Honestly, I really have not play tested the 6 bomber strategy against Russia.
I think it would probably work better in a KJF game because it would take America a turn just to catch up to Japan and then Japan would get defensive advantage anyway. But that’s just my personal opinion on the matter.
As for “luck” I believe it would be safe to say that if you budget a loss of 9 IPC a round (33 Bombers) to do 12 IPC a round in damage (43 Bombers) you should be able to recuperate your losses when they occur. But yes, it seems pretty obvious that 100% accurate AA Guns or 100% inaccurate AA Guns would impact the strategy and there is just no way around that in an ADS (using Actual Dice vs LL) game.
The sticking point would really be whether or not it is better for Germany to buy the one bomber on Germany 1 or both bombers. Technically, Germany can easily afford 2 bombers (especially if you have 42 IPC on Round 1 because of a bid allowing 2 Bombers, 4 Infantry) but it may be better to stagger the purchase over two rounds. (With replacements every few rounds which can be saved up by spending 5 IPC less than your income each round.)
Just my opinion on the matter. I do happen to like the theory behind this because it would limit the amount of money you need to dedicate to feet on the street (infantry) and maximize your resistance to America and England. Of course, America and England can retaliate against Germany with their own bombers topping damage at 32 IPC a round vs the 24 Russia would be taking.