Posts made by dinosaur

That’s not bad too.

8 Inf hits = (1/3)^8 = 1/6561  ~  0.00015
7 Inf hits = 8 x (2/3) x (1/3)^7 = 16/6561  ~  0.00244
6 Inf hits = 28 x (2/3)^2 x (1/3)^6 = 112/6561  ~  0.01707
5 Inf hits = 56 x (2/3)^3 x (1/3)^5 = 448/6561  ~  0.06828
4 Inf hits = 70 x (2/3)^4 x (1/3)^4 = 1120/6561  ~  0.17071
3 Inf hits = 56 x (2/3)^5 x (1/3)^3 = 1792/6561  ~  0.27313
2 Inf hits = 28 x (2/3)^6 x (1/3)^2 = 1792/6561  ~  0.27313
1 Inf hit = 8 x (2/3)^7 x (1/3) = 1024/6561 ~ 0.15607
0 Inf hits = (2/3)^8 = 256/6561  ~  0.03902

Your result was to kill 40 IPCs of armor with the predicted result that you should kill 13.333 IPCs of armor.  This is quite a result because it is better than three standard deviations from the mean.  As you can see from the first fraction, you should not roll this well for another 6560 combat rounds (do you think this might be about 30 games?).  Actually that is an incorrect statement.  Just because you did it, doesn’t have any effect on when it will happen next.

Your opponent didn’t do that bad either.

8 Armor hits = (1/2)^8 = 1/256  ~  0.00391
7 Armor hits = 8 x (1/2)^7 x (1/2) = 8/256  ~  0.03125
6 Armor hits = 28 x (1/2)^8 = 28/256  ~  0.10938
5 Armor hits = 56 x (1/2)^8 = 56/256  ~  0.21875
4 Armor hits = 70 x (1/2)^8 = 70/256  ~  0.27343
3 Armor hits = 56 x (1/2)^8 = 56/256  ~  0.21875
2 Armor hits = 28 x (1/2)^8 = 28/256  ~  0.10937
1 Armor hit = 8 x (1/2)^8 = 8/256  ~  0.03125
0 Armor hits = (1/2)^8 = 1/256  ~  0.00391

He still got a 75th percentile result, which I’d take any day.  He killed 15 IPCs of infantry with the par result being 12.0 IPCs.  With 8 tanks going up against 8 infantry defending, I think the overall “par result” is to lose 5/6 tanks while killing all the infantry.

Statistically, you suffered a tsunami of bad luck.  You shouldn’t have lost more than 2 carriers, but these things happen.  Even with the really bad luck, I bet you still won the game.

Lets see … (1/3)^4 = 1/81 ~ 0.0125  … 4 KK hits
…  4 x (2/3)(1/3)^3 = 8/81 ~ 0.100  … 3 KK hits
…  6 x (2/3)^2(1/3)^2 = 24/81 ~ 0.296  … 2 KK hits
…  4 x (2/3)^3*(1/3) = 32/81 ~ 0.395  … 1 KK hit
…  (2/3)^4 = 16/81 ~ 0.198  … 0 KK hits

Kamikazies can really hurt at the wrong time, but they aren’t supposed to hurt like that.

The real questions have to do with things like,

What if the Japanese never made the first agressive act of WWII?  How long before the US would have entered the war?

What if the Japanese had waited until the summer of 1942 to bomb Pearl, etc.?

What if Adm Nagumo had gone back for a serious second strike?

So, I think this would be a more interesting topic if you asked “What if the Japanese had attacked Russia and not the US at Pearl and the PI, etc.?”

Having said all that, I believe the Japanese had little to gain by antagonizing a second Asian power.  Also, the US was going to enter WWII sometime in 1942 anyway.  Japan (and Germany’s declaration of war on the US) just made the politics simpler.

Oh yea, baby!

I got my dice and now I just  got one question …

When will you have Chinese and Aussie dice on the street for AAP.

The dice look great.  I can use my black dice for AA fire, but I want the others ASAP for AAP!

Great job.

I haven’t played a game like this either, but I don’t have anyone to play with except my son, so I am effectively playing myself.  I have always played a kind of balanced game.  I agree the supply chain for Japan to New Georgia is a handicap for the allies.  It seems to me there is enough balance that this shouldn’t break the game, but I should check it out before saying much more here.  I figure there are three options for the allies.  Take New Georgia or Choiseul, Bomb airfields on New Georgia or Choiseul, Take out the main Japanese Fleet.  Of these, bombing an airfield on Choiseul or New Georgia sounds pretty attractive.  It seems the Japanese will be hard pressed to defend both.  Have all these strategies survived your playtesting?  If the Japanese are buying this many supply tokens, the US should have some benefit elsewhere.  On the other hand, assuming the US build four airfields themselves, they only have four production points more than the Japanese, which isn’t enough to buy an extra bomber.  I don’t know.  It sounds interesting.  I just can’t believe they would have missed this in the playtesting before release.

