Right, but that does look like a KJF game, at least from the first few turns and a US IC was added too.
Some of the early posts regarding vacating India are working on the assumption of a KGF.
As for the bid discussion, without a bid the Axis have absolutely no margin for error, and still they will lose waaaaay more games than the Allies. I’d probably put it at 80-90% win for the Allies in a no-bid game.
The bid just make G1 a little more comfortable and gives you some more options on both G1 and G2.
It is probably safe to assume if you take Egy with 2 units or less, you’ll get countered there, and potentially 3 units or less with UK bringing down the bomber.
In this case India isn’t an issue since UK can still potentially counter on UK 2 with 2 inf and 1 bom. Or you leave 1 inf behind forcing Japan to bring in 2 to attack, which weakens the assault on China.
Either way Germany is slowed in Afr early and Japan’s early inf are being nit-picked down so that they aren’t going to be a serious threat to Mos for several turns. Which is all the Allies need to sink the Baltic fleet in Rd 2 and the Med fleet in rd 3 or 4. After that, it is over, esp if Japan isn’t even seriously threatening Novo/Kaz with a big stack.