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    Posts made by Avin

    • RE: Classic 2nd edition, Avin (Allies) vs AcesWild (Axis), no bid

      I’m curious at the thought behind ditching your antiaircraft gun in Libya. Is it worth exposing yourself to the free bombing raids, just to be able to more easily recapture Southern Europe when I take it?

      Also, I may or may not choose to attack the German fleet on America’s turn. I haven’t decided yet - it’s a tempting target but it depends on what else I think I need to do that turn. If I do attack, it will be with:
      1-2 transports (as cannon fodder)
      1 submarine
      1 battleship
      1 aircraft carrier
      3 fighters
      1 bomber

      If you are able to specify your conditional order of loss in advance then I can do the battle on my own. If you would prefer to wait and provide casualties on demand as I roll the battle, we can do that of course too just with delays for the back and forth. I’d even be willing to video call you on Skype or Google Hangouts or something and we can roll the dice manually if you would prefer to do the battle column by column - if so, let me know what your availability is to do that over the next couple days and what your preferred medium would be.

      posted in Play Boardgames
      A
      Avin
    • RE: Classic 2nd edition, Avin (Allies) vs AcesWild (Axis), no bid

      TripleA Turn Summary: British round 4

      TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Classic, version: 2.0

      Game History

      Round: 4
      
          Purchase Units - British
              British buy 1 fighter and 7 infantry; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; 
      
          Combat Move - British
              1 infantry moved from French Equatorial Africa to Libya
                    British take Libya from Germans
              1 bomber moved from Karelia S.S.R. to South Europe
              1 infantry moved from United Kingdom to North Sea Zone
              1 infantry moved from North Sea Zone to West Europe
      
          Combat - British
              Strategic bombing raid in South Europe
                  Bombing raid in South Europe rolls: 5 and costs: 5 PUs.
                  Bombing raid costs 5 PUs
              Battle in West Europe
                  British attack with 1 infantry
                  Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 8 armour, 1 fighter and 8 infantry
                      British roll dice for 1 battleship in West Europe, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                      British roll dice for 1 infantry in West Europe, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                      Germans roll dice for 8 armour, 1 fighter and 8 infantry in West Europe, round 2 : 7/17 hits, 6.00 expected hits
                      1 infantry owned by the Germans and 1 infantry owned by the British lost in West Europe
                  Germans win with 8 armour, 1 fighter and 7 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                  Casualties for British: 1 infantry
                  Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
      
          Non Combat Move - British
              2 fighters moved from Yakut S.S.R. to East Europe
              1 bomber moved from South Europe to Russia
              4 infantry moved from Finland Norway to Karelia S.S.R.
              1 armour moved from Caucasus to East Europe
              1 transport moved from North Sea Zone to East Canada Sea Zone
              1 armour moved from West Canada to East Canada Sea Zone
              4 infantry moved from United Kingdom to North Sea Zone
              2 infantry moved from United Kingdom to North Sea Zone
              1 armour and 1 transport moved from East Canada Sea Zone to North Sea Zone
              1 armour and 6 infantry moved from North Sea Zone to Finland Norway
              1 fighter moved from Karelia S.S.R. to Novosibirsk
              1 bomber moved from Russia to Novosibirsk
      
          Place Units - British
              1 fighter and 7 infantry placed in United Kingdom
      
          Turn Complete - British
              British collect 30 PUs; end with 32 PUs
      

      Combat Hit Differential Summary :

      Germans : 1.00
      British : 0.17
      

      Savegame

      posted in Play Boardgames
      A
      Avin
    • RE: Axis and Allies Classic 10 part series on YouTube

      Also, I’m not going to argue the point further; I was just trying to point out that until video 9 your disagreement with Don was mostly in rebutting points that you disagreed with, but that video 9 makes you seem a lot more petty, and I was trying to give you the outsider perspective that I feel like it diminishes the rest of your more reasonable criticism. If you don’t see the need to change that then so be it.

      posted in Axis & Allies Classic
      A
      Avin
    • RE: Axis and Allies Classic 10 part series on YouTube

      In video 9 I clearly state, “You’re better off playing your own style, playing against different people and not closing yourself off to other ideas” or words to that affect. So again, I’m not quite sure what you’re talking about.

