factory, 5 fighters and 15 infantry
                Germans roll AA dice in Germany : 1/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                1 bomber owned by the Americans lost in Germany
                Americans roll dice for 1 destroyer in Germany, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 10 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 1/10 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 5 fighters and 15 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 5/20 hits, 8.33 expected hits
                5 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Germany
                2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany
                Americans roll dice for 5 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 1/5 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 5 fighters and 13 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 9/18 hits, 7.67 expected hits
                5 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Germany
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany
            Germans win with 5 fighters and 12 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -36
            Casualties for Americans: 1 bomber and 10 infantry
            Casualties for Germans: 3 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Americans

    Place Units - Americans
        2 armour and 2 bombers placed in United States

    Turn Complete - Americans
        Americans collect 40 PUs; end with 40 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans regular : 0.50
Germans AA : 0.83
Germans regular : -2.33

No dice. I admit that I over-estimated how good the Allies’ position would be with the current changes. I’m good to try one more time if you are.

@VictoryFirst said in VF (Germany) vs. DoMan (Allies) | Original Europe, Game 6 - Balance 3.0:

(3/6)(3/6)(3/6)(2/6)3 + (3/6)(3/6)(3/6)*(4/6)

That is correct for exactly one hit for just the UK stuff. To add in the USA stuff, it becomes a bit more involved:

UK Force: 3 @ 3, 1 @ 4
US Force: 2 @ 3, 1 @ 4
Total force: 5@3, 2 @ 4

So to expand it, we have:
(ODDS OF 1 @3 HIT * ODDS OF 0 @4 HIT) + (ODDS OF 0 @3 HIT * ODDS OF 1 @4 HIT)
(5*(1/2)^5 * (1/3)^2) + (1/2)^5 * 2*(2/3)(1/3)
.0016/9 + .013889 = .0141 = 1.41%

@VictoryFirst Update to this. The calculator on this very site (http://calc.axisandallies.org/) already does most of what you are looking for (“simulates combat 10,000 times and checks number of times a certain number of hits have been scored”). You might want to look into using that unless there is some other functionality you need.

@VictoryFirst Re: TUV calculator:
I can work on something for this later this week or this weekend. I’ll let you know.