Posts made by Butcher

If everything goes well, you will be in a good spot against Russia. However, if your attacks fail, you will cost yourself the game. Britain can land at France U.K.1 either way, and if something goes wrong in the north (i.e. transport survives attacks, which I have seen happen, or the Red October sinks the German cruiser) Britain can retake Karelia. You will be very vulnerable to the Western Allies.

The probability of everything going in your favor isn’t very good. As Pin said earlier, you will have about a 45% chance of winning all of your battles. If you want any more info on statistics, here is a thread where Pin and I have gone into detail about it http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=14841.0

In the end, there is no set way to do anything after G1, and to an extent, J1. You can go into the game with an idea of what you want to do, but you must be responsive to what happens in the game. I’m not saying that going south is always the best move, but that it can be supported by both of the other Axis nations, and is my preference when Germany goes on a large offensive.

By the way, I normally play a more conservative Germany and let Japan kill Russia. I see Germany’s job as trading territories to maintain a decent income and bleed away Russian troops while Japan gets to Caucuses. That is why I’ve never attacked Karelia G1. It is just an attempt at a quick push to Moscow that will leave German defenses weak.

Ultimately, a strong move south is easier to support than a northern attack. If going south, you can have immediate Italian reinforcements, and Japan should be to Persia by turn 4, maybe 5 at the latest.

Going north means Germany is on her own, while the U.K. can reinforce Russia.
Only take the northern route mid-game if it will help you.

Egypt offers more benefits than risks. Even if you don’t take Egypt G1, Italy will have an easier time getting income and being useful.

And if you set up a G2 attack on Karelia, Russia will either leave it with one infantry and set up a counter, or stack if heavily. If it has only 1 inf, take it with 2 inf and air support. If they stack it, the southern front will be weak, and exploit that.

Comic relief. It can suck to be Russia some games.

@Corbeu blanc,

There is a big difference in attacking Egypt versus attacking Karelia. Karelia can be retaken by the Russians or, depending on other battles, British. Egypt cannot be reasonably retaken. Egypt is part of two NO’s, one for Italy and one for Britain. Taking that money puts the U.K. in a hole really early, and helps little brother grow up. You can’t start taking African IPC’s soon enough. Finally, it helps clear Japan’s way by preventing those units from joining the Trans-Jordan and Indian units in Persia. Egyptian units can’t be easily replaced, while Karelian units can.

Most of the time, if I put Egypt off, I end up regretting it. I know there are pros and cons, but that’s just my preference.

Well, it is pretty likely given they were d1’s  :wink:

Yeah, it is supposed to be 5/36 + 5/36, and I have fixed it. Sorry for any confusion.

You must end with one number when finding the odds of one outcome.

I cannot stress this enough. Breaking the attacks into two sets does not change anything. You will still be multiplying the same numbers together.

What you are looking at, Adler, is one outcome because you want all six to succeed.

And there is absolutely no coincidence to this resembling G1 attacks…  :roll:

It is a more complicated process.

Say the six battles have odds of 95%, 83%, 89%, 97%, 92%, and 80%.

To find the odds of all six, multiply them together
0.95 x 0.83 x 0.89 x 0.97 x 0.92 x 0.80 = 0.501 = 50.1%

To find the odds of say, five battles working, you find the odds for every way the set of battles could go (there are six ways to win 5 battles out of the six)

0.05 x 0.83 x 0.89 x 0.97 x 0.92 x 0.80 = 0.026 = 2.6%

0.95 x 0.17 x 0.89 x 0.97 x 0.92 x 0.80 = 0.103 = 10.3%

0.95 x 0.83 x 0.11 x 0.97 x 0.92 x 0.80 = 0.062 = 6.2%

0.95 x 0.83 x 0.89 x 0.03 x 0.92 x 0.80 = 0.015 = 1.5%

0.95 x 0.83 x 0.89 x 0.97 x 0.08 x 0.80 = 0.044 = 4.4%

0.95 x 0.83 x 0.89 x 0.97 x 0.92 x 0.20 = 0.125 = 12.5%

So now you add the probabilities together

2.6% + 10.3% + 6.2% + 1.5% + 4.4% + 12.5% = 37.5%

That is the probability that you will win exactly 5 of your attacks.