      This is a perfect example of why I think the condemnation is hypocritical. You are saying that Don’s essays closes people off to other ideas - but in so doing, you are implicitly closing people who take your recommendation off to Don’s ideas and the positive contributions he made to Axis and Allies strategy historically, even if some things are outdated now. The message that comes across is that you are being just as clear cut as 20-years-ago-Don in your own way, just with a different perspective.

      Whatever good comes from those essays can be found out by the players themselves after playing 10-20 games even by players who are starting from 0 experience.

      This is certainly not the case; many thousands of people who had been playing Axis and Allies in local playgroups in the 80s and 90s never discovered for themselves some of the ideas on Don’s essays. Even on these forums there’s a reply in the pinned thread that links to Don’s essays from someone in 2014 who seems to have learned a lot.

      posted in Axis & Allies Classic
      A
      Avin
    • RE: Axis and Allies Classic 10 part series on YouTube

      @AcesWild5049

      That you are mirroring what you are criticizing: in dismissing Don’s essays because of their flaws and his arrogant tone, you are doing the same thing to him that you accuse him of doing. It makes you sound like you are just getting into a pissing match with someone who isn’t even around anymore to rebut you, and thereby diminishes the otherwise sound reasoning you’ve shown.

      posted in Axis & Allies Classic
      A
      Avin
    • RE: Axis and Allies Classic 10 part series on YouTube

      @AcesWild5049 said in Axis and Allies Classic 10 part series on YouTube:

      I hate bids and won’t comment much on that.

      Oh, interesting, I didn’t realize. You say you won’t comment on that, but I am very curious why that is. But perhaps that’s addressed in your final video which I haven’t watched yet.

      Regarding your penultimate video, however, I have to say that I thought you were better than that. I respect you and I have gained insights from your videos even though I disagree with you on a number of points. Yes, I agree with you that Don is unreasonably arrogant and his opinions are flawed, but why should you stoop to the same level in dismissing his essays as you do? You have to recognize that he wrote them around 20 years ago, and both the internet culture in gaming communities as well as the broader grasp of Axis and Allies strategy at the time were very different from where they are now. Don may or may not have been the first to write about some of the things he did; I don’t know actually. But I do recognize him as being the first so widely spread to describe such concepts as the general infantry push mechanics, the Shuck-shuck, the value of strafing, and so on. A lot of what Don says you “must” do is definitely obsolete, but the ideas behind them show a valuable progression from what was out there in terms of strategy advice before.

      You are right to call Don out on the arrogance of his claims and the outdatedness of the strategy, but not any more so than you would be for calling out a 19th century writer discussing Napoleonic strategy on their casual racism and obsolete tactical analysis. As I think I mentioned in this thread early on I recently started playing Axis and Allies with my kids, and I saw no reason to give them Don’s essays to read because I could give strategic advice directly as we were playing, but if I had, the disclaimer I would give would be more along the lines of, “These are some really old essays on Axis and Allies strategy, but there are some good ideas there that you can still learn from even though you should take all Don’s claims with a grain of salt on what you ‘have’ to do. Most people today have come up with a lot of improved strategy that goes beyond it, but this is a good starting point for you if you want to see how strategy has developed over time.”

      posted in Axis & Allies Classic
      A
      Avin
    • RE: Classic 2nd edition, Avin (Allies) vs AcesWild (Axis), no bid

      If it’s all the same to you I’d rather have the UK fighter in Karelia but I’m not too worried about it either way at this point.

      posted in Play Boardgames
      A
      Avin
    • RE: Classic 2nd edition, Avin (Allies) vs AcesWild (Axis), no bid

      Ignore that; I forgot that not all your fighters can even reach it without hitting AA fire, so it’s probably not even an issue.

      posted in Play Boardgames
      A
      Avin
    • RE: Classic 2nd edition, Avin (Allies) vs AcesWild (Axis), no bid

      If you for some reason decide to attack Karelia with all five German fighters, take the UK bomber as a casualty first, then the American bomber, then the Russian troops. If you attack it with less than five fighters, ask me for casualties then but I doubt you would do that.

