Hello GHG,
If the Americans scramble their 2 fighters in Hawaii against the Japanese invasion fleet, then a sea battle is created, and the previously ignored American subs can enter the battle if they choose (they can also submerge and stop participating at any point in the battle since the Japanese do not have any destroyers in the battle).
The sea battle involves an attacking Japanese carrier, 2 cruisers, and 3 transports against the defending 2 American fighters and 2 subs (if they choose to participate, which they probably will given that this battle determines the outcome of the entire game). The American submarines get a first strike attack as long as they’re in the battle, since the Japanese have no destroyers. These could damage or kill the Japanese carrier or cruisers without them being able to fire back (except if the Japanese carrier is only damaged). The result of the battle may greatly affect the Japanese turn:
The Japanese will win the battle if they can kill the 2 American fighters and either sink the American submarines or have them submerge, which is unlikely since this is a critical battle. If the Japanese lose their 2 cruisers while killing the 2 American fighters, then the Japanese can’t win the battle, since they would only have a carrier with 0 attack and non-combat transports, all of which will eventually be sunk by the defending American submarines if the Japanese do not retreat. Thus, Japan must in fact kill both fighters and both submarines. Note that the Japanese cannot kill both American fighters and then choose to ignore any remaining American subs. They must sink both subs and both fighters. Even if they do this, the cruisers can no longer bombard Hawaii, so it will be up to the 6 ground units and the Japanese planes to kill the American land units on Hawaii. With 6 land units and 7 planes against 8 infantry, this is still very likely. Thus, if Japan manages to win the sea battle, they will likely capture Hawaii and thus win the game. However, if in the sea battle the Japanese carrier is damaged or sunk, then the 2 Japanese planes attacking Hawaii with only 1 move left will be forced to die if they survive the battle. After the battle, the surviving Japanese planes with 2 movement could land on the carriers off Midway, and the one with 3 movement could land on Midway itself.
However, a FUBAR will occur if the Japanese lose the sea battle. This will occur if they lose both cruisers and if any American units are left in the sea zone. At this point, retreating from the sea zone is the best option, since each round the battle is continued with a carrier and transports unable to attack is another round they could be killed by the American units. If such a retreat occurs, the surviving Japanese ships (the carrier if still alive and any transports) would have to retreat one space away to a sea zone at least one of the original attackers originated in (even if the attacking ship in question was sunk). This nullifies the ground unit landing on Hawaii, but the 7 planes will be forced to attack Hawaii for at least 1 round, leading to the probable loss of a couple of planes. After the first round of such a battle, the Japanese would be well advised to retreat, since they can’t capture Hawaii with just planes and trading planes for infantry is a bad idea. In this case, since the Japanese carrier was forced to retreat (if it wasn’t sunk), the Japanese planes in Hawaii with 1 move left no longer have anywhere to land (if they survived the 1 round of the battle of Hawaii), so they will be forced to ditch in the ocean. The Japanese planes with 2 moves can again land on the 2 carriers off Midway, and the Japanese planes with 3 moves can land on Midway itself.
The retreating transports will still have their troops on board, and cannot land them onto a friendly island. Thus, they are vulnerable to being sunk by a surviving American fighter or submarine unless they are protected by other Japanese ships. If the Japanese sufficiently protect these transports, they may be able to try invading Hawaii again next turn, this time no doubt bringing enough forces to win both the sea and the land battle, if possible. However, the US will do all in its power to prevent this from happening again, now that they are alerted.
Thanks,
calvinhobbesliker