To find the probability that you will win 5 or 6, you must add the probability of winning 5 to the probability of winning 6.

50.1% + 37.5% = 87.6%

You have an 87.6% chance of winning 5 or 6 of your attacks.

Yeah, I guess I should have elaborated. You would just add the probability of 1 hit to the probability of 2 hits to find the probability of 1 or 2 hits.

For attacks that you need at least one hit out of x dice, you should just subtract the probability that you will get no hits from 1. For example, let’s say that 2 inf and 1 fig are attacking 1 inf.

Odds that the attackers miss all hits in 1st round: 5/6 x 5/6 x 1/2 = 25/72

1 - 25/72 =  47/72 = 65.3% chance the battle is over after the first round.

Subracting the odds of a miss from 1 can help speed up a FTF game.

And Pin, you can put anything I post in this thread in an article. I posted in it because it reminded me of my Government teacher, “For all you mathletes out there…”

I feel it would be worth saying how to calculate the odds of getting x hits out of y dice. I’ll use 2 dice having to land at a one as an example.

There are 2 possible ways to have one 1 showing. Die A is a 1 and Die B is something 2-6 or Die A is something 2-6 and Die B is a 1.

You then find the odds of each event happening.
Die A is a 1: 1/6 x 5/6 = 5/36
Die B is a 1: 5/6 x 1/6 = 5/36

And you then add the two probabilities to find the total.
5/36 + 5/36 = 10/36 = 5/18 = 27.8% chance that you will land one hit.

I hope this helps.

Hello Emperor Mollari,

I will create a thread for a game then. I’ll make Germany’s first turn, and feel free to correct any formatting errors I make.

Hi,

After visiting these boards for a few months I would finally like to try a PBF game. I have ABattlemap, and was wondering if somebody would like to play a game with me to help me get started. I would like to play '41, w/NO’s, no bid, either side, and your choice on tech. I would just like a friendly game to learn how everything works.

Butcher

Do you set up for an attack against Karelia on G2 that the Soviet Union can’t defend? I normally set up a G2 attack, but I find that it limits other options (i.e. bomber can’t be used to attack SZ2). I was just wondering if the income in a NO game makes setting up the attack worth it, along with preventing Russia from building there for a turn.

The issue isn’t Japan not having enough money, it is Germany and Italy not having enough time. With a large Persia stack, the allies don’t have to spend much on slowing Japan as by the time they reach Persia. Japan will be running out of units, and will have to build up/transport units for a turn or two.

What happens if Britain pulls the Egypt units back on U.K.1 and forms a Persia stack by combining those units with the 3 infantry, artillary, and AA from India? Thinning that stack at Egypt, if not eliminating it, allows Japan to get past Persia much quicker and threaten the Soviets.

We play with NO’s and tech rolls, and my normal partner and I spend most of the money in the Atlantic. We move the SZ44 off the west coast and build three subs there turn one. Then we usually put one into each of SZ58, SZ52, and SZ46. On the second turn we buy a couple subs. Japan will have to avoid moving unescorted carriers in range of the subs, and will need to use a lot of forces to kill the subs.  If they attack any of the subs, the counter would be 3-4 subs, a carrier, a destroyer, 3-4 fighters and a bomber.

In Atlantic, our plans often change. We either buy mostly transports and link up with the British navy after they take France while helping hold France or we attack the Italian navy.

Sorry Octopus, I didn’t finish reading your entire post  :roll:

What is Poland being held with? A tank dash would be going straight through Poland without ever stopping there. So droping a small ground force could screw up the tank dash long enough for Russia to hold out. You can land one transport worth of ground units there on turn 2 if needed.

Should we assume that you mean SZ9 instead of SZ3, because SZ3 starts empty?  :?

I leave SZ9 alone and attack Egypt without a bomber and have Italy take it I1.