Posts made by dinosaur

Me too.  We were using one supply token for every ship sent and only sending them during the resupply phase.  We were spending huge amounts of money getting ships onto the board.  No wonder our game was dragging on way past turn five.

Does combat involving subs only occur in the phase when subs move and shoot?  Does a surface group get to engage a sub during the ship combat step?

My son and I are in the middle of our first game.  I have a large surface group in the middle of the board (sea zone F) between Bourganville and New Georgia.  He moved a sub into sea zone F and began taking pot shots against my surface group each turn.  He attacks during the sub move and shoot step in Phase 1.  Do I get to return fire during the attack sea units step in Phase 2?

Thanks.

This is an interesting game that will take me a few tries to understand.  For example, niether of us bought supply tokens on turn 1 so we couldn’t resupply until turn 2.  That would have been an expensive lesson if we hadn’t both done it.

I looked around online and found a great file for the original AAR map to send to a color plotter at work.  The file had good detail at 36 x 60 and included an edit with the starting position armies printed on the map.  The plot looked great but the local reproduction company wants $3/sq ft to laminate it.  So for doing everything but laminating it, I will be out $45.  This is to give you an idea of what you should expect to pay.  I don’t know how much it should cost to mail something like that, but surely several dollars.  I haven’t used the map yet because I am saving to laminate it.  It does look like it will be much more fun to play on this larger map.  Good Luck, and Merry Christmas!

I agree this does not sound optimal.  Between Germany ans Southern Europe you can deploy all the troops you should need.  It does give you the tactical possibility to deploy a ship directly into the Atlantic, but that does not convince me.  Id rather have 5 infantry or 3 artillery and 1 infantry or something else than the IC.  Also, with some rules, you open Germany up to even more economic losses because rockets can only be launched at IC territories.  I understand the proposals for US/UK and Japanese ICs here or there because of transport logistics, but it doesn’t work for me with Germany or Russia.  -  Merry Christmas!

I will generally agree that in the US folks get what they want; except they often are not being told the truth about what they are buying.  I can’t explain without taking this political so suffice it to say the politicians are lying whenever they sell us a new program.

I am an engineer with an adequate understanding of statistics to solve this problem.  As a matter of fact, I am solving discrete problems of this kind in another thread in AAR forum.  I am using Microsoft Excel to do the work, but there is much work on my part to make it happen.  The longer I play around with it, the more short cuts I discover.

First, there are two things being discussed here.  The OP wants to know the odds.  This is a different thing from a dice simulator.  A dice simulator can be used with some work to compute the odds, but would have to be used with much care to do so.  Computing the odds though, can be done in a direct calculation if you understand the tricks.

There are two steps.  The hard step is developing the permutations tree that must be completed to establish the possible outcomes that must be computed.  After this step, the probabilities must then be computed.  For naval battles with subs, this becomes even more difficult.  Also, loaded transports is a problem.  But lets skip all that and stick with the basics.  (Note:  The good thing about these problems though is that naval battles involve many fewer units, and this helps keep the permutations down.)

If two units attack two defenders, there are eight outcomes that must be considered.  This comes from the calculation that two defenders may get one of three outcomes (0 hits, 1 hit & 2 hits) and the attackers as well have three outcomes.  This produces 3 x 3 = 9, except we must subtract 1 because no attacker hits and no defender hits is a non event.  This is how I get eight permutations.  Representing the permutations visually we can see …

X  A  B
C  D  E
F  G  H

Where X is a non-event.

“A” might be one attacker gets hit by a defender, “B” is both attacker get hit by defenders without hitting the defenders at all.  “C” would be the defender misses, “D” the defenders get one hit on the attackers, and “E” is where both defenders hit the attackers while the attackers get one hit on the defenders.  The last line, “F, G, H” represent no hits, one hit and two hits on the attackers while the attackers deliver two hits themselves.  But if you think that is fun, you need to recognize that in cases A, C & D, the atacker gets to decide if he would like to proceed.  In the end, you can arrive at F, by passing through C; you can arrive at G by passing through A, C or D (or some combinations of these); and you can arrive at other states, B, E and H by passing though others as above.

