Best posts made by Arthur Bomber Harris

@ShadowHAwk not sure that I would want to play a 40+ round world domination game with stalemates in so many portions of the world. I assume that bombers would become the meta, being able to project power into so many theaters and preventing your opponent’s fleet from splitting to two forces.

OOB is just fine if you are relatively new to the game and playing face-to-face with no battle calculators. Eventually someone will make a mistake or two, and the game will be quickly over. The issue is with PBEM games where you can battle calc every possible option and figure out how many fighters will be required in Moscow to shift the odds from 50% up to 90%. That gives the Axis such a big advantage as they are the aggressor during the critical first 8 turns.

@trulpen I am so confused why you didn’t buy 4 art with China?

Back from Celebes

@Aaron_the_Warmonger. So much can go wrong the 1st turn for the Axis: failed attack in Paris, lost airforce in a failed Atlantic attack, scramble in the Med that goes horribly wrong, or Yunnan holds. Depending on your level of aggressiveness, there is about a 10% chance of a stinky first round as each of those battles can have a couple percent chance of messing up your game plans. The very top players often avoid this issue by being super conservative on the first round, but then have to outplay the opponent during later turns to make up for the slow start.

I think the 1 reroll is a good balance for face-to-face games where there are usually three or four absolutely critical battles during the game and you don’t want to have “lost” an entire day by getting diced or the opponent gets diced.

@trulpen The best way to dissuade Japan from attacking the China stack is by having enough offensive power so that he can’t put a good stack of infantry next to it. The art build makes it virtually impossible for him to stand toe-to-toe in an adjacent territory. You have one less unit than the inf build, but he is not going to be able to threaten it for the foreseeable future.

Do review the history. He intentionally skipped the Hunan attack on J1. The only reason I see for this would be if he is planning on skipping China and instead focusing on moving his Japanese units into Russia and the Middle East. India, when attacked, will be an amphibious landing. I don’t see him getting enough forces to Burma any time soon to survive a counterattack by India.

no problem. We can continue after your other games, or abandon the series if you have lost interest. My apologies for the long gap.

which brings up the fun option of sending in fighters to attack with an unlikely landing spot. For example, lets say Japan has 8 transports in the Sea of Japan, but a massive fleet stationed a zone away making it hard for your Allied fleet to create a valid landing spot. You can attack the massive IJN fleet with a single sub which “in theory” could win the battle, and send a fighter to attack the transports with the potential option to land back in the zone that the sub opened up.

The transports are sunk, the allied sub is lost, and sadly there is no valid landing zone so the fighter crashes after the not-completely kamikaze mission. TripleA handles this correctly.

It will get ugly for Russia soon. Stopping the Japanese advancing even further west will be a challenge after India falls, and of course you can’t ignore Germany and Italy. Here is what the board looked like in a previous Andrew game where he abandoned China. It is a bit different because he headed his Japanese troops South instead of West. triplea_34892_jap4.tsvg

@gamerman01

I would prefer playing Pacifier or another top-4 person for the play-in if that is possible.

I have seen an increasing number of top players focused on KGF with ANZAC turtling for much of the game. It truly is hard for Japan to capture Australia or Hawaii with just a little bit of USA assistance. Fighters are such a great unit since they provide so much protection on defense, can threaten fleets with a few sacrificial subs, and can strafe ground units. Never underestimate the strafe against Japan as ground units are so precious. Often I will sacrifice USA planes for Japan infantry. A 1:2 exchange can still be a strategic victory for the United States.

Let him have Leningrad. It is a lost cause at this point. Thank goodness it is a practice game. Best to get these horrible die rolls out at this stage. Almost to a point of desperation in this game as you are so far behind “normal” even for a no-bid game.

It1.tsvg

no problem. Good start to the game.

Game History

Round: 1

    Purchase Units - Italians
        Italians buy 1 armour and 1 mech_infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Italians
        2 artilleries and 2 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Yugoslavia
        1 submarine moved from 95 Sea Zone to 93 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Ethiopia to Anglo Egyptian Sudan
              Italians take Anglo Egyptian Sudan from British
        1 infantry moved from Italian Somaliland to British Somaliland
              Italians take British Somaliland from British
        1 armour, 1 artillery, 3 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Tobruk to Alexandria
              Italians take Alexandria from British
        1 armour and 2 infantry moved from Albania to Greece
        1 transport moved from 97 Sea Zone to 96 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Libya to 96 Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 96 Sea Zone to 97 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 97 Sea Zone to Greece
        1 transport moved from 95 Sea Zone to 97 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Southern Italy to 97 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Southern Italy to 97 Sea Zone
        1 cruiser moved from 95 Sea Zone to 93 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from 97 Sea Zone to Greece
        1 infantry moved from 97 Sea Zone to Greece
        1 bomber moved from Northern Italy to 93 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Southern Italy to 93 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 95 Sea Zone to 96 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Southern Italy to 96 Sea Zone

