I think this great for judging dices odds on ONE battle.
What is wrong with your strat exemple, or should I say MY strat, is that :
- It does not reflect in any way a lowluck setting in which context the strat was written
- It does not consider possibilities like straffing
- It does not consider the casulaties taken by the ennemy
- It does not consider the importance of each battle but rather try to multiply the sums of all moves as if each battles are equally important ( which is simply UNTRUE )
- It is based on triple A simulator
- It does not take in account the fact you CAN choose the order in which you do your battles. Calling off an attack after a failure somewhere else is possible. You can retreat when there is no point…
- Are you willin to take risks, if not, did you read the alternative plan?
My goal in that strat is simple, Take and Hold Karelia.
There is only 3 Battles in there that are MUST win and they must be resolved in THAT order.
Using low luck, I will use triple A calculator like you did.
- 1st : Sinking the BB/TR ( Pull out a sub, and send the bomber if you are too scared with 85%. It will be 100% )
- 2nd: Taking Baltic States ( it’s 100% odds, not 96.3%… )
- 3rd: Taking Leningrad 92% odds ( it’s not 79%, sim it again )
So anywhere between 78.2% to 92% odds of success…
Also let’s be clear, while you would try to round up your odds in thoses 3 battles to 92% by sending bomber on the BB, my bomber would go to Leningrad making it 100% instead and I’d risk the whole thing at 85% ( 100% x 100% x 85% ). Why? Because i’d resolve the sea battle first and already would have a clear idea either or not go the whole ten yards aka straffing or taking it.
Still, let’s take a look at WHY it is 100% win sending the bomber. Your Bomber, fighter and one sub fight against a BB. If we go by theses ‘‘statistics’’, the battle is at 93-97% when in fact it’s 100% win Low luck. There is NO way around it.
Let’s do the “maths”: 4+3 = 7. That’s 1 automatic hit, and 1/6 for a possible second hit. PLUS 2/6 for the sub in yet another possible hit. Let’s say everything miss and the damaged BB hit back. The sub goes, another automatic hit goes in, the BB hit back again before sinking, the fighter goes. Worst case scenario, still 100% win.
Now, Why is Baltic States 100%? The fact is that in low luck you have a minimum and maximum number of hit you can do as well as the notion of automatic hits. 3 russian inf will invariably yield 1 hit vs the german 2 inf/3tanks. Even if you would not roll anything for germans and Russia would hit every round despite losses, it would go like this:
2inf/3tanks vs 3 inf
1inf/3tanks vs 2 inf
3tanks vs 1 inf
2 tanks win, worst case scenario.
It’s not odds, it’s a SURE thing as far as winning. The odds are there to estimate how many losses you will sustain in the attack.
The strat was written in the context of low luck, so I will not debate it outside of the context.
Edited: typo and missed sentence.