I would rather folks not discuss global warming here at A&A.org because I like the folks here and I appreciate what I learn about the games and all that.  I fear that your differences of opinion will manifest itself in other threads and then I won’t enjoy those other topics as much.

Jen, I think you know I am no fan of “man made global warming” or what ever it is called, but I don’t think your argument that the planets alignment will cause phenomenal destruction is sound.  As I recall, the effect of a mass on another mass is proportional to the mass, but inversely proportional to the square of the distance between them.  The moon has a profound effect on earth because it is extremely close by the standards of space where most distances are measured in light-years.  The sun also has a profound effect on us because its mass is greater than we can really comprehend.  The mass of the other planets combined with their distances away from us probably cause very little net effects on us.  I haven’t studied this carefully, but I do recall most of my basic physics and I just don’t think this is as big a deal as some would claim.  If you have a source that counters my opinion, I would like to check into it.

Anyway, I hope everyone here can be amicable in the other fora even if we have such strongly held views elsewhere.

If you don’t mind the publicity, there is a play be forum option here.  Folks have a dice rolling utility that works automatically.  Check out some of the other fora here and you will see some options.  There are some “dedicated” players here and you might want to see if there is a “minor league” if you’re just getting into it.  OTOH, you can learn a lot from the serious generals.  I’m not that serious a player, but I really like the games.  I use them to teach my son about math, history, geography and sportsmanship.  Enjoy.

It sounds like you didn’t get the Phillipines on J1.  From my experience, taking Aus and Ind on J3 is an a-symetrical result.  You shouldn’t be able to repeat that often.  Did you get some great dice in that game?  I am curious.  Still, it is great when the plan works.  My experience with Japan isn’t anything like you describe.  Congrats.

My earliest presidential memory was Nixon beating McGovern by a landslide.

Good Job.

I have been working on some probability problems myself, but I use spreadsheets and do the calculations in a sort of assisted longhand mode.  Then I print tables of results for different situations.  I have a thread in AAG with an example of my results.

If we had a straightforward 1/3-2/3 hit rule or something like that, then we would have a very simple calculation that resembles the battles for Risk.  But because our “to-hit” chances change for the units, things get much more involved.  And then to top it all off, the defender gets to decide what to remove.  This isn’t too difficult in most land battles, but becomes involved in sea battles.  And then sometimes we get anti-aircraft artillery.  All this makes the probabilities in A&A very complex.

In my opinion, there would probably be a limit where the probabilities could be precomputed, and everything below say 20 units is stored in a matrix for recall later.  Then, only battles with more than 20 units on a side would get a calculation.  These would be resolved down to the 20 unit level, and the matrix results would be applied below that.  Unfortunately, the fact the defender chooses losses may foil this approach.

Ultimately, I hope to even have the calculation tell the attacker when he should stop attacking and withdraw.  In every battle, there comes a point when the attacker has taken such ridiculous losses, he shoul withdraw.  I’d like the program to indicate this in the result.

Heck, if I’m a dinosaur and there are two fellows older than me here, they must be dirt.  The rest of y’all are just a bunch of whipper-snappers.

Your observation about subs survivability is accurate though.  I think subs are not adequately represented in this regard.  However, fixing this may lead to “huge sub stacks” which would be neither fun nor historically accurate.  This appears to be one thing we just have to live with.  Taking out a carrier is worth a risk too even at 1/6 odds, because a single victory point might just do the trick for you.  I wouldn’t go after a battleship in most cases with a sub because of the “first hit ignore” rule.

I am a little confused about the earlier answer.  Supply tokens are only used to deploy units (and I think this may be limited to ships only, but I’d have to check the game rules again) at the end of a turn from the base card.  If an aircraft carrier deploys, it may take two fighters along for the ride.  If a transport or destroyer deploys, it may take a land unit(s).  Otherwise, units are “deployed” from the base card during normal movement.  Of course, supply tokens are also used to build and repair airfields.

One neat trick might be (if you had an abundance of fighters) to deploy a carrier with two fighters, then move those two fighters forward and bring two other fighters on the board from the base card.  At the end of your turn, if you have forward operating airfields, land the carrier’s fighters there and land the base card fighters on the carriers.  Even if your fighters are lost in combat, you still are able to land the base card fighters on the carrier for use next turn in forward areas.

Enjoy.

Well, the beauty of having both sets is you have enough Hellcats to play with only Hellcats.  I don’t mind using both planes, but I only use the navy planes on the carriers.

I’ll go with Chesty Puller, USMC.

1911 for me, and a luger to take home and show the kids.