To develop the whole odds calculator for this simple battle, you have to study the original 3 x 3, and 2 - 2 x 3s and one more 2 x 2, eliminating the non events.

Now that we have the permutations, we can do the probabilities.  This is where Pascal’s triangle comes into play, and where I will end my version of the explanation until I have more time.

Note:  I made this post to give another explanation of the ideas involved in case some found the earlier discussions confusing.  There were earlier discussions that were very accurate and I want to point out that I am not correcting these earlier posts.  I am only trying to explain the ideas using a new approach in hopes that some will better connect with my approach to the ideas.  This is a wonderful game and I am using it to teach my son math while he enjoys the lessons.  I am even painting the game pieces to keep him all the more interested.  After all, not everyone enjoys math as much as I.  -  Merry Christmas

I computed the “value” of attacking Belorussia and here are the results.

The chance of success is pretty high.  If the allies don’t attack when they have less than 2 infantry and 2 fighters, except when the defenders have only 1 infantry defending (the allies attack if they have 1 infantry and 2 fighters or more), the allies win with no losses 15% of the time, losing only 1 infantry 31.5% of the time, losing 2 infantry and capturing the territory 24% of the time and unfortunate results for the remaining 29.5% of the time.  These first three get an additional 2 points for income received at the end of the turn.  In table form the results are:

14.96% Germans eliminated (+9 IPC), no Russian Loses (-0 IPC) & gain territory (+2 IPC) = +1.646
31.45% Germans eliminated (+9 IPC), 1 Russian inf lost (-3 IPC) & gain territory (+2 IPC) = +2.516
24.15% Germans eliminated (+9 IPC), 2 Russian inf lost (-6 IPC) & gain territory (+2 IPC) = +1.208
6.13% Germans eliminated (+9 IPC), 3 Russian inf lost (-9 IPC) = +0.000
0.02% Germans eliminated (+9 IPC), 3 Russian inf lost & 1 Russian fighter lost (-19 IPC) = -0.002
3.94% 2 German inf lost (+6 IPC), 3 Russian inf lost (-9 IPC) = -0.118
0.08% 2 German inf lost (+6 IPC), 3 Russian inf lost & 1 Russian fighter lost (-19 IPC) = -0.010
11.85% 1 German inf lost (+3 IPC), 2 Russian inf lost (-6 IPC) = -0.356
2.51% 1 German inf lost (+3 IPC), 3 Russian inf lost (-9 IPC) = -0.151
0.11% 1 German inf lost (+3 IPC), 3 Russian inf lost & 1 Russian fighter lost (-19 IPC) = -0.018
3.91% no German losses (0 IPC), 2 Russian inf lost (-6 IPC) = -0.235
0.83% no German losses (0 IPC), 3 Russian inf lost (-9 IPC) = -0.075
0.05% no German losses (0 IPC), 3 Russian inf lost & 1 Russian fighter lost (-19 IPC) = -0.010

Adding all these together, the total value is 4.40 IPCs.  Since all of the worst results occur after the first roll of the dice, the Russian player may choose not to risk the fighter under any circumstances, but mathmatically it can be justified sometimes.  One reason I like this attack is that it is a clear win in any of the first three options and they score 70.5% of the chances.  Next I will post the statistics for the West Russia attack and see how that scores.  I may also score some of Cmdr Jennifer’s options to see how they stack up.  I will definately analyze the attack on Ukraine in R1.

Can someone explain the statistical difference between LL and ADS?  What makes LL different from ADS?  How would these vary from regular dice over time?

I think you may have missed my point earlier.  If Great Britan pulls back from India to support Africa, then you are giving the Japanese player another 3 IPCs each turn 'cause he will take India with little to no resistence.  Instead of swaping with Japan by fighting back-and-forth (India-FIC), you will be swapping back-and-forth (India-Persia) at best.  The accumulation of 3 IPCs every turn coupled with their total domination of the IO will easily pay for an IC in FIC and you will likely face two Japanese ICs on mainland Asia instead of only one.  Their eventual momentum in Asia from this could give them better chances to partake of some Africa.  Am I missing something in all this?

