this is why we need a battlemap module! Stoney please save us lol.
Couple of things i think people are missing as options.
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Control of Gibralter. There are many ways for germany to get boats into the med. If both G and I have boats in the med and transports, they can continually trade gibralter to prevent the allies from entering the med.
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Airpower. With the airbase in france the germans can hit nearly any of the med sea zones. You start with 8 planes vs 1 US boat, and a handful of UK boats (even less if they send the carrier into the med). You should be able to purchase around 3 planes on G2, and continue to purchase atleast 2 a turn if not more afterward. This will prevent the allies from coming at you in force.
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Victory conditions. Axis need 14 VCs. Japan can easily have 7 by turn 4 or 5 if ignored by the allies. The germans/italians start with control of 3 and gain a 4th from paris. That leaves 3 remaining. Japan should be able to secure Egypt and possibly even stalingrad or even LA if ignored, meaning germans only need to take leningrad for the win.
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Good for the goose, good for the gander. Japan has more planes to send to europe than the UK. Sikang to Romania is the quickest route i can see, and should be doable by turn 5ish I would assume. Japan can also simply build nearly 7-8 a turn to continue to do this.