Here are a few shots of the armys.

http://www.mediafire.com/imageview.php?quickkey=oty1mzd5mma&thumb=4   …  The Russians in a light brown

http://www.mediafire.com/imageview.php?quickkey=4yj5wjvjza1&thumb=4   …  The Germans in a pale grey

Note, the German boots are in gloss black, not flat black.

http://www.mediafire.com/imageview.php?quickkey=jnb0ymwbifi&thumb=4   …  The UK army

The medium green is intended for temperate weather troops such as continental Europe or the Aussies.  The Armor Sand color troops are for the tropical weather troops such as Africa, India and Borneo.  I decided I should leave the tanks and artillery in Armor Sand exclusively to avoid confusion with the US forces.  Because they are the same mold, I think there isn’t enough difference between my OD green (US) and the medium green (UK) to avoid confusion in the game.  I could have painted the UK forces with some medium green and then used brown for the wheels and tracks, rather than the Navy Grey I use for the same things on the US pieces.

http://www.mediafire.com/imageview.php?quickkey=nkxrmitmi1m&thumb=4   … The Japanese army

I may even paint some troops of the IJN in the brighter IJN green giving me three colors of Japanese ground troops.  I also expect to paint a few Zeros and Bettys with IJN green.

http://www.mediafire.com/imageview.php?quickkey=mzd9gyoltdg&thumb=4   … The Americans and a Chinese soldier

I also added a regular soldier for comparison in each of the army photos.

In answer to ILs question, I decided on the colors “on the fly.”  I knew I wanted to paint Japanese ships and Zeros first.  So, off to the hobby story I went for some after Christmas shopping (he, he).  I looked over the paint and decided I needed Sand, Red, Aluminum and Navy Grey.  While I was figuring that out, I saw the color Armor Sand.  I thought to myself, that’s what I need for the Africa forces of te UK.  Then, before I left, I added Wood and Leather, two browns they were selling also.  I have returned twice to buy other colors, first for the US, and then another trip for Germany and Russia.  I am not trying to match any particular colors, but just trying to get the right feel for what I want.  These are not dioramas or anything like that, they are just game pieces.  I just want to add interest for my son.

One note you will see if you look closely at the photos.  The paint is fairly soft, and the molding process leaves a finish that is not best for the paint.  The paint has started to come off on the corners a bit.  It isn’t a big deal but keep that in mind.  I suspect there is someone out there that may know a pretreatment that would help the paint adhere to the soldiers even better.

Here is a collection of pictures to look over the navy color schemes.  The first shows four countries, and then one photo each for the US,  Japanese, UK and German navy.  I only have one Russian sub painted right now so there is no point in showing you a little brown sub.  I accidently put a UK sub in the US photo.  The correct US sub would have the same colors as the other US warships.

http://www.mediafire.com/imageview.php?quickkey=xyymjb3dpit&thumb=4   …  Four navy fleets

http://www.mediafire.com/imageview.php?quickkey=9izzo14h2ew&thumb=4   …  the US fleet

I’ll tell you about the Hellcats and Corsairs later.  I got these when we only had AAR because I couldn’t stand the P38s on the carriers.  The hulls and superstructure are Navy Grey and the decks are “wood”.

http://www.mediafire.com/imageview.php?quickkey=2m2s1ydiwvr&thumb=4   …  The Japanese fleet

It does take time to paint the Japanese aircraft with 4 colors, but I think they look nice.

http://www.mediafire.com/imageview.php?quickkey=0z2o45mlk01&thumb=4   …  The UK fleet

Later, I may even paint some Spitfires with a “Camo” scheme using green and brown, but I’ll wait till I can find some insignia for the wings before I go there.

http://www.mediafire.com/imageview.php?quickkey=byxeolzbxhe&thumb=4   …  The German fleet

I liked the aluminum so well, I used it yet again on the Germans.  I tried to paint the little crosses but they are not very clean.  I’ll need either a templet or a decal or something.

Here is my box of goodies from combining most of the AAG set with the AAP set.  Since I can play both games from the same box of pieces, I figured this was the right way to go.  As you can see, I still have a loooong way to go to finish painting these pieces.

http://www.mediafire.com/imageview.php?quickkey=wnyldxjfce5&thumb=4

In China, things look a little strange.  Yes, the pieces are not painted, but they didn’t come from A&A either.  These are some of my son’s soldiers again and they will be painted a brown color with other detail added.  When I find out the brand of this toy, I’ll let y’all know.  You can get a lot of extra soldiers this way for very little investment.  These add a little variety too, and I didn’t want to use little red Russians for my Chinese army in the 1940s.

http://www.mediafire.com/imageview.php?quickkey=njyfu9jgxy1&thumb=4

A collection of IJN fleet photos.  This is where I started.  Some other fellow painted his IJN ships and his Zeros.  I liked what he did so much, I got my son’s stuff out and went to work on his fleet and planes.  I still haven’t decided if I want to paint the superstructures of the IJN cargo ships yet.  I tried painting them Sand, but that didn’t look right.  I may try the pale grey I use for the Germans.

http://www.mediafire.com/imageview.php?quickkey=tlm1bixtijn&thumb=4

http://www.mediafire.com/imageview.php?quickkey=taesdxkthbx&thumb=4

http://www.mediafire.com/imageview.php?quickkey=nbdtxrdej9x&thumb=4