I think you should be able to beat tier 3’s and 4’s and possibly 2’s, AeV. I mean, just playing as well as you did against me. I guess I played 2 mid tier-2’s recently and they both fared a little better than you, but not much better.
The J2 in China killed you. Like I already said, you probably would have got away with it against a lesser player - I think most would have attacked Yunnan to get the NO and not tried attacking your stack on Kwe. But I made the right move and attacked the stack with everything and I got good luck. That combination there was the killer.
Japanese forward ground units in the first several rounds of the game are GOLD. The Allies should as a general rule be willing to take risky and desperate shots against all Japanese ground units on the fronts - in China and on islands. So one of the biggest lessons from this game I think is to keep being aggressive with Japan like you were, but be a little more careful not to give the Allies a shot at you. <50% odds of the Allies on your stack might not be acceptable. The conventional wisdom of “as long as they lose more than me” doesn’t work so well in some situations in G40, and this is one of the best examples of that.
I had a 57% with an expected -6.68 TUV swing. A lot of players wouldn’t attack there, but like I said it was the right move. Your aggressive move to Kwe forced me to attack, because to stand aside is to let Japan split the Allies in half and drive for India or mop up China.
I hope you don’t feel like I’m beating you over the head with it, but in my opinion that was single most critical decision of this game. I got great luck there too, and that really hurt you (although you took Kwe back, killing the 5 Chinese survivors with zero casualties to Japan), but even if I didn’t get great luck, it would have weakened Japan’s stack sufficiently to really protect India for quite awhile.