Germany can try to take out all the ships, but you are likely going to lose some air on G1.
You are also going to run into trouble in Afr. If you send a sub to help take out the BB off Gib that means sub/trn Plus air to take out 1 sub, 2 trns, 1 bb in the UK sz. That also means 1 bb/trn vs. 1 sub to send reinforcements into Egy, but if the UK sub hits in Def (33%) that is bad news right off the bat. Then you still have the pesky trn off Ecan where you need air. Germany can get into real trouble if they try to do too much. Now if you are going sub vs. trn in Eus you’re really spreading your self thin and risk disaster and you’ll probably lose multiple ftrs somewhere along the way.
As for UK, they’ll counter Egy bringing in the bom if nec.
Germany should lose its med fleet on UK 2.
UK/US can still hit Afr in Rd 2 and Nor in Rd 3 and by Rd4-5 you are looking at all three Allies in Kar.
Now Russia can start pushing back on Japan while the UK/US take out Germany.
So Japan has about 5 rds to take and hold Novo and do so with enough force to then take Moscow. It shouldn’t happen with a tactical retreat in the East by Russia and the US in the first few rds.
The Allies shouldn’t engage Japan unitl they try to take Novo, unless Japan got hammered on dice or something.
The Allies can also land in Spain if they want to go the WE route.
Germany can hold against Russia but they can’t hold against UK, US, AND Russia and can’t keep the seas clear without massive losses in the air which means Russia can be extremely aggressive.
With Russia Restricted you might also see a 3 inf, 3 arm buy so that Russia can be an offensive player right off the bat.
Which still means 15 inf, 6 arm, 2 ftrs in Kar (if my memory serves me correctly) and requires all German Air to try and crack, but now UK can counter on UK 1.
It is just extremely difficult as the Axis without at least a little help (usually in Afr) in terms of some extra units.