    Combat - Italians
        Battle in Greece
            Italians attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 5 infantry
            Neutral_Allies defend with 4 infantry
                Italians roll dice for 1 battleship and 1 cruiser in Greece, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                Italians roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 5 infantry in Greece, round 2 : 3/7 hits, 1.83 expected hits
                Neutral_Allies roll dice for 4 infantry in Greece, round 2 : 3/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                4 infantry owned by the Neutral_Allies and 3 infantry owned by the Italians lost in Greece
            Italians win, taking Greece from Neutral_Allies with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Italians: 3 infantry
            Casualties for Neutral_Allies: 4 infantry
        Battle in Yugoslavia
            Italians attack with 2 artilleries and 2 infantry
            Neutral_Allies defend with 1 infantry
                Italians roll dice for 2 artilleries and 2 infantry in Yugoslavia, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                Neutral_Allies roll dice for 1 infantry in Yugoslavia, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Neutral_Allies and 1 infantry owned by the Italians lost in Yugoslavia
            Italians win, taking Yugoslavia from Neutral_Allies with 2 artilleries and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Italians: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Neutral_Allies: 1 infantry
        Battle in 96 Sea Zone
            Italians attack with 1 destroyer and 1 fighter
            British defend with 1 submarine
                Italians roll dice for 1 destroyer and 1 fighter in 96 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 submarine in 96 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                1 submarine owned by the British lost in 96 Sea Zone
            Italians win with 1 destroyer and 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
            Casualties for British: 1 submarine
        Battle in 93 Sea Zone
            Italians attack with 1 bomber, 1 cruiser, 1 fighter and 1 submarine
            French defend with 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer
                Italians roll dice for 1 submarine in 93 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Italians roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 cruiser and 1 fighter in 93 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                French roll dice for 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer in 93 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                1 destroyer owned by the French, 1 cruiser owned by the French and 1 submarine owned by the Italians lost in 93 Sea Zone
            Italians win, taking 93 Sea Zone from Neutral with 1 bomber, 1 cruiser and 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 14
            Casualties for Italians: 1 submarine
            Casualties for French: 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer

    Non Combat Move - Italians
        1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from 93 Sea Zone to Southern Italy
        1 armour moved from Northern Italy to Romania
        1 fighter moved from 96 Sea Zone to Southern Italy
        1 aaGun moved from Northern Italy to Yugoslavia
        1 aaGun moved from Northern Italy to Yugoslavia
        3 infantry moved from Southern Italy to Northern Italy

    Place Units - Italians
        1 armour and 1 mech_infantry placed in Northern Italy
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Italians from Southern Italy: 1 aaGun
        EDIT: Adding units owned by Italians to Northern Italy: 1 aaGun
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

    Turn Complete - Italians
        Italians collect 15 PUs; end with 15 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

French regular : 0.17
Italians regular : 4.83
Neutral_Allies regular : 2.33
British regular : -0.17

It1.tsvg

I get around a 94% odds in the Taranto battle if you go all-in. Usually the Axis chooses not to scramble and either takes out the UK fleet with the Italians on I1 or the Germans on G2. The biggest question will be how many Axis planes are lost in the battles, with outcomes ranging from 0 to 5.

If half of the German air force is lost in the first couple of rounds, the game shifts dramatically with Moscow not being in danger for a much longer time and the Allies able to land forces in W Europe way earlier. In the OOB rules in PBEM games, the Allies are at such a massive disadvantage that they need to pray for an early turn dicing to have any chance of winning. Avoiding major conflicts just ensures that Moscow will fall around G6, followed by an inevitable economic victory for the Axis if they choose one of the long-term strategies like Dark Skies.

Get in big battles early if you are playing Allies and don’t wait until you have overwhelming odds, since that will never come against a strong opponent. Sometimes you have to opt for battles with only a 25% chance of a favorable Allied outcome since that can be as good as it gets.

I haven’t followed this match for a while, and am impressed by the progress that the Allies have made. The top priority should be killing the Italian fleet and convoy raiding the Med to the point where Italy has no income. You should be able to wipe out the fleet on UK6 and start obliterating the income on turn 7.

Build another sub or two in the Med this round.

@flyingbadger now worries, just a game. Take your time as needed

@Stough It takes about 5 games to even get the basic principles, 50 games to become good, and 500 games to become a “master”. There are so many nuances to the strategies and mistakes take a long time to reveal themselves. An incorrect move on round 1 will have dramatic consequences on your options on turn 7+ because the advantages help produce even more advantages later on. That one extra plane will not only destroy so many units over the course of the game, but also give you extra income to buy more planes.

After you play a few games and get the basics, watch the moves that experts make in their games and see how the matches play out over the next turns. When you see a good Axis opening, memorize it and use it frequently until you master it. Then try a different Axis opening.

@oysteilo The Axis certainly has made progress, but considering that the Allies had an atrocious first round of inaction the game has tightened up a bit. The Western front is not worth fighting right now for the Allies, and won’t be able to be held until the Italian income is beaten down.

I do think the income game will be very close if the Allies can convoy raid the Med and East Asia. That should be the top priority over trying to advance any major landings.

bold move. Let’s see how fate likes you today.

Max scramble, kamikaze each Destroyer and Cruiser.

@taamvan I always send my Japanese navy South on a J1 DOW, but there is a fair number of forces that could return back to SZ6 or SZ17 on J2 if the United States wanted to send out their tiny force to those areas. I don’t understand why they would want to sacrifice their Pearl Harbor fleet for virtually no gain.

do check out the standard J1 attack plans since the details are quite important. It is devastating in an OOB match.

I would suggest a true bid for the Allies, likely in the Allies+69 to balance out the match. I am willing to accept Axis under those terms if people want to play against me.

Default settings for bidding:

Limit one bid unit in a territory or sea zone.

The nation placing a unit in a territory or sea zone must have started with a unit in said territory or sea zone prior to placing the bid.

China is limited to bid units of: Infantry, Artillery and/or Fighters (the units China is legally able to purchase or start the game with.) These units are still limited to movement/placement restrictions of Chinese units.