      I don’t know why I landed that lone British fighter in Russia instead of Karelia given that I knew I would be evacuating most of the troops from Karelia into EEU when I took UK’s last turn but it’s been almost a whole cycle so I don’t mind letting it stand and not asking for a move there.

      posted in Play Boardgames
      A
      Avin
    • RE: Classic 2nd edition, Avin (Allies) vs AcesWild (Axis), no bid

      TripleA Turn Summary: Russians round 4

      TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Classic, version: 2.0

      Game History

      Round: 4
      
          Purchase Units - Russians
              Russians buy 2 armour and 5 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
      
          Combat Move - Russians
              3 armour, 2 fighters and 23 infantry moved from Karelia S.S.R. to East Europe
              2 armour moved from Russia to Mongolia
              1 armour moved from Yakut S.S.R. to Novosibirsk
              1 armour moved from Novosibirsk to Mongolia
              7 infantry moved from Yakut S.S.R. to Mongolia
      
          Combat - Russians
              Battle in Mongolia
                  Russians attack with 3 armour and 7 infantry
                  Japanese defend with 5 infantry
                      Russians roll dice for 3 armour and 7 infantry in Mongolia, round 2 : 4/10 hits, 2.67 expected hits
                      Japanese roll dice for 5 infantry in Mongolia, round 2 : 1/5 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                      4 infantry owned by the Japanese and 1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Mongolia
                  6 infantry owned by the Russians and 3 armour owned by the Russians retreated to Novosibirsk
                  Japanese win with 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 9
                  Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
                  Casualties for Japanese: 4 infantry
      
          Non Combat Move - Russians
              1 transport moved from West Spain Sea Zone to North Sea Zone
              1 aaGun moved from Karelia S.S.R. to East Europe
              3 armour moved from Russia to East Europe
              1 infantry moved from Russia to Kazakh S.S.R.
              1 infantry moved from Russia to Novosibirsk
      
          Place Units - Russians
              2 armour and 2 infantry placed in Karelia S.S.R.
              3 infantry placed in Russia
      
          Turn Complete - Russians
              Russians collect 22 PUs; end with 22 PUs
      

      Combat Hit Differential Summary :

      Russians : 1.33
      Japanese : -0.67
      

      Savegame

      posted in Play Boardgames
      A
      Avin
    • RE: Classic 2nd edition, Avin (Allies) vs AcesWild (Axis), no bid

      TripleA Turn Summary: Americans round 3

      TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Classic, version: 2.0

      Game History

      Round: 3
      
          Purchase Units - Americans
              Americans buy 1 armour, 5 infantry and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 3 PUs; 
      
          Combat Move - Americans
              3 infantry moved from East US to East US Sea Zone
              3 infantry and 3 transports moved from East US Sea Zone to East Canada Sea Zone
              1 transport moved from West Spain Sea Zone to East Canada Sea Zone
              1 bomber moved from French West Africa to Ukraine S.S.R.
              1 infantry moved from Karelia S.S.R. to Ukraine S.S.R.
              1 submarine moved from East US Sea Zone to West Spain Sea Zone
              1 battleship moved from East US Sea Zone to West Spain Sea Zone
              1 carrier moved from East US Sea Zone to West Spain Sea Zone
              1 armour moved from West Canada to East Canada Sea Zone
              1 infantry moved from West Canada to East Canada Sea Zone
              1 infantry moved from West Canada to East Canada Sea Zone
              1 armour, 5 infantry and 4 transports moved from East Canada Sea Zone to West Spain Sea Zone
              1 infantry moved from West Spain Sea Zone to West Europe
              1 armour and 4 infantry moved from West Spain Sea Zone to Algeria
                    Americans take Algeria from Germans
              2 fighters moved from North Sea Zone to Ukraine S.S.R.
      
