It comes down to a trade, a trade of 1 UK carrier, cruiser, destroyer and 1-2 planes to kill an Italian BB, Cruiser, and transport, and the german planes used in the counter attack. It is a trade because Germany should kill that fleet on the following turn at the cost of some planes. Is it a good trade? I don’t think so, as it means the Germans have no fear of any landings until turn 4 at the earliest in Europe.
If instead you retreat that carrier/destroyer to canada, combine it with some more ships built turn 1 (possibly another carrier, transport, and possibly a destroyer) and turn 2 you may have enough fleet to threaten a drop in Europe depending on the sea lion threat. And on turn 3 you should be able to nab Norway. Not to mention how many fewer warships the US will need and the larger quantity of transports/troops they can build.
Yes you slow down Italy, but in that area of the board Japan is the real threat, not Italy. In addition, Italy is already vulnerable to begin with against the US. And lastly, even without expanding beyond a 15 IPC income Italy is still a huge help as that’s 5 men helping to defend the coast, potential can opener troops, and acts as a magnet/stall for Germany.
I really think the can opener threat is not being truly appreciated in the game. With 4 IPC mech infantry the Germans can really bring the threat. A stack in Ukraine threatens both Stalingrad and Moscow. Combine that with Leningrad falling early, which it should, and you have a huge German income.