It seems to me this strategy, of placing an IC in South Africa and then pulling the British forces from South Asia to bolster Africa, would be answered by a Japanese IC in FIC (French Indo-China).  Now the Japanese have an easier time there which may even accommodate more Japanese opportunities into Africa.  If so, by countering the Germans, you encourage the Japanese.  Does this sound plausible?

I would be interested in seeing alternatives to this R1, but to evaluate them I would need specific unit counts and things.  One reason for my choice of this move is to protect Russia’s offensive pieces.  I also viewed the videos once, and he made the point very clearly that Russia could not afford to lose his heavy pieces.  This is why I have all Russias tanks stacked with so much (comparatively) infantry.  In another variation, I used to fly Russia’s fighters back to Russia, but that was before I started considering something other than 8 inf as Russia’s first buy.  I believe I noted this play used in another forum game here so I am not thinking I have “discovered” anything.  I am still working on the results table and hope to get those numbers here soon.  Thanks.  -  dinosaur

I have been studying this game off and on for about a year as my son’s interest waxes and wanes.  I played RISK way back and this is sort of a RISK on 'ROIDS, if you get my meaning.  Because the starting positions are fairly fixed (except for bid variations), I am trying to come up with a fairly solid strategy for the Allies for my son so I can play the Axis and see how it goes.  Against my son, I’m trying to play no-bid axis, technologies but no national advantages.  However, for this discussion, I’d like to discuss the opening turns without technology in the game.

My thoughts for the opening turn for Russia are as follows …
Buy 5 inf, 1 arty, 1 tank

Atk Belorussia (3 inf)
… 3 inf, 1 ftr from Karelia & 1 ftr from Russia (3 inf, 2 ftr) <-total

Atk West Russia (3 inf, 1 arty, 1 tank)
… 2 inf, 1 tank from Archangel, 3 inf, 1 arty, 2 tank from Russia, 2 inf, 1 arty, 1 tank from Caucasus (7 inf, 2 arty, 4 tank)

I’ll post the predicted results after I have computed them.  But for now, assume the Germans get a little luck and:
Russians take Belorussia with 1 inf and 2 ftr remaining
Russians take West Russia with 4 inf, 2 arty and 4 tank remaining

The Russians NC move
the sub to SZ 2
1 inf from Archangel to Karelia SSR
2 inf from Kazakh SSR to Persia
2 inf from Novosibirsk to Sinkiang
2 inf from Evenki NO to Novosibirsk
2 inf from Yakut SSR to Novosibirsk
2 inf from Soviet Far East to Buryatia SSR
2 ftr from Belorussia to Caucasus

Placement 2 inf, 1 arty, 1 tank on Caucasus (3 inf, 1 arty, 1 tank, 2 ftr)
Placement 3 inf on Russia (3 inf)
Karelia SSR (1 inf)
Archangel (mt)
Belorussia (1 inf)
West Russia (7 inf, 2 arty, 4 tank)
others as above

Collect 28 IPC (28 IPC)

Germany goes to bat.

In this position, I think Germany would consolidate most of its power on East Europe and only risk a small group on Belorussia.  I guess Germany could take Karelia using the troops on Norway and possibly help from Germany by using the transport.  Of course, the UK Battleship gets killed in the Med and the Germans take Egypt while destroying the destroyer in the Med.  The Germans are probably bidding and receiving an extra tank in Africa.  The Germans are likely to buy an aircraft carrier and a stack of infantry.  (you have to consider the response to understand the value of a previous turn)

Also, what problems will the Japanese make for Russia if they decide to go with 4 inf on Buryatia and nobody on Soviet Far East?

Let me know if you see a stronger opening move for Russia.  I joined this board because you folks appear to have the most active group for this sort of discussion.  Thanks.  -  dinosaur