          Combat - Americans
              Battle in Ukraine S.S.R.
                  Americans attack with 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 1 infantry
                  Germans defend with 1 infantry
                      Americans roll dice for 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 1 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1.83 expected hits
                      Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                      1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                  Americans win, taking Ukraine S.S.R. from Germans with 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                  Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
              Battle in West Europe
                  Americans attack with 1 infantry
                  Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 8 armour and 3 infantry
                      Americans roll dice for 1 battleship in West Europe, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                      Americans roll dice for 1 infantry in West Europe, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                      Germans roll dice for 8 armour and 3 infantry in West Europe, round 2 : 2/11 hits, 3.67 expected hits
                      1 infantry owned by the Americans lost in West Europe
                  Germans win with 8 armour and 3 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -3
                  Casualties for Americans: 1 infantry
      
          Non Combat Move - Americans
              2 fighters moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to East Europe
              1 infantry moved from Karelia S.S.R. to East Europe
              1 fighter moved from Yakut S.S.R. to East Europe
              5 infantry moved from West US to West Canada
              1 bomber moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Karelia S.S.R.
      
          Place Units - Americans
              1 transport placed in East US Sea Zone
              1 armour and 5 infantry placed in West US
      
          Turn Complete - Americans
              Americans collect 35 PUs; end with 38 PUs
      

      Combat Hit Differential Summary :

      Germans : -2.00
      Americans : -0.67
      

      Savegame

      posted in Play Boardgames
      A
      Avin
    • RE: Classic 2nd edition, Avin (Allies) vs AcesWild (Axis), no bid

      TripleA Turn Summary: British round 3

      TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Classic, version: 2.0

      Game History

      Round: 3
      
          Purchase Units - British
              British buy 8 infantry and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
      
          Combat Move - British
              1 infantry moved from Anglo Sudan Egypt to French Equatorial Africa
                    British take French Equatorial Africa from Germans
              1 infantry moved from Karelia S.S.R. to East Europe
              1 fighter moved from Karelia S.S.R. to East Europe
              1 infantry moved from Persia to Caucasus
              1 armour moved from Syria Jordan to Caucasus
              2 infantry moved from India to Sinkiang
              2 fighters moved from Yakut S.S.R. to Sinkiang
              1 bomber moved from Persia to East Europe
              1 transport moved from North Sea Zone to East Canada Sea Zone
              1 infantry moved from West Canada to East Canada Sea Zone
              1 infantry and 1 transport moved from East Canada Sea Zone to North Sea Zone
              1 infantry moved from North Sea Zone to West Europe
      
          Combat - British
              Battle in West Europe
                  British attack with 1 infantry
                  Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 8 armour and 3 infantry
                      British roll dice for 1 battleship in West Europe, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                      British roll dice for 1 infantry in West Europe, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                      Germans roll dice for 8 armour and 3 infantry in West Europe, round 2 : 4/11 hits, 3.67 expected hits
                      1 infantry owned by the British lost in West Europe
                  Germans win with 8 armour and 3 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -3
                  Casualties for British: 1 infantry
              Battle in Sinkiang
                  British attack with 2 fighters and 2 infantry
                  Japanese defend with 1 infantry
                      British roll dice for 2 fighters and 2 infantry in Sinkiang, round 2 : 0/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                      Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in Sinkiang, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                      British roll dice for 2 fighters and 2 infantry in Sinkiang, round 3 : 3/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                      Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in Sinkiang, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                      1 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Sinkiang
                  British win, taking Sinkiang from Japanese with 2 fighters and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                  Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry
              Battle in East Europe
                  British attack with 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 1 infantry
                  Germans defend with 1 infantry
                      British roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 1 infantry in East Europe, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                      Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in East Europe, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                      1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in East Europe
                  British win, taking East Europe from Germans with 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                  Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
              Battle in Caucasus
                  British attack with 1 armour and 1 infantry
                  Germans defend with 1 infantry
                      British roll dice for 1 armour and 1 infantry in Caucasus, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                      Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Caucasus, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                      1 infantry owned by the British lost in Caucasus
                      British roll dice for 1 armour in Caucasus, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                      Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Caucasus, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                      1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Caucasus
                  British win, taking Caucasus from Germans with 1 armour remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                  Casualties for British: 1 infantry
                  Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
      
