the political leadership of russia may have been toppled, Russia was never conquered during wwI .
The military setbacks directly led to the political instability because the soldiers gave up hope for victory and mutiny was rampant. If the Russians did well enough the Czar would have wielded more power to stabilize his army. Its the very same thing that happened to the Imperial German army in 1918 and its kreigsmarine that mutiny was everywhere, because the war was not going well enough. The Russians actually refuted the original German proposal and the Germans marched in as far as smolensk and near St Petersburg, until they accepted terms.
my understanding is that hitler thought that he had to take the ukraine in order to gain supplies of food and materials nescessary for the continuation of the war further to the east.
Hitler thought alot of things and changed his priorities many times and always invariably making the worst decision, except the stand order of no retreat in the winter of 1941, but this was after she lost her chance to end the war. Hitler should have let Manstein run the war and it would have been over.
i don’t think the armies that were sent by hitler to attack kiev would have been enough to capture moscow.
The Germans had wasted Guderians talents for 2 weeks when they were like 50 miles away, then sent the best mobile force south. Stalin’s posture during the period was to hold the cities and Kiev was the major city for Ukraine, so the capture of Moscow would have also led to the loss of the same Soviet armies at Kiev after Guderian would hook south.
Also after Vyazma, the Germans had clear superiority over the forces in front of Moscow.