@bigbadgoo:
@Adlertag:
If Spain had joined Germany, then Portugal would had joined the Allies, and then the Allies would have attacked and utterly destroyed Spain. And even if Germany had won the battle, what was the benefit ? No oil in Spain. No oil in UK. In 1940 UK was a little island short of resources, actually the brits was dependet on convoys to survive. So if Germany did conquer UK, they would only get 50 000 000 more hungry mouths to feed, and a poor island with a lot of fog. Only USA would benefit from a weak UK. So what would be the big idea ?
I doubt Portugal would have joined the the Allies. If you recall, Salazar, the right-wing dictator was in power there and had sent over 10,000 troops to fight with the Nationalists in the Spanish Civil War. He would have certainly followed Franco’s lead and either joined as well, looking for some tempting colonial exploits in Africa or at the very least remained a fairly hostile neutral to the Allies.
While I see your point that Salazar might have been tempted by fascist block overtures, it’s hard to imagine Portugal waging war on Great Britain, its ally for centuries. Portugal had fought against the Germans in World War One.
Hard to say for sure but I think if Spain joins the Axis and UK invades Spain then Portugal either insists on neutrality or joins the Allies.
The only way Portugal joins the Axis is if they declared neutrality but Great Britain seizes the military assets anyway, giving Salazar an excuse to throw in with the Axis.
In any case it would have been a challenge to drum up popular support in either Spain or Portugal for the Axis war of conquest. If the Allies gained control of a large portion of the peninsula, Franco’s regime could easily collapse.