          Non Combat Move - British
              2 fighters moved from Sinkiang to Yakut S.S.R.
              1 fighter moved from East Europe to Russia
              1 bomber moved from East Europe to Karelia S.S.R.
              2 infantry moved from United Kingdom to North Sea Zone
              2 infantry moved from United Kingdom to North Sea Zone
              4 infantry moved from North Sea Zone to Finland Norway
      
          Place Units - British
              2 transports placed in North Sea Zone
              8 infantry placed in United Kingdom
      
          Turn Complete - British
              British collect 35 PUs; end with 35 PUs
      

      Combat Hit Differential Summary :

      Germans : 0.33
      British : -1.00
      Japanese : -0.67
      

      Savegame

      posted in Play Boardgames
      A
      Avin
    • RE: Classic 2nd edition, Avin (Allies) vs AcesWild (Axis), no bid

      Will do. I always feel like I have to triple check what I’m doing with every action for these, because I’m paranoid that I’ll send out the save before remembering one unit off on the opposite end of the map as the rest of my troops. Particularly with the UK!

      posted in Play Boardgames
      A
      Avin
    • RE: Classic 2nd edition, Avin (Allies) vs AcesWild (Axis), no bid

      TripleA Turn Summary: Russians round 3

      TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Classic, version: 2.0

      Game History

      Round: 3
      
          Purchase Units - Russians
              Russians buy 2 armour and 5 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
      
          Non Combat Move - Russians
              1 transport moved from North Sea Zone to West Spain Sea Zone
              1 submarine moved from North Sea Zone to West Spain Sea Zone
              1 infantry moved from Karelia S.S.R. to Ukraine S.S.R.
              1 infantry moved from Karelia S.S.R. to Caucasus
      
          Place Units - Russians
              2 infantry placed in Russia
              3 infantry placed in Karelia S.S.R.
              2 armour placed in Russia
      
          Turn Complete - Russians
              Russians collect 25 PUs; end with 25 PUs
      

      Combat Hit Differential Summary :

      Savegame

      posted in Play Boardgames
      A
      Avin
    • RE: Classic 2nd edition, Avin (Allies) vs AcesWild (Axis), no bid

      TripleA Turn Summary: Americans round 2

      TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Classic, version: 2.0

      Game History

      Round: 2
      
          Purchase Units - Americans
              Americans buy 6 infantry and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
      
          Combat Move - Americans
              1 transport moved from North Sea Zone to East Canada Sea Zone
              2 infantry moved from West Canada to East Canada Sea Zone
              2 infantry and 1 transport moved from East Canada Sea Zone to West Spain Sea Zone
              2 infantry moved from West Spain Sea Zone to Algeria
              2 fighters moved from North Sea Zone to Algeria
              2 infantry moved from Novosibirsk to Sinkiang
              1 fighter moved from Yakut S.S.R. to Sinkiang
              1 bomber moved from Russia to Algeria
      
          Combat - Americans
              Battle in Algeria
                  Americans attack with 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 2 infantry
                  Germans defend with 1 bomber and 2 infantry
                      Americans roll dice for 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 2 infantry in Algeria, round 2 : 3/5 hits, 2.00 expected hits
                      Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 2 infantry in Algeria, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                      2 infantry owned by the Germans, 1 bomber owned by the Germans and 2 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Algeria
                  Americans win with 1 bomber and 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 15
                  Casualties for Americans: 2 infantry
                  Casualties for Germans: 1 bomber and 2 infantry
              Battle in Sinkiang
                  Americans attack with 1 fighter and 2 infantry
                  Japanese defend with 1 infantry
                      Americans roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Sinkiang, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                      Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in Sinkiang, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                      Americans roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Sinkiang, round 3 : 0/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                      Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in Sinkiang, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                      1 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Sinkiang
                      Americans roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Sinkiang, round 4 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                      Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in Sinkiang, round 4 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                      1 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Sinkiang
                   retreated to Sinkiang
                  Japanese win with 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -6
                  Casualties for Americans: 2 infantry
      
          Non Combat Move - Americans
              1 fighter moved from Sinkiang to Yakut S.S.R.
              2 infantry moved from Finland Norway to Karelia S.S.R.
              1 battleship, 1 carrier, 1 submarine and 1 transport moved from West Panama Sea Zone to East US Sea Zone
              3 infantry moved from West US to West Canada
              2 infantry moved from East US to West US
              1 armour moved from West US to West Canada
              2 fighters moved from Algeria to North Sea Zone
              1 bomber moved from Algeria to French West Africa
      
          Place Units - Americans
              6 infantry placed in West US
              Americans undo move 1.
              2 infantry placed in East US
              2 transports placed in East US Sea Zone
              2 infantry placed in East US
              2 infantry placed in West US
              Americans undo move 3.
              1 infantry placed in East US
              1 infantry placed in West US
      
          Turn Complete - Americans
              Americans collect 31 PUs; end with 31 PUs
      

      Combat Hit Differential Summary :

      Germans : 1.17
      Americans : -1.33
      Japanese : 1.00
      

      Savegame

      posted in Play Boardgames
      A
      Avin
    • RE: Classic 2nd edition, Avin (Allies) vs AcesWild (Axis), no bid

      @AcesWild5049 Sub please. I’ll take the chance to get a hit on the bomber again on this theater too. ;)

      posted in Play Boardgames
      A
      Avin
    • RE: Classic 2nd edition, Avin (Allies) vs AcesWild (Axis), no bid

      @AcesWild5049

      Consider first a bomber versus 1 transport. 1/6 chance the transport gets a hit regardless of whether the bomber does or not. If the transport does not get a hit (5/6), then the bomber gets a hit with 2/3 odds, so the conditional probability there would be 10/18ths chance that the battle ends immediately with the bomber surviving. Rather than summing the infinite series for each subsequent round you can just add the probabilities for the battle ending (1/6 + 10/18 = 13/18) and divide both of the above by the total: so in other words, 10/13ths chance for the bomber to win, and 3/13ths chance for the bomber to die (whether the transport wins or not; it’s of course 2/13ths for the transport to die and 1/13ths for the transport to survive). So there’s a slightly lower than 1/4 chance for the bomber to die against a transport.

      Then back to the two transport s, on the first round there’s a (5/6)^2 =25/36 chance of both missing, so there’s then an 11/36 (or 33/108) chance of either hitting, which would end the battle regardless of whether the bomber hits or not. If the transports miss and the bomber hits (25/36*2/3=50/108) then that reduces to the previous scenario. And then the remainder would be the case where both misses, so like above let’s skip summing the series: so 33/83 chance for the transports to hit, 50/83 chance for the bomber to hit. In the latter case, given the previous result we know that there’s still a bit less than 1/4 chance for the bomber to die, so let’s say 12/83. That gives the total probability for the bomber to die as 43/83, which is slightly greater than 1/2.

      This math seems to check out if you use the TripleA battle calculator: if you enter 1 bomber versus 2 transports, it says the average attacker units left is 0.45 or so (varying depending on random results).

      posted in Play Boardgames
      A
      Avin
    • RE: Classic 2nd edition, Avin (Allies) vs AcesWild (Axis), no bid

      TripleA Turn Summary: British round 2

      TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Classic, version: 2.0

      Game History

      Round: 2
      
          Purchase Units - British
              British buy 5 infantry and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
      
          Combat Move - British
              2 infantry moved from United Kingdom to North Sea Zone
              2 infantry moved from North Sea Zone to West Europe
              1 infantry moved from Sinkiang to French Indo China
                    British take French Indo China from Japanese
              1 bomber moved from Russia to Anglo Sudan Egypt
              2 infantry moved from Kenya-Rhodesia to Anglo Sudan Egypt
              1 fighter moved from Karelia S.S.R. to West Europe
              1 infantry moved from Persia to Syria Jordan
              1 armour moved from Persia to Syria Jordan
      
          Combat - British
              Battle in Anglo Sudan Egypt
                  British attack with 1 bomber and 2 infantry
                  Germans defend with 1 armour and 1 infantry
                      British roll dice for 1 bomber and 2 infantry in Anglo Sudan Egypt, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                      Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 1 infantry in Anglo Sudan Egypt, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                      1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Anglo Sudan Egypt
                      British roll dice for 1 bomber and 2 infantry in Anglo Sudan Egypt, round 3 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                      Germans roll dice for 1 armour in Anglo Sudan Egypt, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                      1 armour owned by the Germans and 1 infantry owned by the British lost in Anglo Sudan Egypt
                  British win, taking Anglo Sudan Egypt from Germans with 1 bomber and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 5
                  Casualties for Germans: 1 armour and 1 infantry
                  Casualties for British: 1 infantry
              Battle in West Europe
                  British attack with 1 fighter and 2 infantry
                  Germans defend with 1 infantry
                      British roll dice for 1 battleship in West Europe, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                      Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in West Europe, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                      1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in West Europe
                  British win, taking West Europe from Germans with 1 fighter and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                  Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
              Battle in Syria Jordan
                  British attack with 1 armour and 1 infantry
                  Germans defend with 1 infantry
                      British roll dice for 1 armour and 1 infantry in Syria Jordan, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                      Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Syria Jordan, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                      1 infantry owned by the Germans and 1 infantry owned by the British lost in Syria Jordan
                  British win, taking Syria Jordan from Germans with 1 armour remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                  Casualties for British: 1 infantry
                  Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
      
          Non Combat Move - British
              1 fighter moved from Russia to Yakut S.S.R.
              1 fighter moved from Sinkiang to Yakut S.S.R.
              1 infantry moved from India to Persia
              2 infantry moved from Australia to West Australia Sea Zone
              2 infantry and 1 transport moved from West Australia Sea Zone to Indian Ocean Sea Zone
              1 submarine moved from East Compass Sea Zone to Indian Ocean Sea Zone
              2 infantry moved from Indian Ocean Sea Zone to India
              1 infantry moved from Finland Norway to Karelia S.S.R.
              1 fighter moved from West Europe to Karelia S.S.R.
              1 bomber moved from Anglo Sudan Egypt to Persia
      
          Place Units - British
              5 infantry placed in United Kingdom
              2 transports placed in North Sea Zone
      
          Turn Complete - British
              British collect 40 PUs; end with 40 PUs
      

      Combat Hit Differential Summary :

      Germans : 0.33
      British : 0.67
      

      Savegame

      posted in Play Boardgames
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      Avin
    • RE: Classic 2nd edition, Avin (Allies) vs AcesWild (Axis), no bid

      Sure that’s fine.

      As a side note, I was curious if you would go after the transports with your bomber, and I’m not surprised you did given a comment you made in one of your videos that I recently saw. I find it interesting that you seem to be very conservative about larger battles that you engage in, but when one or two units are involved you are willing to play much riskier. I’m the opposite way; I’d almost never got after 2 transports with a lone bomber (because you have >50% odds to lose the bomber) but will more readily try a larger battle that is likely to go on for multiple rounds, because if the first round isn’t in my favor I can easily retreat and cut my losses.

      posted in Play Boardgames
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      Avin
    • RE: Classic 2nd edition, Avin (Allies) vs AcesWild (Axis), no bid

      TripleA Turn Summary: Russians round 2

      TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Classic, version: 2.0

      Game History

      Round: 2
      
          Research Technology - Russians
      
          Purchase Units - Russians
              Russians buy 3 armour and 3 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
      
          Combat Move - Russians
              1 infantry moved from Caucasus to Ukraine S.S.R.
                    Russians take Ukraine S.S.R. from Germans
      
          Combat - Russians
      
          Non Combat Move - Russians
              1 armour moved from Novosibirsk to Yakut S.S.R.
              1 aaGun moved from Caucasus to Russia
      
          Place Units - Russians
              3 infantry placed in Karelia S.S.R.
              3 armour placed in Russia
      
          Turn Complete - Russians
              Russians collect 25 PUs; end with 25 PUs
      

      Combat Hit Differential Summary :

      Savegame

      posted in Play Boardgames
      A
      Avin
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